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Curaleaf’s Debt Is Now a Short-Term Obligation – New Cannabis Ventures

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The Big MSO to Buy – New Cannabis Ventures

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.

Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.

Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.

Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.

I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.

Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf

We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.

Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.

As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

Alan:


New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks increase in December, but end 2025 and decrease again

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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American Cannabis Coverage by State

Cannabis Sales Failed to March – New Cannabis Ventures

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Cannabis Sales Failed to March – New Cannabis Ventures

New Cannabis Ventures offers readers this easy-to-read exclusive summary of BDSA’s 15-state monthly cannabis sales data.

Cannabis sales rose 6.5% sequentially in March. Adjusted for the higher number of days, sales were down 3.8% sequentially on a daily basis. In this review, we break down the results by state, starting with the western markets and then ending with the eastern markets. Overall, the BDSA estimates sales in 15 markets totaled $2.14 billion in March, up 1.6 percent from a year ago.

Western markets

BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. In March, annual growth was negative in four states. Growth in each of these states fell consecutively on a daily basis.

Eastern markets

BDSA provides coverage for Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In March, annual growth ranged from -6.8% in Florida to +32.7% in Ohio. Ohio began using adults in August, spurring growth. Note that Florida and Pennsylvania are medical markets only. On a daily basis, sequential growth declined in seven out of ten markets. Annual growth was negative in five markets and rose sharply in only two states. We warned of a potential slowdown in Florida despite strong dispensary and unit volume growth due to competitive pressure.

For readers interested in a deeper look hemp markets in these fifteen states and more, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and product details, longer history and segmentation by product attributes, learn how BDSA Solutions can give you access to actionable data and analytics.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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280E

The Cannabis Storm Will Hopefully Pass Over – New Cannabis Ventures

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The Cannabis Storm Will Hopefully Pass Over – New Cannabis Ventures

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Hemp stocks peaked in early 2021 after a rally in 2020, but have been on a downward trend since then. That 2020 rally was pretty big from the depths of the post-pandemic lows, but the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 5.2% that year overall. Since then, it has fallen from 44.39 on 12/31/20 to 5.26 currently, a decline of 88.2%. The index was at 100 as of 12/31/12 and has fallen over 94% since then. Only in 2026, the decline was 20.2% year-on-year. What a terrible storm this has been.

I wrote about 280E tax at the end of 2022, naming its potential elimination as one of them two great cannabis catalysts potentially, and another could be exiting the OTC for US hemp companies. Although none of these have happened, the 280E taxation could be abolished if the hemp reclassification takes place. The president issued a decree, but there is no timetable.

These stocks have risen over the past year, but they have fallen significantly since the 2024 election. Hemp stocks certainly look cheap by most standards, but for some, the risk remains that their balance sheets will be left in a very bad shape. A number of companies have already surrendered to debt holders, such as 4Front, Ayr Wellness, Cannabist, Gold Flora, MedMen, Schwazze and Tilt Holdings, but others will have to refinance their debt. I have called Curaleaf out on their massive debt and they have recently extended some of it, although the debt level remains quite high. There are other MSOs that are also facing challenges with their debt.

280E taxation remains a big issue for US hemp operators, but it’s not really a problem for Canadian LPs operating in Canada or around the world. Not only are they not subject to 280E taxation, they trade on NASDAQ and not OTC. However, these stocks are also in a bear market. My model portfolio of 420 Investor currently has 42.8% exposure to Canadian LPs and only 10.3% exposure to MSOs. The Global Hemp Stock Index, recently recalculated on 3/31, currently has 25.8% exposure to MSOs and 29.1% exposure to Canadian LPs.

What I like about Canadian LPs is that they have potential exposure in Europe and Australia, as Canada is a fairly mature market. Canada, which does not have a 280E tax, has a very high tax on cultivation. Maybe that will change. In any case, that market has started to consolidate, with acquisitions and license cuts. However, there are many outstanding licenses (1,002, including 110 pending removal due to suspension, cancellation or expiration). These stocks trade at or below tangible book value. Some of them are subject to 280E end of taxation through their investments.

