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Cannabis Stocks Could Get Crushed Further – New Cannabis Ventures

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Tilray Is a Dangerous Stock – New Cannabis Ventures

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Hemp stocks have retreated significantly since the beginning of this month and are now down in October. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which closed at 7.03, was down 8.5% in October. Annual growth is only 2.2%. After four consecutive declines in four years, the market is close to extending its losing streak.

MSOS closed at 4.44, a 1.5% discount to its NAV, and is down 7.3% in October, but up 16.5% year to date. Last week it was at 5.40, up 41.7% from the previous day and up 12.7% in October when I warned about upcoming financial statements. I looked at the monthly returns of the 9 MSOs in the American Hemp Operator Index and they ranged from +4.4% to +35.8% over that time. Now they are lower, with six of them recording losses.

Looking at the 7 largest MSOS positions, all are above 5%, with two, Curaleaf and Trulieve, above 21%, the best performer being Verano at 7.7% in October. The three largest positions were all down: Curaleaf, down 3.9%, Trulieve, down 8.8%, and Green Thumb Industries, down 9.9%.

The three largest positions to date are very different, with one double-digit decrease and two significant increases;

Looking at the other four majors, which range in size from 5.6% to 7.7%, they are all double-digit gainers;

  • Glass house brands: +31.0%
  • TerrAscend: +23.6%
  • Cresco Labs: +21.5%
  • Verano Holdings: +19.7%

These 7 largest MSOS positions are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, albeit with lower percentages for some and lower for all. While they mostly rallied in 2025, all have declined since last November’s election. As I discussed in last week’s newsletter, the current financial situation is not exciting at all. What drives them? A possible realignment which, if it happens, could eliminate 280E taxation.

There’s more to the cannabis sector than just MSOs, some of which have surged since late June. The index currently has members from five other subsectors, but only one from Biotech, only one from THC Beverage and only one from Canadian Retailers. MSOs make up 26.1% of the index, which is lower than Ancillaries at 39.1% and higher than Canadian LPs at 23.8%. I actually like the affiliate programs and still recommend them to investors look at hemp REITswhich I last discussed here on 8/14.

I was a big fan of Canadian LPs earlier this year, but my exposure in my 420 Investor model portfolio is only two names and slightly lower than index exposure. Canopy Growth, which I’ve disliked for a while, is one of the Canadian LPs in the index that I avoid. It is down 51.8% in 2025, but is up 28.2% since late July and 59.0% since April 8, its all-time closing low. I expect this one to make a new all-time low. The other Canadian LP I’m concerned about is Tilray Brands, which is up 9.0% year-to-date but is very expensive in my opinion. It has quadrupled from its all-time low four months ago. I think it could be pulled back dramatically.

Looking at all 28 members of the Global Hemp Stock Index, returns averaged 11.7% year-to-date, well ahead of the benchmark. The average return was 7.0%, also before the index return.

As I said above, the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 2.2% year-to-date, which is worse than the return of cash. Stocks outside the sector have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning nearly 15% this year. Hemp stocks could come under pressure if stocks pull back again. I have also shared some other reasons like 280E taxation does not end. The hemp sector lacks institutional buy-in and strong growth. It has recently been promoted by traders, but it may not end 2025 well. Be careful.

Sincerely,

Alan:


New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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American Cannabis Coverage by State

Cannabis Sales Failed to March – New Cannabis Ventures

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Cannabis Sales Failed to March – New Cannabis Ventures

New Cannabis Ventures offers readers this easy-to-read exclusive summary of BDSA’s 15-state monthly cannabis sales data.

Cannabis sales rose 6.5% sequentially in March. Adjusted for the higher number of days, sales were down 3.8% sequentially on a daily basis. In this review, we break down the results by state, starting with the western markets and then ending with the eastern markets. Overall, the BDSA estimates sales in 15 markets totaled $2.14 billion in March, up 1.6 percent from a year ago.

Western markets

BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. In March, annual growth was negative in four states. Growth in each of these states fell consecutively on a daily basis.

Eastern markets

BDSA provides coverage for Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In March, annual growth ranged from -6.8% in Florida to +32.7% in Ohio. Ohio began using adults in August, spurring growth. Note that Florida and Pennsylvania are medical markets only. On a daily basis, sequential growth declined in seven out of ten markets. Annual growth was negative in five markets and rose sharply in only two states. We warned of a potential slowdown in Florida despite strong dispensary and unit volume growth due to competitive pressure.

For readers interested in a deeper look hemp markets in these fifteen states and more, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and product details, longer history and segmentation by product attributes, learn how BDSA Solutions can give you access to actionable data and analytics.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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280E

The Cannabis Storm Will Hopefully Pass Over – New Cannabis Ventures

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The Cannabis Storm Will Hopefully Pass Over – New Cannabis Ventures

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Hemp stocks peaked in early 2021 after a rally in 2020, but have been on a downward trend since then. That 2020 rally was pretty big from the depths of the post-pandemic lows, but the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 5.2% that year overall. Since then, it has fallen from 44.39 on 12/31/20 to 5.26 currently, a decline of 88.2%. The index was at 100 as of 12/31/12 and has fallen over 94% since then. Only in 2026, the decline was 20.2% year-on-year. What a terrible storm this has been.

I wrote about 280E tax at the end of 2022, naming its potential elimination as one of them two great cannabis catalysts potentially, and another could be exiting the OTC for US hemp companies. Although none of these have happened, the 280E taxation could be abolished if the hemp reclassification takes place. The president issued a decree, but there is no timetable.

These stocks have risen over the past year, but they have fallen significantly since the 2024 election. Hemp stocks certainly look cheap by most standards, but for some, the risk remains that their balance sheets will be left in a very bad shape. A number of companies have already surrendered to debt holders, such as 4Front, Ayr Wellness, Cannabist, Gold Flora, MedMen, Schwazze and Tilt Holdings, but others will have to refinance their debt. I have called Curaleaf out on their massive debt and they have recently extended some of it, although the debt level remains quite high. There are other MSOs that are also facing challenges with their debt.

280E taxation remains a big issue for US hemp operators, but it’s not really a problem for Canadian LPs operating in Canada or around the world. Not only are they not subject to 280E taxation, they trade on NASDAQ and not OTC. However, these stocks are also in a bear market. My model portfolio of 420 Investor currently has 42.8% exposure to Canadian LPs and only 10.3% exposure to MSOs. The Global Hemp Stock Index, recently recalculated on 3/31, currently has 25.8% exposure to MSOs and 29.1% exposure to Canadian LPs.

What I like about Canadian LPs is that they have potential exposure in Europe and Australia, as Canada is a fairly mature market. Canada, which does not have a 280E tax, has a very high tax on cultivation. Maybe that will change. In any case, that market has started to consolidate, with acquisitions and license cuts. However, there are many outstanding licenses (1,002, including 110 pending removal due to suspension, cancellation or expiration). These stocks trade at or below tangible book value. Some of them are subject to 280E end of taxation through their investments.

Here’s the past half-year’s action in the seven Canadian LPs currently in the Global Hemp Stock Index:

All have fallen and two have lost more than half their value. During this period, MSOS is down 23.2%, and the Global Cannabis Stock Index is down 31.5%.

US hemp stocks have been linked to potential realignments and possible elimination of 280E taxation, but those may not happen. Cannabis-backed companies would benefit from helping their clients, but most Canadian LPs are not subject to the US. Hopefully this bear market will end soon. Happy Easter and Passover everyone!

Sincerely,

Alan:


This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.

Michigan Uniform Commercial Code (“UCC”) Article 9 Sale

On April 7, Monster Holdings Group’s equipment will be auctioned at the Jackson County Circuit Court in Jackson, Michigan at 9:00 a.m. ET. All applications must be submitted online. Learn more Article 9 of the sale of all assets of this mining company.

Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.


New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 3 weeks.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks were crushed in March

Capital increase

British American Tobacco to boost Charlotte’s Web stake

Jushi borrows to refinance debt at 12.5%

Financial statements

Tilray Q3 hemp revenue grew well

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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Advanced Flower Capital

Cannabis Stocks Were Crushed in March – New Cannabis Ventures

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Alan Brochstein, CFA

Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. Although the index rose in December, it fell on the year. In January, the indicator decreased by 14.4%, reaching 5.89. February saw a drop in prices, but the market recovered with the index ending the month at 5.86. March was very difficult, with the index falling 10.6% to 5.24.

After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 5 27 members in Q1, gained 53.0% in the third quarter, but fell 14.2% in the fourth quarter, down 4.2% for the full year. In 2026, it decreased by 20.5 percent.

Since its peak in February 2021, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 94.3% from a closing high of 92.48.

The 3 strongest names in March, each an MSO, were all up more than 13%;

  • summer (OTC: VRNO). +0.9%
  • Glass House (OTC: GLASF). +0.2%
  • Jazz Pharma (NASDAQ: JAZZ). -0.5%

These three stocks have been mixed year-to-date, with only JAZZ rallying so far. The other two have less decline than the index.

The 3 weakest names were all down more than 13% in March;

Akanda and iPower 2026 have both fallen significantly so far, while Turning Point Brands has fallen slightly worse than the benchmark.

The index has been recalculated as of the close of 31.03.31 and is based on 24.03. For the second quarter, the index will have 24 names, down from 27 names, with six removals and three additions. Out of the index are AKAN, GRWG, IPW, RYM, TSNDF and YCBD. Advanced Flower Capital ( AFCG ), Charlotte’s Web ( CWBHF ), and Chicago Atlantic BDC ( LIEN ) rejoin the index.

We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April 2025, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indices that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain, the US Hemp Operator Index, the Auxiliary Hemp Index, and the Canadian Hemp LP Index.

American Hemp Operator Index

The ACOI sank in January, falling 12.5% ​​to 11.53, and fell further in February, falling 5.8% to 10.87. In March, it decreased by 5.5%, reaching 10.27. In 2025, it increased by 57.7% to 13.18, and in 2026, it decreased by 22.1%. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) fell 8.5% in March and 24.8% in 2026.

The strongest stock in March was Verano, up 0.9%. The weakest, Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ), fell 12.4%.

In April, the index will have the same seven members.

Auxiliary cannabis index

Ancillary commodities lost 6.5% in March as the index fell to 9.20. The index decreased by 19.5% in 2025, reaching 11.09, and this year it decreased by 17.0%.

The strongest stock in March was (NASDAQ: AFCG ), which rose 23.7%. The weakest, Turning Point Brands, fell by 36.7%.

In March, the index will have eight members following the reorganization of Chicago Atlantic BDC.

Canadian Hemp LP Index

Canadian LPs fell 7.5% in March as the index fell to 51.49. In 2025, the index increased by 17.8%, reaching 59.01, and in 2026, it decreased by 12.7%.

Canada’s strongest LP in March was Decibel Cannabis (TSXV: DB ), up 28.6%. Simply Insoluble Concentrates (TSXV: HASH ) was the weakest, falling 57.7%.

In April, the index will have eleven members as MTL Cannabis has been acquired and Simply Solventless Concentrates is no longer eligible due to its price.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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