You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Hemp stocks have retreated significantly since the beginning of this month and are now down in October. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which closed at 7.03, was down 8.5% in October. Annual growth is only 2.2%. After four consecutive declines in four years, the market is close to extending its losing streak.
MSOS closed at 4.44, a 1.5% discount to its NAV, and is down 7.3% in October, but up 16.5% year to date. Last week it was at 5.40, up 41.7% from the previous day and up 12.7% in October when I warned about upcoming financial statements. I looked at the monthly returns of the 9 MSOs in the American Hemp Operator Index and they ranged from +4.4% to +35.8% over that time. Now they are lower, with six of them recording losses.
Looking at the 7 largest MSOS positions, all are above 5%, with two, Curaleaf and Trulieve, above 21%, the best performer being Verano at 7.7% in October. The three largest positions were all down: Curaleaf, down 3.9%, Trulieve, down 8.8%, and Green Thumb Industries, down 9.9%.
The three largest positions to date are very different, with one double-digit decrease and two significant increases;
Looking at the other four majors, which range in size from 5.6% to 7.7%, they are all double-digit gainers;
Glass house brands: +31.0%
TerrAscend: +23.6%
Cresco Labs: +21.5%
Verano Holdings: +19.7%
These 7 largest MSOS positions are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, albeit with lower percentages for some and lower for all. While they mostly rallied in 2025, all have declined since last November’s election. As I discussed in last week’s newsletter, the current financial situation is not exciting at all. What drives them? A possible realignment which, if it happens, could eliminate 280E taxation.
There’s more to the cannabis sector than just MSOs, some of which have surged since late June. The index currently has members from five other subsectors, but only one from Biotech, only one from THC Beverage and only one from Canadian Retailers. MSOs make up 26.1% of the index, which is lower than Ancillaries at 39.1% and higher than Canadian LPs at 23.8%. I actually like the affiliate programs and still recommend them to investors look at hemp REITswhich I last discussed here on 8/14.
I was a big fan of Canadian LPs earlier this year, but my exposure in my 420 Investor model portfolio is only two names and slightly lower than index exposure. Canopy Growth, which I’ve disliked for a while, is one of the Canadian LPs in the index that I avoid. It is down 51.8% in 2025, but is up 28.2% since late July and 59.0% since April 8, its all-time closing low. I expect this one to make a new all-time low. The other Canadian LP I’m concerned about is Tilray Brands, which is up 9.0% year-to-date but is very expensive in my opinion. It has quadrupled from its all-time low four months ago. I think it could be pulled back dramatically.
Looking at all 28 members of the Global Hemp Stock Index, returns averaged 11.7% year-to-date, well ahead of the benchmark. The average return was 7.0%, also before the index return.
As I said above, the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 2.2% year-to-date, which is worse than the return of cash. Stocks outside the sector have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning nearly 15% this year. Hemp stocks could come under pressure if stocks pull back again. I have also shared some other reasons like 280E taxation does not end. The hemp sector lacks institutional buy-in and strong growth. It has recently been promoted by traders, but it may not end 2025 well. Be careful.
Sincerely,
Alan:
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
New Cannabis Ventures offers readers this easy-to-read exclusive summary of BDSA’s 15-state monthly cannabis sales data.
In January, cannabis sales decreased sequentially by 3.1%. In this review, we break down the results by state, starting with the western markets and then ending with the eastern markets. Overall, the BDSA estimates sales in 15 markets totaled $2.07 billion in January, up 4.6 percent from a year earlier. BDSA updated its Illinois numbers after the state recently changed the way it counts sales.
Western markets
BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. In December, annual growth was negative in 4 states. Growth in each of these states fell in succession.
Eastern markets
BDSA provides coverage for Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Annual growth in December ranged from -3.1% in Missouri to +37.6% in New York. Ohio began using adults in August, spurring growth. Note that Florida and Pennsylvania are medical markets only. On a daily basis, sequential gains declined in eight markets. Annual growth was negative in both markets and sharp in both states. We warned of a potential slowdown in Florida despite strong dispensary and unit volume growth due to competitive pressure.
For readers interested in a deeper look hemp markets in these fifteen states and more, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and product details, longer history and segmentation by product attributes, learn how BDSA Solutions can give you access to actionable data and analytics.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Illinois released sales figures for two months on Friday. The last time it released the data in November, the state did a major review of historical sales after a long delay, and it was updated to October. The previous report was for Cannabis for adults in May. The November document explained that the lack of data was due to the Metrc transition. “Sales tracking features in Metrc help retailers more accurately and reliably report actual sales, including all discounts and promotions at checkout. A careful review of past data shows that some initial discount prices were collected in previous months.” Here is the updated data until the end of 2025.
Statewide adult cannabis sales rose 5.6% sequentially to $116.6 million in December, up 2.2% on the day. Year-on-year growth was -23.9%, a slight improvement from November’s -26.1% growth. Here is a chart of adult sales over time:
After growing 106% in 2021, 13% in 2022 and 5% in 2023, annual sales for adults are set to grow 5.4% to $1.72 billion in 2024. In 2025, they decreased by 12.5% to $1.51 billion, which was lower than the total in 2022.
There hasn’t been an update from the state on medical cannabis in a while. The state exempts the sale separately from its medical plan, and April issue showed that sales fell 1.6% sequentially to $19.7 million, down 13.2% year over year.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
This week, Scotts Miracle-Gro, the largest stock in the Global Hemp Stock Index by market capitalization, announced that it has found a buyer for its Hawthorne Gardening Company business in Vireo Growth. This news first appeared in an online article published by the Wall Street Journaland then Vireo issued a press release like Scotts Miracle-Gro, which also reported in its fiscal 1st quarter.
The deal is not a done deal. Vireo called it a “non-binding memorandum of understanding” but did not discuss the terms of the deal or when it might close. Scotts Miracle-Gro, which had already told investors it was working on this type of deal, did not disclose Hawthorne’s financial results for the 1st quarter. Analysts didn’t really ask any questions about it during the conference. The WSJ article said Vireo is giving Scotts Miracle-Gro 13% of its stock in return, but neither company has disclosed that in their press releases or SEC filings.
I include SMG in my 420 Investor Focus List, but Vireo is not a member of that group. Vireo also failed to qualify for the Global Cannabis Stock Index due to its low trading volumes. As I detailed five weeks ago, The Vireo has grown very large in terms of revenue and its geographic focus. The stock was then at $0.625 and is now lower, closing at $0.55. On Christmas Eve, the decline was 12.0%, while the MSOS fell 10.1%.
Maybe investors are interested in this deal and I’m not. First, it’s not a done deal. Second, to purchase Hawthorne, the investor must assume 280E taxation risk. Third, the price seems high, as 13% of the company is worth about $75 million. Fourth, it’s not clear to me that marrying a hemp operator with a subsidiary makes sense as I recall TILT Holdings.
I have followed Hawthorne Gardening for a long time and am glad that CEO Hagedorn and his team have gone ahead and purchased it and expanded it. The hemp industry has been struggling for about five years, and the big drop in Hawthorne Gardening’s revenue is not SMG’s fault in my opinion. It’s not clear to me how Vireo Growth will make it a better action, but I hope it has a good plan.
I continue to believe that investors should pay close attention to what is happening with shares in Vireo. This potential acquisition was not something that was discussed by analysts or investors, but today’s volume of 277 thousand shares was very low. Once again, Vireo, thanks to its aggressive M&A activity, has become the 7th largest MSO in the NCV Revenue Tracker. It remains very troubling to me that stocks are not earning a lot of interest.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
