Idaho could see more than $100 million in medical marijuana sales and up to $28 million in new revenue for state coffers under a legalization measure activists are working to put on the November ballot, according to a new economic analysis released by the campaign.

The Natural Medicine Alliance of Idaho (NMAI) announced this last week collected enough signatures for an initiative to legalize medical cannabis To pass the statewide threshold for ballot qualification, it commissioned the firm Younger Associates to do two fiscal projections of the proposal, using Utah’s medical marijuana program as a model.

“Based on Utah’s participation trajectory, Idaho supports approximately 63,000 active patients and $108.5 million in annual retail sales by Year 6,” the analysis states.

Under the first revenue scenario, a 6 percent state sales tax would be applied to marijuana sales and there would also be a $100 annual patient registration fee, which would generate about $6.5 million in sales tax revenue and $6.3 million by the program’s sixth year.

The second revenue scenario includes the same patient registration cost and sales tax, but also adds an additional 14 percent fee collected at the point of sale. It would generate about $21.7 million a year in tax and fee revenue, in addition to about $6.3 million in annual patient card fees, to bring in $28 million a year from the state.

“Actual revenue will ultimately depend on the final program design and implementation decisions made by the State.” the report he says

In addition to the economic analysis, the NMAI also released a new short video this month saying the measure proposes “strictly regulated market access” for cannabis and treats patients “with dignity rather than fear or stigma.”

The video also features medical marijuana as an “alternative to the devastating effects of opioids” and the initiative “supports local jobs, Idaho agriculture and generates tax revenue while maintaining strong enforcement standards to prevent misuse.”

“This is not about recreation, it’s about care,” he said he says. “The law provides medical freedom to patients to consult with their physician about their health conditions and assert their right to make choices about their own care.”

But since it’s unclear how many signatures the campaign has collected so far and whether activists have met another requirement for petitions to be distributed regionally, NMAI continues to hold signature-gathering events across the state to expand its coalition of supporters ahead of the May 1 submission deadline.

Amanda Watson, communications manager for NMAI, told Marijuana Moment on Wednesday that organizers “feel very confident that we will qualify for the ballot in November.”

As of this week, NMAI has collected more than 73,000 total signatures — surpassing the statewide requirement of 70,725 for valid petitions — according to the campaign’s website.

To be certified on the ballot, the group must also submit the signatures of at least 6 percent of registered voters in at least 18 of the state’s 35 legislatures. Marihuana Moment reached out to NMAI for a status update on progress toward that goal, but a representative was not immediately available.

Meanwhile, groups of paid and volunteer applicants they are expanding across the state to high-traffic areas to collect signatures, and the NMAI website has a map showing where registered voters can go to sign.

The Idaho Medical Cannabis Act, introduced by NMAI last October, would provide patients with access to marijuana from a limited number of dispensaries and provide a regulatory framework for the market.

Here are the main provisions Idaho Medical Cannabis Law:

• Healthcare practitioners may recommend medical cannabis to patients with conditions including cancer, anxiety and acute pain.
• Medical marijuana patients or designated caregivers can purchase up to 113 grams of cannabis for smoking or 20 grams of THC extract for vaporization per month.
• The state would issue three vertically-integrated cannabis business licenses, and then potentially six licenses in total.
• Marijuana would be reclassified under state law, Title II.
• State and local law enforcement would be prohibited from assisting in drug enforcement activities related to the state’s illegal cannabis program.
• There would be anti-discrimination protections for those who use or sell marijuana in compliance with state laws, preventing adverse actions by employers, landlords and educational institutions.
• There does not seem to be any equity-based reform, nor will the initiative be given the opportunity to grow at home.

“We believe Idahoans deserve access to legal, compassionate and natural care right at home,” NMAI’s website states. “Our mission is to provide patients with a legal path to natural medicine to relieve suffering and restore dignity without the fear of addiction.”

“The Idaho Medical Cannabis Act is our first step. It creates a safe and strictly regulated medical program that allows qualified Idahoans to seek medical treatment for cannabis with a valid diagnosis from a health care provider.” he says. “It supports Idaho agriculture, generates tax revenue to reinvest locally and ensures patients can find natural relief.”

