You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
I’m a big fan of Green Thumb Industries and I like its president and CEO, Ben Kovler. I also like its president, Anthony Georgiadis. After the close on Monday, the world learned of their big stock sell-off that took place last Friday. Kovler sold 162,500 shares $6.50 average price and Georgiadis sold 125,000 shares also for $6.50. The total raised for the two was $1.87 million, and it did so at a lower price than when GTBIF closed on 8/8 ($7.13), the day before and other cannabis stocks rose on renewed potential realignment. It was also 20.4% lower where GTI closed on the last day of 2024.
The company has not made any disclosures other than filing Form 4. So the public and GTI investors have to try to figure this out. why did two executives offload so much stock? First, the good news. both still hold a lot of influence, with CEO Kovler owning more than 692,000 shares directly and another 158,000 shares indirectly. He also owns 57,000 Super Voting shares directly and 86,000 indirectly. 143,000 Super Voting Shares convert into 14.3 million Subordinate Voting Shares. President Georgiadis owns 760,000 subordinate voting shares directly and another 20,000 indirectly. He also owns more than 37K Super Voting shares directly and another 3K indirectly.
While it’s not clear why the CEO and chairman sold so much stock, they still have significant cash and remain in line with shareholders. I think it’s interesting to see what Ben Kovler bought, and that’s shares in another company he runs, RYTHM, Inc. His position is still smaller than the investment in GTI, but it is large. On September 25, he purchased 1,000 shares in the open market at $37.08. On September 19, he paid $39.99 for 1,000 shares. In November 2024, he bought 5,000 shares at $45.89. RYM closed yesterday at $23.83.
It is also interesting to contrast these sales with the purchases that GTI has made in its stock. In 2023, the company introduced a buyback plan and paid $9.96 for 2.5 million shares in September and then $11.14 for 1.34 million in December. In 2024, it bought 3.97 million shares at an average price of $10.85. Even this year, the company continued to buy back shares, paying just $4.34 for 5.72 million shares. In the 3rd quarter, the company did not make purchases, because these purchases were mostly in June. So sales are well below where the company bought GTBIF shares last year and the year before, but well above where they bought in June (5.46 million shares at $4.26).
It would be premature to conclude that Kovler and Georgiadis don’t like GTBIF because they still have a lot of exposure to the stock. Another large holder is AdvisorShares, which controls 23.22 million shares of MSOS as of 11/12.
MSOS has more exposure to other ETFs, and the sum of the three seems insane to me at 67.5%. Although it is quite large at 20%, GTBIF’s exposure is down from 36.4% at the end of the year. Stock exposure rose 5.3%, but MSOS saw its shares expand 44.4%. Kovler and the ETF are struggling on social media, but MSOS still owns a lot, with 11% of the subordinated voting shares and 9.3% of the shares on a fully diluted cash basis (which converts to other types of shares and includes RSUs and cash options).
Investors may be concerned about this large stake sale by two Green Thumb Industries executives, but I think the stock is relatively attractive to its peers and is heavily positioned in my model portfolio, the 420 Investor (9.4% compared to its 3.1% weighting in the Global Hemp Stock Index). MSOs currently make up 26.4% of the index, and my MSO exposure is 23.7%, slightly underweight. Here’s how MSOS and its top 6 holdings performed in 2025.
GTBIF is the only stock to decline this year and is down 38% since the end of 2023, just short of MSOS’s 38.4% decline. Looking at valuations, the stock looks very cheap at an enterprise value of just 5.4X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA. Most importantly, from my perspective, its balance sheet stands out compared to its peers with very low net debt. More importantly, it has positive tangible book value, which is quite large, while all of its peers have negative tangible equity. If the 280E ends up being scrapped, that would be good for the GTI. Of course, it will be more useful to his peers. The downside risk for GTI appears to be much lower than for other major MSOs.
Some readers may be wondering why Ben Kovler and Anthony Georgiadis are selling GTBIF, and so am I. I think a better question might be: Why is Ben Kovler so excited about RYTHM? The stock has been crushed by the federal government’s recent move to criminalize THC from hemp, which may play out in a year, but it’s not a big deal in my opinion. RYM’s valuation is very high when considering the fully diluted share count. The stock is now down slightly more year-to-date than GTBIF, down 17.8% year-to-date. In November, it decreased by 47.8%. I think RYTHM stock, which is in the Global Hemp Stock Index, remains expensive and risky.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
With the first month of the year almost half over, the Global Hemp Stock Index rose 0.3% to 6.61. While that’s better than cash, it lags the S&P 500, which gained 1.2%, and notably the Russell 2000, which gained 6.9%.
The global hemp stock index has been in decline over the past five years, falling 4.2% in 2025, its best annual performance since a recent surge in 2020. The hemp industry is so down and should be rallying, but most bets on that outcome have lost money.
The index was recalculated at year-end, with three stocks exiting and two entering, leaving the index with 27 stocks. So far in 2026, 17 are up, with double-digit percentage gains, and 10 are down, including three that are down more than 20%. Here is a table that includes all the companies and some additional information:
The average market cap is $1.1 billion. MSOS is up 4.7% year-to-date, and the index contains 7 MSOs, all of which have gained. The last column shows that five of these seven have negative tangible book value, suggesting potential downside risk for those with significant debt.
I keep a close eye on 16 of the 27 names. Canopy Growth, Cresco Labs, Cronos Group, Curaleaf, GrowGeneration, Green Thumb Industries, Innovative Industrial Properties, WM Technology, Organigram, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Scotts Miracle-TilrayrA BTrumsndce, Villa Verano. I’ve covered most of the others and written about RYTHM and SNDL on Seeking Alpha.
The drops include two recent additions that got me thinking more about inclusion rules. These two as well as others have very low market caps. They all met the minimum price rule and minimum average daily trading value criteria, and they are in the cannabis sector. The next rebalance, which will take place in March, may include some new rules.
The overall stock market is on the rise, but hemp stocks are still not catching the attention of investors. Shares in the index, up just 0.3% year to date, are trading near their 50-day and 150-day moving averages. MSOs are helping the market so far, while several stocks are hurting it. My model portfolio in the 420 Investor, which did very well in 2025, is outperforming the index so far in 2026. I’m very underweight MSOs relative to the index, own two, slightly overweight Canadian LPs (three names) and have a large overweight in ancillaries (four names). The model portfolio had 19% cash on 1/14.
The cannabis industry suffers from slow growth, increased competition, a slowdown in adult-use states, an uncertain regulatory environment at the federal level, and many unfair taxes (280E) Hopefully things will improve in 2026.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Michigan hemp sales for the month of December increased from a year ago as they rose 3.8% sequentially, which was +0.5% on a daily basis. At $269.7 million, sales increased by 1.6 percent compared to last year.
The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 50.2% year-over-year to $0.4 million, up 10.8% sequentially, and adult-use sales up 1.7% year-over-year to $269.3 million, up 3.8% sequentially.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For adultsMedical
As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. The average price of $932 a pound in December fell 2.6 percent sequentially to a new record low and fell 15.9 percent from a year earlier.
Michigan hemp sales are expected to grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. forward as supply becomes more accessible and distribution expands.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
The hemp industry ended 2025 with a slight decline. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which started at 100 at the end of 2012, has fallen 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th consecutive annual decline.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS ) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it’s down a lot since late 2020 when it was at $36.50. The 5-year yield at $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 85.2 percent, just shy of a recession.
So far in 2026, the global hemp stock index is unchanged. MSOS, which rose in December, fell 3.0% to $4.58. After last year’s big jump, investors probably aren’t too worried just yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t have, because the realignment is still in progress, and if it passes, it’s very incremental because of the elimination 280E tax. Of course, it remains to be seen whether a realignment will actually happen, and if so, when it will happen.
Investors or traders have rushed to MSOS over the past few years in hopes of a reshuffle. The lift in late December had massive volume, surpassing the volume in August when rumors of a possible realignment under Trump first surfaced. It was also heavier than when the MSOS fell after the last election in 2024. So far in 2026, volume has been fairly low, as seen in this six-month chart:
MSOS is still trading above the 12/11 price, as are most of its stocks. It’s also trading up more than 100% from near its all-time low of $2 set last year. To me, while the stock has fallen well from its recent peak, down 36.8% from its 12/18 intraday high, it looks like it could continue to decline. The recent downturn has not spurred buyers. In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I have very little exposure to MSOs compared to the Global Hemp Stock Index, just 6.6% in both MSOs compared to 25.9%.
The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I’ve discussed before: Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) at 67.7% MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a major debt challengeso far in 2026, it has fallen by 1.4% and moved from the second largest position to the third. Trulieve, the current largest holding, fell 5.6%, while GTI, now the second largest, rose 2.0%. MSOS has not purchased or sold shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.
I have watched MSOS since its day 1 which was in late 2020. Although I was and continue to be highly critical of the way it was run, I commended them for their early efforts. Unfortunately, there are no cannabis investment funds, including ETFs, that come close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share count dramatically over the past year, despite a recent small drawdown. Investors should understand that if it hits redemptions, it could put pressure on the MSO subsector and the price of MSOS.
It is very possible that hemp will be reclassified with the end of 280E taxation. It is also possible that large MSOs will not have to pay past 280E taxes that they did not pay. If 280E goes away and the previous liabilities go away, it will be very positive for MSOs and it will likely eliminate potential MSOS repayments. Of course, if 280E holds, traders stacked in MSOS will have trouble finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of the 280E.
I continue to recommend that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times, as well as recently, that hemp REITs make more senseand I have a lot of exposure to both of them in my modeling portfolio. There are other supporting names that should have upside if the 280E goes away for their customers, but less downside if it stays. Canadian LPs might also make sense. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to suggest that it will.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
