You read this week’s publication New Cannabis Ventures Weekly Newsletter we publish from October 2015. We no longer send them. By mail as before but we post this and all newsletters On our website hereA number
Friends,
Every quarter, I refresh the Cannabis Stock Index, which covers active cannabis shares. The index returns at the end of 2012 and developed as the cannabis industry developed. I will share the full update next week, when Q3 is over, but I want to discuss a change in the index on the upcoming re-elexatization, which was based on data on 09/23.
The last quarter, I refreshed that the figure would again have 23 members, which is a typical type of shares. What surprised me about changes was that the MSOS in the index went down 6 to only 3. It is possible that the removal of its low trade in June may have been more shocking. 3 MSOS presented only 13% of the index at 6/30.
This next quarter, the number of shares, which qualifies 28, four new or returning members, are given to MSOS. Returning the indicator will be CRESCO LABS, CURALAF, TERRASCEND and VERANO HOLDINGS. On 7/30, on 7/30, 25% of the 7s index will be presented. Although MSOS’s share has sharply increased, this is not a high percentage. At the end of April 2024, only only only MSOS was 38% of the index when there were 11 MSOS 29.
I have constantly discussed how cannabels and investors can extend their concentration beyond only one part of the cannabis, so “only 25%” do not stand out to me. It’s the same percentage of what Canadian LPS is holding and it is inferior to 39% of assistance. MSOS has a great drawback because they trade on OTC, but they also face 280e taxation, which is combined with the debt of the balance sheet sheet.
The Rebalanced index will include all 5 of the largest MSOS, plus two people. The most interesting thing for me is what will not include. Of course, the heart is no longer in the figure, but there are several msos that are not yet in it, despite their mass income. The one who stands out is Vireo’s growth, which is not described due to its trading volume, which has not increased enough.
The growth of Varo first started trading in early 2019. For some time, it was an increase of kindness, but last summer became a virus. Originally, it was a medical canpian company based in Minnesota and operates in New York before I expanded Maryland. The company had to be united with the review, but the deal was distinguished and remained in court. Bengal Bengal Capital Josh Rosen joined as an interim executive director in early 2023 and became General Director in the summer of 2024 before leaving for October. The current CEO of the company, John Mazarakis, who joined Chicago Atlantic, at the end of 2024 as a company announced a big plan Buy 4 single state operators and collect $ 75 million for one share for $ 0.625. Company actually raised $ 81 millionA number of this was quite impressive.
There have been some people who are discussing Vireo growth, including multiple jacket Aaron Edelheit in many articles, as well as Pablo Zuanic. The company has already closed most of the achievements announced in December and caused $ 48 million, completing the quarter for $ 106 million in cash. Still, it seems that a lot of analyst does not seem coverage. In the past month, the shares on average made a daily trading shares that are lower than $ 400k minimum required.
Perhaps more disappointing than the lack of interest in investors has been the price of prices. At the end of 2024, the shares are currently kept by 10.7% when the company announced that it sold $ 81 million worth $ 0.625. MSOS gathered by 22%, and Cannabis Global Index has purchased 4.9% as of 9/25. Since the company announced transactions, it doubled at prices by 22% with MSOS. While the return of a year in MSOS is a lot, the vodge has been a little advanced.
Of course, Varo’s growth has seen a lot over the past few years. In 2023, it took the low level of all time, but the shares were falling since August. Cannabis investors should consider it. Big capital raising is underwater, and the volume of trade is small compared to the size of its actions.
Commercial volumes have expanded, especially for MSOS, and Varo’s growth has been transformed into itself. Investors, however, seem to be not yet. I continue to control the company’s evolution, but still do not include it in my focus of 19 shares. I want the growth of Viro to the best and hope that the buyers of his shares are approaching the end of the year, now 20%, do not stay in the red.
Frankly,
Alan
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This data-driven, fact-based search engine will be continually updated based on new financial filings so readers can stay up-to-date. Companies must file with the SEC or SEDAR and be current to be considered for inclusion. When we launched this resource in May 2019, companies with more than $2.5 million in quarterly revenue qualified. As the industry has grown and as more companies have gone public, we have raised the minimum several times, including $5 million in October 2019, $7.5 million in June 2020, up to $10 million in November 2020, $12.5 million in August 2021, $12.5 million in August 2021, and $202 in September 2021. million dollars. hemp industry, we raised the minimum again in May 2024. The senior roster has a minimum of US$50 million (C$70.2 million) and the junior roster now has a minimum of US$25 million (C$35.1 million).
Note on adjusted operating income
In May 2019, we added an additional measure, Adjusted Operating Income, which we detailed in our newsletter. The calculation takes reported operating income and adjusts it for any changes in the fair value of biological assets required under IFRS accounting. We believe this adjustment improves comparability between companies under IFRS and GAAP accounting. We note that operating income can often include one-time items such as stock compensation, inventory write-offs or public listing costs, and we encourage readers to understand how these non-cash items may impact quarterly financials. Many companies have moved from IFRS to US GAAP accounting, which has reduced our need to make adjustments. Please note that our rating only includes actual reported income and non pro forma income. We also note that companies with non-hemp operations must provide segment-level financial statements detailing not only revenue but also operating profit in order for their operating profit to be included in the tracking. Currently, Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB ) (TSX: ACB ), Jazz Pharma (NASDAQ: JAZZ ) and Tilray (TSX: TLRY ) (NASDAQ: TLRY ) do not provide this information.
Tracker inclusion updates
At the time of our last update on August 13, 16 companies were eligible for inclusion on the senior lists, including 13 in USD and 3 in Canadian currency, and 11 companies on the junior list. Now, 14 companies denominated in US dollars and 5 denominated in Canadian dollars qualify for the senior lists, for a total of 19 now. The junior list includes 11 companies that report in US dollars and 1 in Canadian dollars. Tracking public cannabis company revenue and earnings on a combined basis now includes 31 companies. One company, Glass House Brands (OTC: GLASF) (NEO: GLAS.AU) moved from the American Junior list to the Senior list. Fluent (OTC: CNTMF) (CSE: FNT.U) has been added to the American Junior list. In Canada, Auxly Cannabis (OTC: CWBTF) (TSX: XLY) has joined the Junior List.
Companies that have reported since mid-August are included
There have been few reports since our last update, as most of these companies are operating at the end of December and meet earlier deadlines than the middle of the month.
Senior and Junior – US Dollar Report
Neither company has yet reported Q3, but updates will begin to trickle in next week. Tilray brands (NASDAQ: TLRY ) (TSX: TLRY ) reported its fiscal quarter earlier this month. The diversified company grew its cannabis business 5% year-over-year as it declined 5% sequentially. Overall for the company was up from a year ago, but adjusted EBITDA was lower than expected due to lower gross margin.
One major company that has diversified beyond cannabis, and Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG ), will report its fiscal 4th quarter by the end of the year. It has not yet scheduled the next conference call, although its website suggests 11/5 could be a tentative date.
Some of the 5 largest MSOs have scheduled calls for their Q3 financial reports, although GTI has changed its policy and will not be hosting any for now. Here is the current outlook of all of them.
Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ) – revenue is expected to decline 4% year-over-year to $317.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $66.4 million, a 12% decline.
Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) (CSE: TRUL ) – Revenue is expected to increase 1% year-over-year to $296 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline less than 1% to $95.9 million, a 13% decline sequentially.
Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) (CSE: GTII ) – revenue is expected to increase 1% year-over-year to $290.9 million and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 9% to $81.9 million.
Verano Holdings (OTC: VRNOF ) (NEO: VRNO ) – revenue is expected to decline 6% to $208 million and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 6% to $60.7 million.
Cresco Labs (OTC: CRLBF ) (CSE: CL ) – Revenue is expected to decline 9% to $163.7 million and adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 29% to $36.5 million.
Senior and Junior – Canadian Dollar Report
Since our last update, only High Tide (NASDAQ: HITI ) (TSXV: HITI ) has reported among Canadian listed companies. Revenue was up sequentially in its fiscal quarter, and operating profit was just under $4 million.
One of Canada’s senior list members, SNDL, has scheduled its quarterly call.
The Public Cannabis Company Earnings Tracker by New Cannabis Ventures is not a recommendation of any company, and you should not use it as investment advice. A tilde next to a date means an approximate date. All calculations are derived from SEC or SEDAR filings. Any questions or licensing inquiries please contact us.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
MSOs’ financial reporting starts in less than 2 weeks, with Verano reporting its Q3 on the 29th. Trulieve and Curaleaf, among the major MSOs, are due to report next week. It calendar builds, although major player GTI will not be hosting a conference call.
As of 15, the global hemp stock index is up 1.1% this month, extending a massive 3Q gain, and is now up 12.9% year-to-date. MSOs fared better than other parts of the market, as the US Hemp Operator Index, at 15.11, grew 80.7% in 2025. MSOS, which is heavily concentrated in three MSOs, grew by 41.7%. The MSO’s move, however, has less to do with fundamental change and more to do with a potential realignment of cannabis. If cannabis moves to schedule III or higher, it will disappear 280E tax.
In October, the MSOS rose by 12.7% and the US Hemp Operator Index by 16.3%. Here are the incomes of each of the 9 members at the moment.
I haven’t yet shared the updated NCV Revenue Tracker article that I run before the financial statements, but in the latest one that came after the Q2 reports, I suggested that financial updates failed to impress. At the time, I shared some Big 5 analysts’ projections for 2025, and they’re not much higher now for adjusted EBITDA. In fact, Cresco Labs is slightly lower and is now expected to fall 29%, Curaleaf, slightly higher, is expected to fall 12%, GTI, also slightly higher, is expected to fall 8%, Trulieve is still expected to slip 1%, and Verano, slightly higher, is expected to fall 6%. None of these large MSOs posted adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter. So stocks are flying despite declining earnings.
The reason for the lower forecast adjusted EBITDA compared to a year ago is partly due to lower revenues for some, although GTI took a hit to its adjusted EBITDA as it will pay after the sale of its brands. This is also due to the weakness of the state-regulated cannabis space. It’s not clear why so many state markets are so weak, but a BDSA article from earlier this month regarding September made it clear. showed broad weakness. The illegal market and cannabis markets are obstacles, but some markets, like Florida, are just maturing and competitive.
Most MSOs look very cheap, but how long cannabis sales remain contested will play a role in the timing of the stock recovery. Of course, expectations of the end of 280E taxation have boosted stocks, although they are down significantly from a year ago, except for one.
What’s interesting about the year is that a year ago, MSOs expected Florida to move to adult use after the election, which failed to happen. Voters approved it, but 58% narrowly missed the required 60%. The next vote could be in 2026. These stocks have averaged -18.1%, while MSOS is down 21.5%. The 6th largest position in MSOS is Glass House Brands, which has risen 7.8% over the past year. Of course, one big MSO has dried up, as AYR Wellness is down 98.8%.
So MSOs are up a lot this year and since the end of June (+160% for US Hemp Operator Index and +124% for MSOS), but they are still down over the past year and much more so over the last 5 years. If the 280E takes off, it should help the fundamentals significantly. If so, be careful as most MSOs have balance issues.
The cannabis industry is going through a lot of changes. Who would have expected Target to try to get into THC drink retail? It’s been almost a dozen years since the first state opened its doors to adult cannabis sales, and the federal and state governments have yet to decide on regulations or taxes. Investors have lost a lot of money in recent years. Many companies, large and small, have been destroyed in America. However, cannabis remains popular among Americans. Let’s hope we clear up the taxation and regulation of the hemp industry.
Sincerely,
Alan:
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Michigan Cannabis sales in September decreased from a year ago, as they were down 11.3% sequentially, which was -8.3% on a daily basis. At 251.3 million dollars, sales decreased by 5.8 percent compared to the previous year.
The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 60.8% year-over-year to $0.4 million, down 18.7% sequentially, and adult-use sales down 5.6% year-over-year to $250.9 million, up 11.3% sequentially.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For adults
Medical
As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. September’s average price of $1,011 per pound is up 2.2% sequentially from a record low and down 19.7% from a year ago.
Michigan hemp sales will grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. In 2024, they increased by 7.6% to $3.29 billion. expand further as supply becomes more available and as distribution expands.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