Last month, the campaign also released the results of a statewide poll shows that 83 percent of likely voters support the legalization of medical cannabisincluding 74% of Republicans, 95% of Democrats and 92% of independents.

When asked how they would vote if the current legalization of cannabis appears on the November ballot, 76% of respondents said “yes”. Of that cohort, 50 percent said they would “definitely” vote yes, while only 21 percent said they would vote “no.”

After introducing the medical cannabis initiative last year, a separate 2024 campaign, Kind Idaho, told supporters it would cancel its signature drive. ballot initiative to legalize the personal possession and cultivation of marijuana the adults

Pleasant Idaho previously put medical marijuana ballot measures before voters Both in the 2022 and 2024 elections, but the efforts were unsuccessful.

Meanwhile, this year voters will see a different type of proposal on the ballot: the constitutional amendment approved by the legislature to make it so. only members of the legislature can legalize marijuana or other controlled substances.

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Lawmakers held a separate hearing last March to discuss it bill to legalize medical cannabisbut in the following months there has been no significant action on the matter.

Separately, it would be a bill from last year by Rep. Bruce Skaug (R). set a mandatory minimum fine of $420 for possession of cannabisremoving judges’ discretion to apply lower sentences. Skaug said the bill, which ultimately stalled in committee, would send a message that Idaho is tough on marijuana.

Members of the House of Representatives were also admitted bill to ban marijuana adsalthough the Senate later defeated the measure.

user photo Max Pixel.

Whitney Economics (WE), a global leader in cannabis and hemp business consulting, data and economic research, today announced the release of its US cannabis revenue forecast for the period 2025 – 2030.

“We forecast legal revenue to reach $30.5 billion by 2026, a 4.9% increase from 2025,” said WE Founder and Chief Economist Beau Whitney. “This is a welcome change from just one year ago, when the US legal cannabis market experienced its first year-over-year revenue decline in the history of the legalized market.”

That decline, Whitney said, would have been worse nationally had it not been for strong growth in New York and Ohio, where consumers gained greater retail access to cannabis products. Although unit volumes and legal share rates remained strong, supply saturation resulted in price compression and reduced overall revenue in the U.S. “Growth rates are still positive, not as much as in previous years, when we forecast 13.4% growth by 2026,” he said.

In addition, price deflation has again reduced near- and medium-term sales expectations, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 down from last year. “Whitney Economics’ forecast accuracy has always been in the mid-to-high 90% range, so when it dropped to 85% in 2025, we knew we had to update our models,” Whitney said. “Accounting for price compression was a major part of this adjustment.”

In the past, the key driver for predicting cannabis retail revenue was spending multiplied by the number of consumers. However, with price compression becoming a major factor in the US cannabis market, forecasts must account for market deflation, and WE has updated its model to include price declines.

Whitney’s prediction is that cannabis consumer behavior has changed significantly since the end of the Covid-19 era, with consumers spending essentially the same amount each month. Cannabis spending patterns underwent a major shift in 2023 and 2024, with cannabis spending now beginning to reflect broader consumption patterns.

“In times of uncertainty and higher inflation, consumers are no longer adding to their carts; instead, they are buying only what they need and saving on other cannabis-related purchases,” Whitney said. “As a result of this change, for the first time, price compression has become a major variable in the cannabis forecast equation.”

Since 2014, when Washington and Colorado states rolled out the first state-based adult cannabis regulation programs, the growth of individual markets, fueled by an influx of legal consumers, has overshadowed any price compression taking place. Market growth outpaced the impact of price declines. However, as markets began to mature and the pace of consumer conversion to the legal market slowed, price compression had a greater impact on market growth.

“We’re approaching the point where the growth rates of legal share are slowing while price declines have accelerated,” Whitney said. “Consequently, price compression will play an important role in advancing market value. This is a sign of market maturity.”

With the level of price compression and its suppressive effect on market growth, states must factor this into their tax revenue projections, which are expected to decline. States can no longer expect to raise taxes to make up for lost revenue because those increases will reduce demand, just like in any other industry, Whitney said.

Despite the importance of price compression, US cannabis revenue projections still point to growth for the remainder of the decade. But given the falling prices, legislators and regulators will be forced to encourage consumers to participate in the legal market; otherwise, retail and tax revenues will continue to decline.

