You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Hemp stocks have retreated significantly since the beginning of this month and are now down in October. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which closed at 7.03, was down 8.5% in October. Annual growth is only 2.2%. After four consecutive declines in four years, the market is close to extending its losing streak.
MSOS closed at 4.44, a 1.5% discount to its NAV, and is down 7.3% in October, but up 16.5% year to date. Last week it was at 5.40, up 41.7% from the previous day and up 12.7% in October when I warned about upcoming financial statements. I looked at the monthly returns of the 9 MSOs in the American Hemp Operator Index and they ranged from +4.4% to +35.8% over that time. Now they are lower, with six of them recording losses.
Looking at the 7 largest MSOS positions, all are above 5%, with two, Curaleaf and Trulieve, above 21%, the best performer being Verano at 7.7% in October. The three largest positions were all down: Curaleaf, down 3.9%, Trulieve, down 8.8%, and Green Thumb Industries, down 9.9%.
The three largest positions to date are very different, with one double-digit decrease and two significant increases;
Looking at the other four majors, which range in size from 5.6% to 7.7%, they are all double-digit gainers;
Glass house brands: +31.0%
TerrAscend: +23.6%
Cresco Labs: +21.5%
Verano Holdings: +19.7%
These 7 largest MSOS positions are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, albeit with lower percentages for some and lower for all. While they mostly rallied in 2025, all have declined since last November’s election. As I discussed in last week’s newsletter, the current financial situation is not exciting at all. What drives them? A possible realignment which, if it happens, could eliminate 280E taxation.
There’s more to the cannabis sector than just MSOs, some of which have surged since late June. The index currently has members from five other subsectors, but only one from Biotech, only one from THC Beverage and only one from Canadian Retailers. MSOs make up 26.1% of the index, which is lower than Ancillaries at 39.1% and higher than Canadian LPs at 23.8%. I actually like the affiliate programs and still recommend them to investors look at hemp REITswhich I last discussed here on 8/14.
I was a big fan of Canadian LPs earlier this year, but my exposure in my 420 Investor model portfolio is only two names and slightly lower than index exposure. Canopy Growth, which I’ve disliked for a while, is one of the Canadian LPs in the index that I avoid. It is down 51.8% in 2025, but is up 28.2% since late July and 59.0% since April 8, its all-time closing low. I expect this one to make a new all-time low. The other Canadian LP I’m concerned about is Tilray Brands, which is up 9.0% year-to-date but is very expensive in my opinion. It has quadrupled from its all-time low four months ago. I think it could be pulled back dramatically.
Looking at all 28 members of the Global Hemp Stock Index, returns averaged 11.7% year-to-date, well ahead of the benchmark. The average return was 7.0%, also before the index return.
As I said above, the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 2.2% year-to-date, which is worse than the return of cash. Stocks outside the sector have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning nearly 15% this year. Hemp stocks could come under pressure if stocks pull back again. I have also shared some other reasons like 280E taxation does not end. The hemp sector lacks institutional buy-in and strong growth. It has recently been promoted by traders, but it may not end 2025 well. Be careful.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
With the first month of the year almost half over, the Global Hemp Stock Index rose 0.3% to 6.61. While that’s better than cash, it lags the S&P 500, which gained 1.2%, and notably the Russell 2000, which gained 6.9%.
The global hemp stock index has been in decline over the past five years, falling 4.2% in 2025, its best annual performance since a recent surge in 2020. The hemp industry is so down and should be rallying, but most bets on that outcome have lost money.
The index was recalculated at year-end, with three stocks exiting and two entering, leaving the index with 27 stocks. So far in 2026, 17 are up, with double-digit percentage gains, and 10 are down, including three that are down more than 20%. Here is a table that includes all the companies and some additional information:
The average market cap is $1.1 billion. MSOS is up 4.7% year-to-date, and the index contains 7 MSOs, all of which have gained. The last column shows that five of these seven have negative tangible book value, suggesting potential downside risk for those with significant debt.
I keep a close eye on 16 of the 27 names. Canopy Growth, Cresco Labs, Cronos Group, Curaleaf, GrowGeneration, Green Thumb Industries, Innovative Industrial Properties, WM Technology, Organigram, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Scotts Miracle-TilrayrA BTrumsndce, Villa Verano. I’ve covered most of the others and written about RYTHM and SNDL on Seeking Alpha.
The drops include two recent additions that got me thinking more about inclusion rules. These two as well as others have very low market caps. They all met the minimum price rule and minimum average daily trading value criteria, and they are in the cannabis sector. The next rebalance, which will take place in March, may include some new rules.
The overall stock market is on the rise, but hemp stocks are still not catching the attention of investors. Shares in the index, up just 0.3% year to date, are trading near their 50-day and 150-day moving averages. MSOs are helping the market so far, while several stocks are hurting it. My model portfolio in the 420 Investor, which did very well in 2025, is outperforming the index so far in 2026. I’m very underweight MSOs relative to the index, own two, slightly overweight Canadian LPs (three names) and have a large overweight in ancillaries (four names). The model portfolio had 19% cash on 1/14.
The cannabis industry suffers from slow growth, increased competition, a slowdown in adult-use states, an uncertain regulatory environment at the federal level, and many unfair taxes (280E) Hopefully things will improve in 2026.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Michigan hemp sales for the month of December increased from a year ago as they rose 3.8% sequentially, which was +0.5% on a daily basis. At $269.7 million, sales increased by 1.6 percent compared to last year.
The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 50.2% year-over-year to $0.4 million, up 10.8% sequentially, and adult-use sales up 1.7% year-over-year to $269.3 million, up 3.8% sequentially.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For adultsMedical
As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. The average price of $932 a pound in December fell 2.6 percent sequentially to a new record low and fell 15.9 percent from a year earlier.
Michigan hemp sales are expected to grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. forward as supply becomes more accessible and distribution expands.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
The hemp industry ended 2025 with a slight decline. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which started at 100 at the end of 2012, has fallen 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th consecutive annual decline.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS ) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it’s down a lot since late 2020 when it was at $36.50. The 5-year yield at $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 85.2 percent, just shy of a recession.
So far in 2026, the global hemp stock index is unchanged. MSOS, which rose in December, fell 3.0% to $4.58. After last year’s big jump, investors probably aren’t too worried just yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t have, because the realignment is still in progress, and if it passes, it’s very incremental because of the elimination 280E tax. Of course, it remains to be seen whether a realignment will actually happen, and if so, when it will happen.
Investors or traders have rushed to MSOS over the past few years in hopes of a reshuffle. The lift in late December had massive volume, surpassing the volume in August when rumors of a possible realignment under Trump first surfaced. It was also heavier than when the MSOS fell after the last election in 2024. So far in 2026, volume has been fairly low, as seen in this six-month chart:
MSOS is still trading above the 12/11 price, as are most of its stocks. It’s also trading up more than 100% from near its all-time low of $2 set last year. To me, while the stock has fallen well from its recent peak, down 36.8% from its 12/18 intraday high, it looks like it could continue to decline. The recent downturn has not spurred buyers. In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I have very little exposure to MSOs compared to the Global Hemp Stock Index, just 6.6% in both MSOs compared to 25.9%.
The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I’ve discussed before: Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) at 67.7% MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a major debt challengeso far in 2026, it has fallen by 1.4% and moved from the second largest position to the third. Trulieve, the current largest holding, fell 5.6%, while GTI, now the second largest, rose 2.0%. MSOS has not purchased or sold shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.
I have watched MSOS since its day 1 which was in late 2020. Although I was and continue to be highly critical of the way it was run, I commended them for their early efforts. Unfortunately, there are no cannabis investment funds, including ETFs, that come close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share count dramatically over the past year, despite a recent small drawdown. Investors should understand that if it hits redemptions, it could put pressure on the MSO subsector and the price of MSOS.
It is very possible that hemp will be reclassified with the end of 280E taxation. It is also possible that large MSOs will not have to pay past 280E taxes that they did not pay. If 280E goes away and the previous liabilities go away, it will be very positive for MSOs and it will likely eliminate potential MSOS repayments. Of course, if 280E holds, traders stacked in MSOS will have trouble finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of the 280E.
I continue to recommend that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times, as well as recently, that hemp REITs make more senseand I have a lot of exposure to both of them in my modeling portfolio. There are other supporting names that should have upside if the 280E goes away for their customers, but less downside if it stays. Canadian LPs might also make sense. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to suggest that it will.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
