You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.
Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.
Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.
Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.
I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.
Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf
We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.
Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.
As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.
Happy New Year!
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
New Cannabis Ventures offers readers this easy-to-read exclusive summary of BDSA’s 15-state monthly cannabis sales data.
In January, cannabis sales decreased sequentially by 3.1%. In this review, we break down the results by state, starting with the western markets and then ending with the eastern markets. Overall, the BDSA estimates sales in 15 markets totaled $2.07 billion in January, up 4.6 percent from a year earlier. BDSA updated its Illinois numbers after the state recently changed the way it counts sales.
Western markets
BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. In December, annual growth was negative in 4 states. Growth in each of these states fell in succession.
Eastern markets
BDSA provides coverage for Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Annual growth in December ranged from -3.1% in Missouri to +37.6% in New York. Ohio began using adults in August, spurring growth. Note that Florida and Pennsylvania are medical markets only. On a daily basis, sequential gains declined in eight markets. Annual growth was negative in both markets and sharp in both states. We warned of a potential slowdown in Florida despite strong dispensary and unit volume growth due to competitive pressure.
For readers interested in a deeper look hemp markets in these fifteen states and more, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and product details, longer history and segmentation by product attributes, learn how BDSA Solutions can give you access to actionable data and analytics.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Illinois released sales figures for two months on Friday. The last time it released the data in November, the state did a major review of historical sales after a long delay, and it was updated to October. The previous report was for Cannabis for adults in May. The November document explained that the lack of data was due to the Metrc transition. “Sales tracking features in Metrc help retailers more accurately and reliably report actual sales, including all discounts and promotions at checkout. A careful review of past data shows that some initial discount prices were collected in previous months.” Here is the updated data until the end of 2025.
Statewide adult cannabis sales rose 5.6% sequentially to $116.6 million in December, up 2.2% on the day. Year-on-year growth was -23.9%, a slight improvement from November’s -26.1% growth. Here is a chart of adult sales over time:
After growing 106% in 2021, 13% in 2022 and 5% in 2023, annual sales for adults are set to grow 5.4% to $1.72 billion in 2024. In 2025, they decreased by 12.5% to $1.51 billion, which was lower than the total in 2022.
There hasn’t been an update from the state on medical cannabis in a while. The state exempts the sale separately from its medical plan, and April issue showed that sales fell 1.6% sequentially to $19.7 million, down 13.2% year over year.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
This week, Scotts Miracle-Gro, the largest stock in the Global Hemp Stock Index by market capitalization, announced that it has found a buyer for its Hawthorne Gardening Company business in Vireo Growth. This news first appeared in an online article published by the Wall Street Journaland then Vireo issued a press release like Scotts Miracle-Gro, which also reported in its fiscal 1st quarter.
The deal is not a done deal. Vireo called it a “non-binding memorandum of understanding” but did not discuss the terms of the deal or when it might close. Scotts Miracle-Gro, which had already told investors it was working on this type of deal, did not disclose Hawthorne’s financial results for the 1st quarter. Analysts didn’t really ask any questions about it during the conference. The WSJ article said Vireo is giving Scotts Miracle-Gro 13% of its stock in return, but neither company has disclosed that in their press releases or SEC filings.
I include SMG in my 420 Investor Focus List, but Vireo is not a member of that group. Vireo also failed to qualify for the Global Cannabis Stock Index due to its low trading volumes. As I detailed five weeks ago, The Vireo has grown very large in terms of revenue and its geographic focus. The stock was then at $0.625 and is now lower, closing at $0.55. On Christmas Eve, the decline was 12.0%, while the MSOS fell 10.1%.
Maybe investors are interested in this deal and I’m not. First, it’s not a done deal. Second, to purchase Hawthorne, the investor must assume 280E taxation risk. Third, the price seems high, as 13% of the company is worth about $75 million. Fourth, it’s not clear to me that marrying a hemp operator with a subsidiary makes sense as I recall TILT Holdings.
I have followed Hawthorne Gardening for a long time and am glad that CEO Hagedorn and his team have gone ahead and purchased it and expanded it. The hemp industry has been struggling for about five years, and the big drop in Hawthorne Gardening’s revenue is not SMG’s fault in my opinion. It’s not clear to me how Vireo Growth will make it a better action, but I hope it has a good plan.
I continue to believe that investors should pay close attention to what is happening with shares in Vireo. This potential acquisition was not something that was discussed by analysts or investors, but today’s volume of 277 thousand shares was very low. Once again, Vireo, thanks to its aggressive M&A activity, has become the 7th largest MSO in the NCV Revenue Tracker. It remains very troubling to me that stocks are not earning a lot of interest.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf
