You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Canadian LP stocks have been quite strong this year. I’ll provide an update on the November action on Friday, but the NCV Canadian Cannabis LP Index ended today at 59.32, leaving the 13-stock index up 18.4% in 2025. Some readers may attribute the demonstration to Village Farms, but Village Farms is not on the NDAASQ index for that reason alone. Village Farms is on the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, which is down 11.1% year-to-date. It is also in MSOS, which is down 10.0% so far in 2025.
I’ve written very optimistically about some of the Canadian LPs over the past few years, and very negatively about others. Newsletter articles on Canadian LPs over the past eighteen months include:
It’s been a little over three months since Canadian LPs have been the focus of this newsletter, and I want to provide an update today as we head into the end of the year, with these stocks outperforming the hemp sector. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs in my 19-stock Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands, and Village Farms. These are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, along with Aurora Cannabis and SNDL. Here’s how they’ve performed since 8/8, the day before news of a possible US move broke:
Here are my current thoughts on each.
Canopy growth. it was unpleasant, but all that dilution fixed their balance sheet. I don’t see the stock, which is down 56.0% in 2025, as attractive, and I remain concerned about their US operations being held as an investment rather than as part of their operations (to maintain a NASDAQ listing).
Cronos Group. I’m not much of a fan of it, other than the huge cash and such a large majority ownership by Altria. That said, it makes up 6.7% of my model portfolio at 420 Investor, despite being the strongest LP of the five, up 23.0% year-to-date.
Organigram. I like the balance and the valuation seems about right. What matters is that their actions were strong. This week, the company announced a new CEO, who will take over in mid-January. I don’t know much about him, but he spent two decades at British American Tobacco, which owns a lot of OGI. The stock has pulled back a lot and is down 0.6% in 2025. I include it in my model portfolio at 11.9%.
Tilray Brands. I am not a fan of this company at all and they have zero involvement in the US state regulated cannabis market. I thought they were bullshitting the MedMen and I’m glad their investment was completely written off. The latest ban on hemp products, which will take effect next year, undermines the efforts they’ve been making with THC drinks. I really liked it when it was under $1 earlier this year, as I expressed here, but now I don’t care. The stock will reverse split after the close on Monday. I don’t have a problem with this at all, but many investors don’t like reverse splits. TLRY closed at $1.03 but announced a reverse split after the close. Compared to last year, it decreased by 21.8%.
Village farmers. I loved it earlier this year, and I loved it when they made their big move in May to divest themselves of their produce business. The stock is very much up (418.2% year-to-date in my opinion) and not widely followed by Wall Street. The company didn’t provide any guidance, but analysts’ estimates look really high. I think many are excited about their potential win in the Texas medical cannabis market, which is in the process of expanding from 3 licensed producers to 15, with news from VFF on 12/1. This Texas is excited about program changes and producer expansion, but I’m still not excited about the potential financial impact that could eat into cash and not be recognized on the income statement. Note that MSOS has acquired a position (in the summer ahead of news of a possible realignment). The ETF currently has 3.5 million shares, a position of 2.2 percent of the ETF, although it sold 2 percent of its holdings when it hit redemption last week.
I write a lot about Canadian LPs on Seeking Alpha, and you always can look at my articles more details there. This past weekend I upgraded my rating on Organigram from Hold to Buy and downgraded my rating on Village Farms from Sell to Strong Sell. Last week I upgraded Canopy Growth from Strong Sell to Hold after being very negative for quite some time. In late September, I downgraded Tilray Brands to Strong Sell. That one rallied sharply a few days later on their Q1 report, but failed. In mid-September, I initiated coverage of SNDL via selling. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs in my Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands, and Village Farms.
Canadian LPs are doing better than most other sectors. I’ve written positively about hemp REITs, and they seem like a better bet to me. I think investors should be careful with Canadian LPs as they are no longer as cheap as they used to be and have been buoyed by enthusiasm for MSOs since the potential realignment was announced in August, although the realignment will not affect them. I hope there are improvements in Canadian taxation, distribution and regulation, as these changes can help LPs. Until then, I suggest caution.
I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
About three months ago, this newsletter talked about cannabis stock traders care a lot about MSOs again, but that they weren’t paying attention to an older MSO that was in the process of getting much bigger, Vireo Growth. As I mentioned at the time, despite its very large size, Vireo Growth failed to join the Global Cannabis Stock Index due to its low trading volume. Yesterday I went through the quarterly rebalancing process for the upcoming new quarter, which starts seven days from the close of trade, and Vireo still doesn’t qualify. The price then topped the low of $0.50 at $0.5682, but the stock has traded an average of just 221,000 shares per day over the past month. The dollar volume is about $100,000, which is well below the required minimum.
I shared that there weren’t many analysts following Vireo three months ago, and that remains the case. The Vireo Growth website has no analysts listed on it analyst coverage pageSeeking Alpha shares analyst estimates, noting that there is one analyst. I use a system, Koyfin, and it has the same ratings. As I mentioned, Zuanic & Associates does cover the stock, but I don’t think its ratings are included in the consensus. It expects Vireo’s revenue to grow to $436 million in 2026 from $259.9 million in 2025, according to a report in mid-November.
Since then, the company has announced two pending transactions and purchased a large number of senior convertible debt Schwazze at a discounted price. This month, the company said it was buying some assets PharmaCann: in Colorado and that it goes to Eaze to enter California and Florida. Vireo is very active in consolidating the cannabis industry. A year ago, the company was located in Minnesota, which was used for adults, and Maryland, and it had a failed business in New York. Its Q3 report reflected acquisitions in Missouri, Nevada and Utah. Total revenue of $91.7 million includes $12.0 million in Minnesota, $10.4 million in Maryland, $6.1 million in New York (mostly wholesale) and $63.2 million from new states. The Vireo is up NCV revenue ratingReaching #7 among MSOs with positive operating income in the third quarter;
While Vireo Growth is No. 7 among MSOs by revenue, it is No. 11 in the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ), which has a holding of just 0.6% of the fund. The 9.51 million shares controlled by MSOS are down from last week as the ETF faced some redemptions, but it’s still well up from 6.9 million shares at midyear and 6.7 million at the end of 2024. At the end of June, the share was 1.0% of the ETF, so it’s down. The top three positions represent an average of 22.4% MSOS each, which is 36X greater than the VREOF position. This is not at all consistent with its market share or market cap.
Vireo Growth made a very large capital raise in late 2024, selling $81 million a share at $0.625, and it recently traded below that level and closed there today. It issued a lot of shares to cover its acquisitions. In fact, the company reports more than 1 billion shares outstanding. The stock ended 2024 at $0.56, so it’s up 11.6% this year. This compares with the Global Hemp Stock Index at 6.92, up 0.6%, and MSOS returning 24.7%.
I think cannabis investors should keep a close eye on Vireo stock for a sign of the health of the overall cannabis sector. At 420 Investor, I include 19 hemp stocks in my Focus List, and this group does not include Vireo Growth. I keep an eye on it though because it is part of a group of 7 stocks that I have on my stock watchlist to potentially add to the Focus List. While it is not in the index, the other six are or will be in a week.
I wish the best for Vireo Growth and a Merry Christmas to all New Cannabis Ventures readers.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Statistics Canada released October retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales decline from September levels, down 4.7% to C$451.7 million. This sequential decline was further reduced on a daily basis due to the higher number of days compared to the previous month. September, originally reported at C$475.0 million, was revised slightly lower to C$473.9 million. October sales fell 0.9% year-over-year, down from 8.3% in May, 7.5% in June and 6.2% in September. This was also below the 20.3% growth rate in August 2023 and equal to the previous lowest annual growth rate since the start of legalization, which was -0.9% in September 2024, and it was significantly down from the 9.1% growth in December. August’s record level was only 1.8% higher than last year’s index. Total sales are expected to grow 4.5% to C$5.39 billion in 2024 and 4.3% year-to-date in 2025.
An increase in the number of shops, as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market, have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales rose 0.1% from September and 3% from a year ago. Alberta grew 5.5% from September and 4% from a year ago. British Columbia was down 55.0% from September, as it was down 54% from a year ago, while Quebec was up 8.8% from September and 31% from a year ago.
November sales data will be released on January 23.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
The big news this week was an extension of the huge news from August, when President Trump appears to be now preparing to issue an executive order to push cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. Unsurprisingly, hemp stocks have rallied, with the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index now at 8.23, up 35.4% in December and now up 19.6% year-to-date. MSOs to benefit from 280E tax If this continues, MSOS will rise even further to 6.69, up 92.2% in December and 75.6% year-to-date. The ETF, which closed at $6.87 on Election Day 2024, fell to $2.02 in March.
In August, when the news broke, I issued a newsletter pitching to investors consider hemp REITs. After initially moving higher, they have since fallen behind;
Since 8/13, MSOS has advanced 28.4% and the Global Cannabis Stock Index is up 15.9%. Only one of the four hemp REITs rallied, Innovative Industrial Properties, and it was up just 6.9%. A very weak one is Advanced Flower Group, which is in the process of becoming a business development company
I continue to believe that eliminating 280E taxes will be good for hemp REITs, which include two equity REITs and two mortgage REITs. I have two of them, IIPR and REFI, in my Focus List at 420 Investor and my model portfolio holds both right now. I’m overweight the utilities index and underweight all other subsectors, including MSOs and Canadian LPs;
The two REITs I include in my Focus List make up 27.8% of the model portfolio and increase my ancillary exposure. All four REITs are in the Global Hemp Stock Index and make up 13.6% of the index, so I am currently very overweight. IIPR, which trades on the NYSE, trades at 0.7X tangible book value. REFI, which trades on the NASDAQ, trades at 0.9X. Both stocks pay very high dividends that may be at risk. So far in 2025, both stocks are down more than 12%, and two other hemp REITs are down more. Even if dividends are included, all are down year-over-year;
The two REITs I follow closely serve MSOs: IIPR owns and leases properties, and REFI owns mortgages that MSOs take out against their properties. The poor financial health of their clients weighed on both stocks. If 280E goes away, the client will be healthier. Certainly there will be challenges if 280E remains, but it could be much worse for MSOs saddled with debt and unpaid taxes. The reprogramming will not automatically result in NASDAQ admitting MSOs for trading, nor will it necessarily result in SECURITY banking, an action that could increase competition for REITs. Hemp REITs, which are still down year-over-year and down for much longer periods, look attractive to me for hemp investors here.
This fight to stop 280E taxation was bitter. Let’s hope it ends.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
