Nguyen et al. Wageningen University and Research and the Flemish Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food studied two key questions: how the demand for growth media can develop geographically by 2050, and whether there will be enough raw materials to meet this demand.
Growing media (also known as plant soil or substrate) are essential to modern horticulture, helping to cultivate food crops, tree seedlings, ornamentals and mushrooms on an industrial scale. They help to use water and nutrients efficiently and therefore play an important role in soilless farming systems around the world, providing food and well-being for millions of people.
“The growth of growing media market 2050 by 2050: demand and availability of rawmaterials”, published in Frontiers in Horticulture on May 26, updates the first global study by Chris Blok et al., Growing media for food and quality of life in the period 2020-2050 from 2021. The latest market data, improved estimates of new regional trends and additional estimates of new regional market availability collects
© Susann Warnecke
Growing demand for media could quadruple by 2050
The results indicate that global demand for growth media could increase by approximately 250-290% by 2050, confirming the growth scale of previous research. Particularly strong growth is expected in the ornamental and tree nursery sectors, with the highest growth expected in China (430-570%) and emerging markets in Asia, South America and Africa.
Using data from 2022 as a baseline, the researchers analyzed five market segments: food crops, ornamentals, tree nurseries, button mushrooms and the hobby market. In terms of components, the evaluation took into account eight main raw materials: peat, korea, wood fiber, bark, compost, mineral wool, perlite and aggregates.
Sufficient supply of materials is not guaranteed
The researchers evaluated the potential utility of raw materials in various scenarios. While sufficient material components are available to meet projected demand under the highest availability assumptions, the analysis also identifies a potential gap under more constrained conditions.
In a low-availability scenario, 17 million cubic meters of additional components would be needed by 2050. Therefore, identifying suitable new materials remains a key challenge for the sector. These forecasts assume that the supply industry and growing media infrastructure can scale enough to process all available raw materials.
The use of peat is reduced in percentage, but kept in the current volumes
According to the study, global peat extraction for horticulture is approximately 59 million cubic meters per year. By 2050, peat use in growing media is expected to remain in a similar range of 53-63 million cubic meters.
However, as demand for growing media increases and the use of other component materials expands, peat’s share of the overall growing media market is expected to decline from around 50% today to around 18-19% by 2050. Although the potential demand for peat may be significantly higher, the projected use of peat remains limited by the availability assumptions applied.
Future requirements
The authors emphasize that the study should be viewed as a framework for continuous evaluation, rather than as a fixed prediction. Future developments will depend on many factors, including market trends, technological advances, processing capabilities, economic conditions and the successful scaling up of raw material production. The findings also highlight the need for continued research to support future innovations in materials supply, processing technologies and resource efficiency.
The research was commissioned by the International Peatland Society (IPS) as part of an effort to understand developments in the growing media sector and their implications for the responsible management and use of peatlands and peatlands. Future developments in the sector are important in many aspects of peatland management, including site selection, impact mitigation, peat use, post-extraction land use and rewetting.
Full paper
Nguyen VTH, Blok C, Barbagli T, Zheng Z, Mondaca-Duarte F and Vandecasteele B (2026) Growing media market growth to 2050: demand and availability of raw materials. The front From there 5:1800056. https://doi.org/10.3389/fhort.2026.1800056
For more information:
International Peatland Association
https://peatlands.org/