Statistics Canada released October retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales decline from September levels, down 4.7% to C$451.7 million. This sequential decline was further reduced on a daily basis due to the higher number of days compared to the previous month. September, originally reported at C$475.0 million, was revised slightly lower to C$473.9 million. October sales fell 0.9% year-over-year, down from 8.3% in May, 7.5% in June and 6.2% in September. This was also below the 20.3% growth rate in August 2023 and equal to the previous lowest annual growth rate since the start of legalization, which was -0.9% in September 2024, and it was significantly down from the 9.1% growth in December. August’s record level was only 1.8% higher than last year’s index. Total sales are expected to grow 4.5% to C$5.39 billion in 2024 and 4.3% year-to-date in 2025.
An increase in the number of shops, as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market, have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales rose 0.1% from September and 3% from a year ago. Alberta grew 5.5% from September and 4% from a year ago. British Columbia was down 55.0% from September, as it was down 54% from a year ago, while Quebec was up 8.8% from September and 31% from a year ago.
November sales data will be released on January 23.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. The index fell 7.5% in December last year to close 15.2% lower for the year, and it was also a poor start to 2025. It hit a new all-time high of 4.97 on the last day of March, before falling back in early April. The index gained 11.5% in April, but ended the second quarter from there, closing at 5.02. Q3 was strong with increases in July and August, and September, which started with a pullback, ended with another increase before pulling back on the last day. The index ended September down just a little, before falling in October and even lower in November. It rose sharply in December, rising 8.4% to 6.59. While stocks rose, 13 of the index’s 28 names declined for the month.
After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 28 members, fell 27% year-to-date in June. After a 53.0 percent rally in the third quarter, the index increased by 11.6 percent compared to last year. It fell 14.2% in the 4th quarter and was down 4.2% for the full year.
Since its peak in February 2021, the global hemp stock index is down 92.9% from a closing high of 92.48.
The 3 strongest names in December, each an MSO, are all up more than 58%;
Each of these stocks were significantly up year-over-year, and Q4 earnings were positive for Trulieve.
December’s 3 weakest names are all down more than 8%;
All of these stocks were down year-over-year, and Q4 was brutal for each.
The index has been recalculated as of the close of 12/31/31 and is based on data as of 12/23/23. For Q1, the index will have 27 names, down from 28 names, with three removals and two additions. AFCG, LIEN and SHFS are excluded from the index. Akanda (AKAN) and cbdMD (YCBD) are rejoining the index.
We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indexes that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain: the American Cannabis Operator Index, the Ancillary Cannabis Index, and the Canadian Cannabis LP Index.
American Hemp Operator Index
ACOI rallied in December, rising 43.7% to 13.18. It rose 123.6% to 12.99 in the third quarter and ended the year up 57.7% year to date from 8.36. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) was a big laggard, up 23.9%.
December’s strongest stock was Trulieve, which gained 61.2%. The weakest, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ), rose 10.4%.
In January, the index will have eleven members, with the additions of Ascend Wellness (OTC: AAWH ), Grown Rogue (GRUSF ), and Vireo Health (OTC: VREOF ).
Auxiliary cannabis index
Ancillary commodities rose 2.4% in December as the index reached 11.09. The index, which rose 14.5% to 12.72 in the third quarter, fell 12.8% in the fourth quarter. It decreased by 19.5% from 13.77 in 2025.
The strongest performing stock in December was NewLake Capital (OTC: NLCP ), which rose 24.1%. The weakest, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (NASDAQ: REFI ), fell 3.9%.
In January, the index will have the same eight members and two that are returning: iPower (NASDAQ: IPW ) and Chicago Atlantic BDC (NASDAQ: LIEN ).
Canadian Hemp LP Index
Canadian LPs rose 5.4% in December as the index fell to 59.01. The index, which increased by 78.4% in the third quarter, reaching 73.56. Declined 19.8% in Q4, but rose 17.8% in 2025 from 50.11.