“Perhaps this will lead to a move away from the marijuana dispensary model and opening up sales through other distribution channels, such as grocery stores and big box retailers,” Whitney said. “The US market is at a crossroads where the market is normalizing and no longer experiencing exponential growth. Single-digit growth will become the norm moving forward.”

A Delaware House committee has unanimously approved the Senate-passed bill allowing terminally ill patients to use medical cannabis in hospitals.

About two weeks after Sen. Marie Pinkney’s (D) legislation advanced in the Senate, members of the House Health and Human Development Committee cleared it on a 9-0 vote Wednesday.

There was limited public testimony on the measure, which is being held in the House by Rep. Kamela Smith (D). A representative of the Delaware Healthcare Association supported the bill’s intent, while specifically applauding the Senate’s revisions to address the “operational and compliance challenges” raised by its members.

In his opening statement, Smith said the measure “balances patient rights and clinical judgment, allowing physicians to make decisions on a case-by-case basis, while protecting patients and facilities that comply with the law from civil liability and professional liability.”

He also shared a personal story that informed his advocacy for reform, describing how his father had experienced “constant pain from having cancer” and the only thing that bought him relief was cannabis.

“Doctors acknowledging that he was in pain and giving him time to relieve that pain” is part of the reason lawmakers support the legislation. he said.

Under SB 226, patients and their caregivers would be responsible for obtaining and administering medical marijuana, and would have to store it securely in a locked container at all times.

Smoking or vaporizing medical cannabis would be prohibited, so patients would have to consume it through other methods.

Health care facility officials should see a copy of patients’ state medical marijuana registry IDs, and should note the use of the drug in medical records. Likewise, “written policies and procedures for the use of medical marijuana in health care facilities should be developed and disseminated.”

Facilities would be able to prohibit the use of medical marijuana if such use “would have an adverse effect on patient care and treatment or is otherwise contraindicated.”

They could also revoke a license to use cannabis if a federal agency such as the U.S. Department of Justice or the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services takes an enforcement action against that use or “issues a rule, guidance or otherwise provides notice to health care facilities that expressly prohibits the use of medical marijuana in health care facilities.”

The right to use medical cannabis according to the bill, SB 226it would not apply to patients in the emergency department.

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It’s Marijuana Time tracking hundreds of cannabis, psychedelic and drug policy bills in state legislatures and Congress this year. Patreon supporters by pledging at least $25/month, you’ll get access to our interactive maps, charts, and audio calendars so you never miss a development.

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Meanwhile, in Delaware, the Senate voted in January on a bill that would override the governor’s veto. prevent local governments from imposing harsh zoning restrictions that make it harder for marijuana businesses to operate to act in their jurisdictions.

Delaware’s adult cannabis market launched last August, with the governor Claiming a “successful” first weekend of adult cannabis sales in the statemedical and recreational marijuana purchases totaling nearly $1 billion, and compliance checks that demonstrate the regulated market is operating as the law intends.

Delaware’s legal market was launched two years after the legalization of marijuana Under former Gov. John Carney (D).

Before expanding sales, the governor toured one of the state’s cannabis cultivation facilities last July, praising the quality of the marijuana being produced. He said it will be “the French wine of the bush.”

The launch of the legal market came with some controversy, however. critics say it’s unfair for medical operators to begin adult-use sales ahead of other license applicants. Dozens of other retailers that have already received licenses or may be dozens more still awaiting issuance will have to wait for more regulatory approval before opening their doors, a situation that has frustrated some advocates.

The two lawmakers who led the push to legalize marijuana asked for input from consumers and businesses on the launch of the market. Sen. Trey Paradee (D), sponsor of SB 75, and House Majority Whip Rep. Ed Osienski (D) — the lead sponsor of the state’s 2023 legislative bills.Last year it launched an online form for residents to anonymously share their thoughts and opinions about the cannabis program.

Separately, a Delaware House committee in January approved the bill to decriminalize the public consumption of marijuana.

While some legal marijuana states like Colorado and Ohio still impose criminal penalties for public use of cannabis, Delaware stands out as particularly punitive, with a maximum penalty that carries the risk of jail time in addition to a fine.

user photo Brian Shamblen.