You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Canadian LP stocks have been quite strong this year. I’ll provide an update on the November action on Friday, but the NCV Canadian Cannabis LP Index ended today at 59.32, leaving the 13-stock index up 18.4% in 2025. Some readers may attribute the demonstration to Village Farms, but Village Farms is not on the NDAASQ index for that reason alone. Village Farms is on the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, which is down 11.1% year-to-date. It is also in MSOS, which is down 10.0% so far in 2025.
I’ve written very optimistically about some of the Canadian LPs over the past few years, and very negatively about others. Newsletter articles on Canadian LPs over the past eighteen months include:
It’s been a little over three months since Canadian LPs have been the focus of this newsletter, and I want to provide an update today as we head into the end of the year, with these stocks outperforming the hemp sector. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs in my 19-stock Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands, and Village Farms. These are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, along with Aurora Cannabis and SNDL. Here’s how they’ve performed since 8/8, the day before news of a possible US move broke:
Here are my current thoughts on each.
Canopy growth. it was unpleasant, but all that dilution fixed their balance sheet. I don’t see the stock, which is down 56.0% in 2025, as attractive, and I remain concerned about their US operations being held as an investment rather than as part of their operations (to maintain a NASDAQ listing).
Cronos Group. I’m not much of a fan of it, other than the huge cash and such a large majority ownership by Altria. That said, it makes up 6.7% of my model portfolio at 420 Investor, despite being the strongest LP of the five, up 23.0% year-to-date.
Organigram. I like the balance and the valuation seems about right. What matters is that their actions were strong. This week, the company announced a new CEO, who will take over in mid-January. I don’t know much about him, but he spent two decades at British American Tobacco, which owns a lot of OGI. The stock has pulled back a lot and is down 0.6% in 2025. I include it in my model portfolio at 11.9%.
Tilray Brands. I am not a fan of this company at all and they have zero involvement in the US state regulated cannabis market. I thought they were bullshitting the MedMen and I’m glad their investment was completely written off. The latest ban on hemp products, which will take effect next year, undermines the efforts they’ve been making with THC drinks. I really liked it when it was under $1 earlier this year, as I expressed here, but now I don’t care. The stock will reverse split after the close on Monday. I don’t have a problem with this at all, but many investors don’t like reverse splits. TLRY closed at $1.03 but announced a reverse split after the close. Compared to last year, it decreased by 21.8%.
Village farmers. I loved it earlier this year, and I loved it when they made their big move in May to divest themselves of their produce business. The stock is very much up (418.2% year-to-date in my opinion) and not widely followed by Wall Street. The company didn’t provide any guidance, but analysts’ estimates look really high. I think many are excited about their potential win in the Texas medical cannabis market, which is in the process of expanding from 3 licensed producers to 15, with news from VFF on 12/1. This Texas is excited about program changes and producer expansion, but I’m still not excited about the potential financial impact that could eat into cash and not be recognized on the income statement. Note that MSOS has acquired a position (in the summer ahead of news of a possible realignment). The ETF currently has 3.5 million shares, a position of 2.2 percent of the ETF, although it sold 2 percent of its holdings when it hit redemption last week.
I write a lot about Canadian LPs on Seeking Alpha, and you always can look at my articles more details there. This past weekend I upgraded my rating on Organigram from Hold to Buy and downgraded my rating on Village Farms from Sell to Strong Sell. Last week I upgraded Canopy Growth from Strong Sell to Hold after being very negative for quite some time. In late September, I downgraded Tilray Brands to Strong Sell. That one rallied sharply a few days later on their Q1 report, but failed. In mid-September, I initiated coverage of SNDL via selling. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs in my Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands, and Village Farms.
Canadian LPs are doing better than most other sectors. I’ve written positively about hemp REITs, and they seem like a better bet to me. I think investors should be careful with Canadian LPs as they are no longer as cheap as they used to be and have been buoyed by enthusiasm for MSOs since the potential realignment was announced in August, although the realignment will not affect them. I hope there are improvements in Canadian taxation, distribution and regulation, as these changes can help LPs. Until then, I suggest caution.
