You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

In May 2024 warned readers about Florida hemp field. There have been many follow-ups, the latest of which was in early January, and it pointed to the fact that Florida’s medical cannabis market is shrinking. Two months later, things look bleak there as the mature market becomes more competitive.

Each month we share BDSA data and Florida is one of the markets where they provide monthly sales estimates. Florida does a fantastic job of sharing weekly data on unit volumes, but it doesn’t provide revenue data.

The BDSA estimates Florida hemp sales totaled $126.1 million in February, down 0.4% from a year ago. January sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier, and 2025 sales are expected to rise just 2.9% after rising 20.9% in 2024.

Florida provides a wealth of data that allows for a good understanding of state trends. First, they provide the number of patients, which, according to 2/27 report was 933 thousand. Growth has slowed down.

During the last year, the growth was 3.4%, and in the last three months it increased by only 0.4%. Patient growth is projected to be 3.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2024, following an 11% increase in 2023. The medical cannabis industry is maturing in the state, and the current number of patients is almost 4% of the total population.

Florida shares the total number of stores (742 currently), which is up 4.7% year-over-year. Ahead of the election in 2024, which could legalize cannabis for adult use, there was a big increase, with the number of shops increasing by 14%. The growth of stores has led to more competition.

The state splits the volumes, and the two largest parts are “medical marijuana” in mg for THC products and “marijuana for smoking” in ounces. Sales of medical cannabis products rose 12.6% last week, while smoking cannabis grew 11.4%. This growth was much higher than the revenue growth projected by the BDSA, suggesting that pricing is under pressure.

Florida also breaks down unit sales by licensed operator and shares how many distribution locations each operates. This data shows how concentrated the state is, as 51.2% of the state’s vertically integrated dispensaries are owned by just four companies, including Trulieve, Verano (MÜV), Curaleaf, and Ayr Wellness (which bought Liberty Health). These four companies sold 56% of medical cannabis and 61% of smokable cannabis last week. Interestingly, Trulieve, which has nearly twice as many stores as runner-up Verano, saw its medical cannabis volumes decline from a year ago.

When voters failed to approve adult-use cannabis in 2024, falling short of the required 60% affirmative vote, these major Florida operators saw their stocks decimated. It’s been the hardest for Ayr Wellness, but they’ve all come down a lot.

It’s not yet known if Florida voters will vote again this year, but things could improve if adult legalization is implemented. Also, the federal ban on THC from hemp could increase demand later this year when it is implemented. With that said, Florida’s medical cannabis market appears to be struggling. Trulieve is very large in the state and has significant influence with it compared to other states. Analysts forecast Trulieve’s 2026 revenue to decline 1% after falling less than 1% in 2025. More importantly, they forecast adjusted EBITDA to decline 6% in 2026.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 2 weeks.

Exclusives

Cannabis sales remained weak in February

Hemp stocks are stable

Financial statements

Cresco Labs saw revenue shrink again

Curaleaf’s Q4 revenue rose 2%

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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El