Here’s the past half-year’s action in the seven Canadian LPs currently in the Global Hemp Stock Index:

All have fallen and two have lost more than half their value. During this period, MSOS is down 23.2%, and the Global Cannabis Stock Index is down 31.5%.

US hemp stocks have been linked to potential realignments and possible elimination of 280E taxation, but those may not happen. Cannabis-backed companies would benefit from helping their clients, but most Canadian LPs are not subject to the US. Hopefully this bear market will end soon. Happy Easter and Passover everyone!

Sincerely,

Alan:


This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.

Michigan Uniform Commercial Code (“UCC”) Article 9 Sale

On April 7, Monster Holdings Group’s equipment will be auctioned at the Jackson County Circuit Court in Jackson, Michigan at 9:00 a.m. ET. All applications must be submitted online. Learn more Article 9 of the sale of all assets of this mining company.

Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.


New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 3 weeks.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks were crushed in March

Capital increase

British American Tobacco to boost Charlotte’s Web stake

Jushi borrows to refinance debt at 12.5%

Financial statements

Tilray Q3 hemp revenue grew well

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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Advanced Flower Capital

Cannabis Stocks Were Crushed in March – New Cannabis Ventures

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Alan Brochstein, CFA

Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. Although the index rose in December, it fell on the year. In January, the indicator decreased by 14.4%, reaching 5.89. February saw a drop in prices, but the market recovered with the index ending the month at 5.86. March was very difficult, with the index falling 10.6% to 5.24.

After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 5 27 members in Q1, gained 53.0% in the third quarter, but fell 14.2% in the fourth quarter, down 4.2% for the full year. In 2026, it decreased by 20.5 percent.

Since its peak in February 2021, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 94.3% from a closing high of 92.48.

The 3 strongest names in March, each an MSO, were all up more than 13%;

  • summer (OTC: VRNO). +0.9%
  • Glass House (OTC: GLASF). +0.2%
  • Jazz Pharma (NASDAQ: JAZZ). -0.5%

These three stocks have been mixed year-to-date, with only JAZZ rallying so far. The other two have less decline than the index.

The 3 weakest names were all down more than 13% in March;

Akanda and iPower 2026 have both fallen significantly so far, while Turning Point Brands has fallen slightly worse than the benchmark.

The index has been recalculated as of the close of 31.03.31 and is based on 24.03. For the second quarter, the index will have 24 names, down from 27 names, with six removals and three additions. Out of the index are AKAN, GRWG, IPW, RYM, TSNDF and YCBD. Advanced Flower Capital ( AFCG ), Charlotte’s Web ( CWBHF ), and Chicago Atlantic BDC ( LIEN ) rejoin the index.

We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April 2025, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indices that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain, the US Hemp Operator Index, the Auxiliary Hemp Index, and the Canadian Hemp LP Index.

American Hemp Operator Index

The ACOI sank in January, falling 12.5% ​​to 11.53, and fell further in February, falling 5.8% to 10.87. In March, it decreased by 5.5%, reaching 10.27. In 2025, it increased by 57.7% to 13.18, and in 2026, it decreased by 22.1%. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) fell 8.5% in March and 24.8% in 2026.

The strongest stock in March was Verano, up 0.9%. The weakest, Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ), fell 12.4%.

In April, the index will have the same seven members.

Auxiliary cannabis index

Ancillary commodities lost 6.5% in March as the index fell to 9.20. The index decreased by 19.5% in 2025, reaching 11.09, and this year it decreased by 17.0%.

The strongest stock in March was (NASDAQ: AFCG ), which rose 23.7%. The weakest, Turning Point Brands, fell by 36.7%.

In March, the index will have eight members following the reorganization of Chicago Atlantic BDC.

Canadian Hemp LP Index

Canadian LPs fell 7.5% in March as the index fell to 51.49. In 2025, the index increased by 17.8%, reaching 59.01, and in 2026, it decreased by 12.7%.

Canada’s strongest LP in March was Decibel Cannabis (TSXV: DB ), up 28.6%. Simply Insoluble Concentrates (TSXV: HASH ) was the weakest, falling 57.7%.

In April, the index will have eleven members as MTL Cannabis has been acquired and Simply Solventless Concentrates is no longer eligible due to its price.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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