The strongest Canadian LP in December was MTL Cannabis (CSE: MTL ), which jumped 62.5% after receiving a buy order. The weakest performer was Aurora Cannabis, down 10.3%.
In January, the index will have the same thirteen members.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Statistics Canada released September retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales are on the rise from August levels, down 1.4% to C$475.0 million. This sequential decline increased on a daily basis due to fewer days compared to the previous month. August, originally reported at C$498.7 million, was revised slightly higher to C$503.1 million. Sales rose 6.6% in September from a year earlier, up from 8.3% in May and 7.5% in June. This was also below the 20.3% growth rate in August 2023 and above the previous lowest annual growth since the start of legalization in September 2024 of -0.9%, and it was significantly down from the 9.1% growth in December. In August, the record growth was only 1.8% higher than the index of the previous year. Total sales grew by 4.5% to C$5.39 billion in 2024 and 4.9% year-to-date in 2025.
An increase in the number of shops, as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market, have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales fell 5.0% from August and less than 1% from a year ago. Alberta was down 5.5% from August and 4% from a year ago. British Columbia was down 6.0% from August as it grew 1% a year ago, while Quebec was down 5.2% from August and up 48% from a year ago.
October sales data will be released on December 19.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
What a tough month it has been for the cannabis industry so far. While not as bad as last November, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 16% this month, and at 5.74 it is now down 16.6% year-to-date. I’ve been very cautious with my model portfolio at 420 Investor, which is down 2.6% so far in 2025, and I’ve been cautious here as well.
In August, the market rallied after President Trump said he was considering rescheduling cannabis. There has been no action for more than three months. If cannabis is moved to schedule III, it will disappear 280E tax. I called for it loudly in late 2022 in a newsletter here about essentials for hemp stocks.
I warned in the newsletter after Labor Day that several hemp stocks were in danger of falling significantlyand many have. I shared the Q3 earnings for the 23 stocks that were in the Global Hemp Stock Index at the time. The index now has 28 names, as we detailed back in late September two shares are subtracted and seven are added. In that newsletter from early September, I named 8 stocks that I was very concerned about. Here’s how they’ve performed since then.
While not all of them declined, as Village Farms continued to grow, the remaining seven were down at least 12.3%. The eight stocks I alerted readers to fell an average of 18.6%. The Global Hemp Stock Index fell 17.9%, while the MSOS ETF fell 35.1%. It is now down 21.5% year to date and remains too much of a risk for what it is investing in. In fact, there was redemption yesterday, with outstanding shares down 0.7%. Shares of 187.21 million were still up 43.4% year-to-date, with most of the increase coming in the third quarter.
Here is the full list of Global Hemp Stock Index members and their change in Q4 so far:
The 28 stocks fell an average of 25.3%, which is how much the index has fallen since it’s flat, with an average decline of 28.3%. MSOS is down 37.6% so far in the 4th quarter. The eight stocks I warned about in early September have one gainer, Village Farmers, but the other seven are all down more than the index. I’ve written negative articles on Seeking Alpha about several of these, including RYM, SNDL, and TLRY recently.
In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I currently have four stocks that are down more than 30% in Q4 and have gained in each of the positions this week. As it relates to the eight stocks I invited, I am no longer so negative on one of them (Canopy Growth, which I updated in an article published today looking for Alpha). The hemp sector has been very volatile, but it still appears to be in a bear market despite the huge rally from the lows.
Hemp stocks are crashing, but for many of them for good reasons from my perspective. The industry as a whole faces challenges, and there is no progress on two potential catalysts that I called for here three years ago: the elimination of 280E taxation, and large exchanges starting to list US hemp operators. Investors can make money by investing in the industry if 280E taxation is removed and other opportunities remain for companies outside the MSO space. However, investing in cannabis is quite risky.
Sincerely,
Alan:
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