I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
This data-driven, fact-based search engine will be continually updated based on new financial filings so readers can stay up-to-date. Companies must file with the SEC or SEDAR and be current to be considered for inclusion. When we launched this resource in May 2019, companies with more than $2.5 million in quarterly revenue qualified. As the industry has grown and as more companies have gone public, we have raised the minimum several times, including $5 million in October 2019, $7.5 million in June 2020, up to $10 million in November 2020, $12.5 million in August 2021, $12.5 million in August 2021, and $202 in September 2021. million dollars. hemp industry, we raised the minimum again in May 2024. The senior list has a minimum of US$50 million (C$68.4 million) and the junior list now has a minimum of US$25 million (C$34.2 million).
Note on adjusted operating income
In May 2019, we added an additional measure, Adjusted Operating Income, which we detailed in our newsletter. The calculation takes reported operating income and adjusts it for any changes in the fair value of biological assets required under IFRS accounting. We believe this adjustment improves comparability between companies under IFRS and GAAP accounting. We note that operating income can often include one-time items such as stock compensation, inventory write-offs or public listing costs, and we encourage readers to understand how these non-cash items may impact quarterly financials. Many companies have moved from IFRS to US GAAP accounting, which has reduced our need to make adjustments. Please note that our rating only includes actual reported income and non pro forma income. We also note that companies with non-hemp operations must provide segment-level financial statements detailing not only revenue but also operating profit in order for their operating profit to be included in the tracking. Currently, Jazz Pharma (NASDAQ: JAZZ ) and Tilray (TSX: TLRY ) (NASDAQ: TLRY ) do not provide this information.
Tracker inclusion updates
At the time of our last update on February 17th, 19 companies were eligible for inclusion on the senior lists, including 15 in USD and 4 in Canadian currency, while there were 11 companies on the junior lists. Now, 14 companies denominated in US dollars and 4 denominated in Canadian dollars qualify for the senior lists, for a total of 18 now. The junior list includes 10 companies denominated in US dollars and 2 in Canadian dollars. Tracking public cannabis company revenue and earnings on a combined basis now includes 30 companies. US senior listing could lose Cannabist (OTC: CBSTF ) if it fails to report its Q4 financials.
Companies that have reported since mid-February are included
Most of these companies are in December year-end and the year-end reports are almost completely done. This section introduces important changes. The next big reporting season is in mid-May, although a few companies will report before then.
Senior and Junior – US Dollar Report
Q4 reports began in late February and are still ongoing, with Glass House (OTC: GLASF ) reporting Tuesday afternoon. 7 MSOs reported more than $100 million in Q4 revenue with minimal operating income or losses. Growth has been very slow for the top 5 countries, with annual growth ranging from -8% to 6%.
None of the Big 5 MSOs have yet scheduled calls for their Q1 financials in May, although GTI has changed its policy and will not be hosting any for now. Here’s the current outlook for all of them in 2026, according to Coifin.
Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ) – revenue is expected to increase 5% to $1.33 billion on adjusted EBITDA of $262.6 million, up 3%.
Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) (CSE: GTII ) – revenue is expected to increase 3% to $1.21 billion with adjusted EBITDA up 3% to $332.5 million.
Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) (CSE: TRUL ) – Revenue is expected to decline 1% to $1.17 billion and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 6% to $400.4 million.
Verano Holdings (OTC: VRNO ) (NEO: VRNO ) – revenue is expected to rise 1% to $829.3 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to decline 1% to $225.9 million.
Cresco Labs (OTC: CRLBF ) (CSE: CL ) – Revenue is expected to decline 5% to $622.2 million and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 8% to $145.5 million.
Senior and Junior – Canadian Dollar Report
High Tide (NASDAQ: HITI ) (TSXV: HITI ) recently reported its 4th quarter, and since then, the stock has taken a nosedive.
Auxly (TSX: XLY ) (OTC: CBWTF ) has yet to report Q4.
The Public Cannabis Company Earnings Tracker by New Cannabis Ventures is not a recommendation of any company, and you should not use it as investment advice. A tilde next to a date means an approximate date. All calculations are derived from SEC or SEDAR filings. Any questions or licensing inquiries please contact us.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Statistics Canada released January retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales are declining from December levels, down 8.4% to C$466.1 million, an all-time monthly high. The sequential decrease increased by the same 8.4% on a daily basis due to the same number of days compared to the previous month. December, originally reported at C$503.7 million, was revised slightly higher to C$508.6 million. December sales rose 6.4% from a year ago, up from May’s 8.3% and June’s 7.5%, but better than the previous lowest annual growth since legalization began in September 2024 of -0.9% and -1.6% in October due to the BC strike. Growth was much slower in December at just 3.9%. Total sales are expected to increase by 4.5% to C$5.39 billion in 2024 and by 4.1% to C$5.62 billion in 2025.
An increase in the number of shops as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales fell 8.6% from December and 4% from a year ago. Alberta was down 4.7% from December, but up 1% from a year ago. British Columbia was down 9.5% from December but up 31% from a year ago, while Quebec was down 12.5% from December but up 29% from a year ago.
February sales data will be released on April 24.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
Each month we share BDSA data and Florida is one of the markets where they provide monthly sales estimates. Florida does a fantastic job of sharing weekly data on unit volumes, but it doesn’t provide revenue data.
The BDSA estimates Florida hemp sales totaled $126.1 million in February, down 0.4% from a year ago. January sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier, and 2025 sales are expected to rise just 2.9% after rising 20.9% in 2024.
Florida provides a wealth of data that allows for a good understanding of state trends. First, they provide the number of patients, which, according to 2/27 report was 933 thousand. Growth has slowed down.
During the last year, the growth was 3.4%, and in the last three months it increased by only 0.4%. Patient growth is projected to be 3.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2024, following an 11% increase in 2023. The medical cannabis industry is maturing in the state, and the current number of patients is almost 4% of the total population.
Florida shares the total number of stores (742 currently), which is up 4.7% year-over-year. Ahead of the election in 2024, which could legalize cannabis for adult use, there was a big increase, with the number of shops increasing by 14%. The growth of stores has led to more competition.
The state splits the volumes, and the two largest parts are “medical marijuana” in mg for THC products and “marijuana for smoking” in ounces. Sales of medical cannabis products rose 12.6% last week, while smoking cannabis grew 11.4%. This growth was much higher than the revenue growth projected by the BDSA, suggesting that pricing is under pressure.
Florida also breaks down unit sales by licensed operator and shares how many distribution locations each operates. This data shows how concentrated the state is, as 51.2% of the state’s vertically integrated dispensaries are owned by just four companies, including Trulieve, Verano (MÜV), Curaleaf, and Ayr Wellness (which bought Liberty Health). These four companies sold 56% of medical cannabis and 61% of smokable cannabis last week. Interestingly, Trulieve, which has nearly twice as many stores as runner-up Verano, saw its medical cannabis volumes decline from a year ago.
When voters failed to approve adult-use cannabis in 2024, falling short of the required 60% affirmative vote, these major Florida operators saw their stocks decimated. It’s been the hardest for Ayr Wellness, but they’ve all come down a lot.
It’s not yet known if Florida voters will vote again this year, but things could improve if adult legalization is implemented. Also, the federal ban on THC from hemp could increase demand later this year when it is implemented. With that said, Florida’s medical cannabis market appears to be struggling. Trulieve is very large in the state and has significant influence with it compared to other states. Analysts forecast Trulieve’s 2026 revenue to decline 1% after falling less than 1% in 2025. More importantly, they forecast adjusted EBITDA to decline 6% in 2026.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 2 weeks.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
