You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.
Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.
Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.
Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.
I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.
Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf
We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.
Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.
As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.
Happy New Year!
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
While the US is getting a lot of attention from cannabis investors, the industry faces many challenges in America. It’s been more than 12 years since Colorado shops opened their doors to adults beyond medical patients, and since then many states have embraced medical cannabis and adult cannabis. Although legal cannabis has expanded significantly, it remains a state-regulated market, and each state differs greatly in terms of rules and regulations. Cannabis remains illegal federally, and the industry continues to struggle 280E tax.
Cannabis markets outside the US continue to grow. Canada revised its federal medical cannabis program in 2013, with the MMPR replacing the MMAR, and the current Access to Cannabis for Public Purposes Regulations (ACMPR) replaced the MMPR in 2016. Justin Trudeau, who was elected Prime Minister in late 2015, became the first agenda item to legalize cannabis. implement adult use legalization in 2018. The program has its challenges, but the industry has grown as it has matured. StatsCan will release December sales data tomorrow, and it looks like cannabis sales are up about 4% for 2025.
Other countries have developed their own medical cannabis, including Australia, Germany and Israel, with Germany legalizing it for adult use. The Netherlands is holding trials in coffee shops. Uruguay, a small country, began legalizing cannabis sales to adults in 2017, and Germany began a program in 2024 to legalize cannabis for adults, although sales are through social clubs. While this program has not directly created commercial opportunities, it has boosted the market for medical cannabis. Unlike Canada, where cannabis is sold by the provinces, in Germany cannabis is sold in traditional pharmacies. A significant amount of medical cannabis sold in Germany is imported from Canada. David Brown of StratCann suggested this six months ago Almost 50% of German hemp imports in Q2 came from Canada.
The Global Hemp Stock Index, last recalculated at year-end, has 7 Canadian LPs, and these NASDAQ-listed companies tend to be active in international markets. Most MSOs in the US operate exclusively there, but one, Curaleaf, has international operations. Curaleaf trades on the TSX in Canada, but it trades in the US. The company reported total revenue of $320 million in its third quarter, with international operations (Canada, Germany, Portugal, Spain and the UK) accounting for just 14.4%. Year-to-date, it has registered just 12.9% as it has grown while domestic revenues have declined.
Canadian LPs in the index are Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, SNDL, Tilray Brands and Village Farms. SNDL, which is more of an alcohol than cannabis retailer, has no international cannabis sales. The remaining six are active and active. This week, Organigram announced the acquisition of the rest of the German cannabis company, and it was already active in other markets. Cronos Group has announced the acquisition of CanAdelaar, a deal that is expected to close soon and will give it access to the Netherlands. Canopy Growth is acquiring MTL Cannabis, and increased exports of medical cannabis was a benefit he pointed to.
In: warned about Canadian LPs here at the end of November and I am now more optimistic about this part of the cannabis market. At the time I had 5 of the 7 GCSI members on my Focus List at 420 Investor, but I added Aurora Cannabis when they reported their financial Q3 and fell. Here’s how all 7 have performed since the end of November.
My 420 Investor model portfolio includes a small position in Tilray Brands, a large position in Aurora Cannabis, and a very large position in Organigram. These three positions represent 31.9% of the portfolio, while the GCSI has 27.4% exposure.
The Canadian LP market has certainly been cheaper than it is now, but it seems cheap enough. Balance sheets have improved dramatically, and some of these large companies are trading below tangible book value. NASDAQ listings are superior to the OTC listings that MSOs have. The Canadian market may improve, although I don’t expect it to, and international expansion may continue to help federally legal Canadian LPs export more or expand to other countries. These international operations also involve risks. I see a big international opportunity for Canadian LPs, and investors don’t seem very excited at the moment.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 2 weeks.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Green Thumb Industries Announces Additional $50 Million in Senior Debt Financing
CHICAGO and VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Feb. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Green Thumb Industries Inc. (“Green Thumb” or the “Company”) (CSE: GTII) (OTCQX: GTBIF), a leading national cannabis consumer packaged goods company and owner of RISE Dispensaries, today announced that the Company has increased its existing syndicated loan facility, led by Valley National Bank 50 million dollars, bringing the total object to 189 million dollars. The Company intends to use the funds for general corporate purposes, potential strategic investments and other working capital requirements.
“Adding $50 million to our low-interest balance sheet should be good for our shareholders over the long term,” said Ben Kowler, founder, president and chief executive officer. “We are fortunate to have Valley National Bank as a financial partner who trusts our business model and capital management.”
The credit facility matures on September 11, 2029 and will continue to bear interest from the date of issue at the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) + 500 basis points. This transaction does not involve the issuance of Green Thumb shares to any of the banks participating in the syndication.
About Green Thumb Industries
Green Thumb Industries Inc. (“Green Thumb”) is a leading national cannabis consumer packaged goods company and retailer headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company manufactures and distributes a portfolio of licensed, branded cannabis products, including RYTHM, Dogwalkers, incredibles, Beboe, &Shine, Doctor Solomon’s and Good Green. Green Thumb also owns and operates RISE Dispensaries, a fast-growing national retail chain. Green Thumb serves millions of patients and customers each year with the goal of promoting wellness through the power of cannabis, while giving back to the communities it serves. Founded in 2014, Green Thumb has 20 manufacturing facilities and more than 100 retail stores in 14 US markets, employing approximately 5,000 people. More information is available at www.gtigrows.com.
New Cannabis Ventures’ NCV Newswire aims to gather high-quality content and information about leading cannabis companies to help our readers filter through the noise and stay on top of the most important cannabis business news. The NCV Newswire is edited by an editor and is not, however, automated. Got a secret news tip? Get in touch.
Michigan Cannabis sales in January have sharply decreased compared to a year ago, as they decreased by 15.9% consecutively. At $226.8 million, sales decreased by 8.3 percent compared to last year.
The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 43.4% year over year to $0.4 million, down 1.6% sequentially, and adult use sales down 8.2% year-over-year to $226.4 million, up 15.9% sequentially.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For adults
Medical
As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. The average price of $945 per pound in January is up 1.5% sequentially from a record low and down 11.2% from a year ago.
Michigan hemp sales are expected to grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. billion The program should continue to expand going forward as supply becomes more affordable and distribution expands.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf
