You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Hemp stocks have retreated significantly since the beginning of this month and are now down in October. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which closed at 7.03, was down 8.5% in October. Annual growth is only 2.2%. After four consecutive declines in four years, the market is close to extending its losing streak.
MSOS closed at 4.44, a 1.5% discount to its NAV, and is down 7.3% in October, but up 16.5% year to date. Last week it was at 5.40, up 41.7% from the previous day and up 12.7% in October when I warned about upcoming financial statements. I looked at the monthly returns of the 9 MSOs in the American Hemp Operator Index and they ranged from +4.4% to +35.8% over that time. Now they are lower, with six of them recording losses.
Looking at the 7 largest MSOS positions, all are above 5%, with two, Curaleaf and Trulieve, above 21%, the best performer being Verano at 7.7% in October. The three largest positions were all down: Curaleaf, down 3.9%, Trulieve, down 8.8%, and Green Thumb Industries, down 9.9%.
The three largest positions to date are very different, with one double-digit decrease and two significant increases;
Looking at the other four majors, which range in size from 5.6% to 7.7%, they are all double-digit gainers;
Glass house brands: +31.0%
TerrAscend: +23.6%
Cresco Labs: +21.5%
Verano Holdings: +19.7%
These 7 largest MSOS positions are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, albeit with lower percentages for some and lower for all. While they mostly rallied in 2025, all have declined since last November’s election. As I discussed in last week’s newsletter, the current financial situation is not exciting at all. What drives them? A possible realignment which, if it happens, could eliminate 280E taxation.
There’s more to the cannabis sector than just MSOs, some of which have surged since late June. The index currently has members from five other subsectors, but only one from Biotech, only one from THC Beverage and only one from Canadian Retailers. MSOs make up 26.1% of the index, which is lower than Ancillaries at 39.1% and higher than Canadian LPs at 23.8%. I actually like the affiliate programs and still recommend them to investors look at hemp REITswhich I last discussed here on 8/14.
I was a big fan of Canadian LPs earlier this year, but my exposure in my 420 Investor model portfolio is only two names and slightly lower than index exposure. Canopy Growth, which I’ve disliked for a while, is one of the Canadian LPs in the index that I avoid. It is down 51.8% in 2025, but is up 28.2% since late July and 59.0% since April 8, its all-time closing low. I expect this one to make a new all-time low. The other Canadian LP I’m concerned about is Tilray Brands, which is up 9.0% year-to-date but is very expensive in my opinion. It has quadrupled from its all-time low four months ago. I think it could be pulled back dramatically.
Looking at all 28 members of the Global Hemp Stock Index, returns averaged 11.7% year-to-date, well ahead of the benchmark. The average return was 7.0%, also before the index return.
As I said above, the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 2.2% year-to-date, which is worse than the return of cash. Stocks outside the sector have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning nearly 15% this year. Hemp stocks could come under pressure if stocks pull back again. I have also shared some other reasons like 280E taxation does not end. The hemp sector lacks institutional buy-in and strong growth. It has recently been promoted by traders, but it may not end 2025 well. Be careful.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Fifteen weeks ago we pointed it out few investors care about Vireo Growthand it remains so. Vireo Growth (VREOF) has declined significantly in 2026 and is near its lows. Here is what it and MSOS have done since the 2024 election.
Vireo did a reverse split on June 5, issuing 1 new share for every 30 shares previously outstanding. Dividing the current price by 30 allows investors to judge the performance of equity sales at the end of 2024. It was a big capital raise when the company sold shares at $0.625 for $81 million in proceeds. The current price of $9.44 is well below this level.
The company, as we discussed before, has done so much. Since that last article, it announced the acquisition of Planet 13 (PLNH) and announced that it is acquiring certain assets of The Cannabist Company. It also shut down a Pennsylvania dispensary, PhytoNatural, its entry into the state. In June, it completed the purchase of Bridgewell Agribusiness, expanding its ancillary operations and announced dispensary acquisitions in Maryland and Nevada. It also agreed to buy C21 Investments (CXXIF).
In addition to the capital it recently raised in 2024, Vireo has relied on Chicago Atlantic (REFI), which will soon merge with Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN). Vireo’s CEO joined from Chicago Atlantic in late 2024.
So Vireo continues to do a lot of M&A, both in private and public companies. Investors continue to be impressed, in my opinion. The average trading value in VREOF for the last month was only 13 thousand shares per day. Stocks are down, and so are acquired companies.
Recent investors aren’t happy, but Vireo Growth’s pool of disgruntled owners runs very deep, as the company issued a lot of stock as part of its M&A. Perhaps more importantly, Chicago Atlantic’s stock is collapsing.
This further decline in Vireo Growth is a big red flag for hemp stocks.
Sincerely,
Alan:
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.
Michigan cannabis service provider
On August 17, Common C Holdings, LP’s commercial specialty hemp processing facility will be auctioned at 607 Wildwood Avenue in Jackson, Michigan and online at 11:00 a.m. ET. Learn more Of the secured party’s sale of all assets of this cultivation equipment.
Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.
New Cannabis Ventures has not published any curated articles or exclusive news.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded hemp industry stocks. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Many more cannabis companies reported Q1 financials this week. While NCV did not run any of those press releases, all data has been updated in the New Cannabis Ventures Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker. The largest companies reporting in US dollars all reported, and the eleven companies that reported for the Q1 ended in March (excluding Tilray Brands, which is due to report its Q4 later this month) saw an average year-over-year revenue increase of 31% in their cannabis businesses.
Excluding Vireo Growth, that average comes to -0.7%, which is lower, especially after accounting for inflation, and a sign of continued challenges for the hemp industry. Speaking of Vireo, I’ve pointed out how investors didn’t care, and they still don’t. An average of just 375,000 shares traded per day over the past month, and the stock, which closed at $0.415, continues to trade off the level of its late 2024 capital raise and the price at which the company issued shares to make multiple acquisitions.
April was a big month for hemp stocks, but prices fell in May. The NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index rose 8.8% to 5.70 in April, but fell 2.8% to 5.54 in May. The year-to-year change of this index, which now covers 23 stocks, was -15.9%. Since its peak in early 2021, the GCSI is down 94%. Many are excited about the medical cannabis realignment that took place in April, although it remains unclear whether cannabis will be completely overhauled. The Department of Justice will hold hearings in late June to discuss adult-use cannabis, and it could be. If so, 280E tax would be removed, and this would be very good. I’ve written a lot about this since late 2022 when I highlighted it The potential end of 280E as a major catalyst.
The investor base in cannabis stocks has shrunk due to capital losses and fewer people interested in the sector. Institutions were more interested in high prices and maybe they would enter the field. 280E remains a big story, and not only is it being delayed by the limited realignment that’s already been completed, it’s unclear how unpaid taxes from the last few years will be treated.
NCV has stopped publishing most cannabis news, although we continue to update the financial calendar as well as the earnings rankings. After more than 10 years with NCV and more than a dozen years with 420 Investor, I am in the process of moving on. This is probably the last weekly newsletter. I’ve appreciated sharing the news and my views here, and I want to wish everyone the best. Hopefully, 280E taxation will be fully completed and the bear market that began in early 2021 for the hemp sector will be over.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Michigan April hemp sale decreased compared to a year ago, as they increased sequentially by 1.2%. At $258.6 million, sales decreased by 4.3 percent compared to last year.
Michigan’s cannabis regulatory agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 24.1% year-over-year to $0.4 million, down 5.6% sequentially, and adult-use sales down 4.3% year-over-year to $255.5 million, despite a one-day increase of 1.2% in March.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For Adults – UseMedical
As supply continues to expand, adult flower prices have fallen sharply, although the decline is slowing. April’s average price of $945 per pound fell 4.2% sequentially to just above December’s record low and down 5.1% from a year ago.
Michigan hemp sales are expected to grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. billion In 2026, Michigan cannabis sales decreased by 5.9%.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El