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Cannabis Stocks Could Get Crushed Further – New Cannabis Ventures

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Tilray Is a Dangerous Stock – New Cannabis Ventures

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Hemp stocks have retreated significantly since the beginning of this month and are now down in October. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which closed at 7.03, was down 8.5% in October. Annual growth is only 2.2%. After four consecutive declines in four years, the market is close to extending its losing streak.

MSOS closed at 4.44, a 1.5% discount to its NAV, and is down 7.3% in October, but up 16.5% year to date. Last week it was at 5.40, up 41.7% from the previous day and up 12.7% in October when I warned about upcoming financial statements. I looked at the monthly returns of the 9 MSOs in the American Hemp Operator Index and they ranged from +4.4% to +35.8% over that time. Now they are lower, with six of them recording losses.

Looking at the 7 largest MSOS positions, all are above 5%, with two, Curaleaf and Trulieve, above 21%, the best performer being Verano at 7.7% in October. The three largest positions were all down: Curaleaf, down 3.9%, Trulieve, down 8.8%, and Green Thumb Industries, down 9.9%.

The three largest positions to date are very different, with one double-digit decrease and two significant increases;

Looking at the other four majors, which range in size from 5.6% to 7.7%, they are all double-digit gainers;

  • Glass house brands: +31.0%
  • TerrAscend: +23.6%
  • Cresco Labs: +21.5%
  • Verano Holdings: +19.7%

These 7 largest MSOS positions are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, albeit with lower percentages for some and lower for all. While they mostly rallied in 2025, all have declined since last November’s election. As I discussed in last week’s newsletter, the current financial situation is not exciting at all. What drives them? A possible realignment which, if it happens, could eliminate 280E taxation.

There’s more to the cannabis sector than just MSOs, some of which have surged since late June. The index currently has members from five other subsectors, but only one from Biotech, only one from THC Beverage and only one from Canadian Retailers. MSOs make up 26.1% of the index, which is lower than Ancillaries at 39.1% and higher than Canadian LPs at 23.8%. I actually like the affiliate programs and still recommend them to investors look at hemp REITswhich I last discussed here on 8/14.

I was a big fan of Canadian LPs earlier this year, but my exposure in my 420 Investor model portfolio is only two names and slightly lower than index exposure. Canopy Growth, which I’ve disliked for a while, is one of the Canadian LPs in the index that I avoid. It is down 51.8% in 2025, but is up 28.2% since late July and 59.0% since April 8, its all-time closing low. I expect this one to make a new all-time low. The other Canadian LP I’m concerned about is Tilray Brands, which is up 9.0% year-to-date but is very expensive in my opinion. It has quadrupled from its all-time low four months ago. I think it could be pulled back dramatically.

Looking at all 28 members of the Global Hemp Stock Index, returns averaged 11.7% year-to-date, well ahead of the benchmark. The average return was 7.0%, also before the index return.

As I said above, the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 2.2% year-to-date, which is worse than the return of cash. Stocks outside the sector have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning nearly 15% this year. Hemp stocks could come under pressure if stocks pull back again. I have also shared some other reasons like 280E taxation does not end. The hemp sector lacks institutional buy-in and strong growth. It has recently been promoted by traders, but it may not end 2025 well. Be careful.

Sincerely,

Alan:


New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

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Ascend Q3 Revenue Drops 12% – New Cannabis Ventures

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Ascend Q3 Revenue Drops 12% – New Cannabis Ventures

AWH Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

  • Delivered Q3 2025 net income of $124.7 million
  • Achieved Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA¹ of $31.1 million, representing a margin of 24.9%
  • Focused margin optimization drove sequential adjusted gross margin¹ up 300 basis points to 46.4%
  • Driven strategic market concentration with seven new stores added year-over-year, expanding nationwide footprint to 46 locations²

NEW YORK, November 10, 2025. /PRNewswire/ – Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (“AWH”, “Ascend” or the “Company”) (CSE: AAWH.U) (OTCQX: AAWH), a leading, diversified, vertically integrated cannabis operator and consumer packaged goods company, today reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (“3 2025”). Financial results are presented in accordance with US generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and all currencies are in US dollars.

Business Highlights

  • Advanced consolidation strategy by adding seven strategically located retail stores to date, increasing market depth and expanding total footprint to 46 locations nationwide, including partners.
  • Later in the quarter, the Company received approval from the New Jersey Cannabis Regulatory Commission for its newest store in Little Falls. This location marks Ascend’s first partner dispensary in New Jersey. The company is one of only six operators approved under Assembly Bill A4151, which aims to expand investment opportunities for cannabis businesses with diverse ownership.
  • A strong retail development pipeline of 13 additional stores allows the Company to reach its goal of 60 locations2 over the next 12 months, which has a target launch date of late 2024 and is subject to regulatory approvals and timelines.
  • Executed CPG-driven growth initiatives and customer-centric innovations across a range of product launches including;
    • Expanding the Effin’ product line with the introduction of effects-based vapors offered in 1g full-flavor cartridges in five SKUs: Zen, Chillin’, Do It!, Deep Sleep and Love. The new vapes contain expertly crafted combinations of THC and minor cannabinoids and are available in Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey. An all-in-one single-use format is slated to launch in the coming weeks.
    • Introducing Effin’s new effects-based chewing gum, including five unique flavors and formulations such as Relief (Sour Acai), Zen (Peach & Honey), Showtime (Pina Colada), Deep Sleep (Dark Cherry) and Create (Strawberry Tequila). Select offers available in Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey.
    • High Wired’s infused flower and pre-rolls launched in September 2025 in New Jersey, Illinois and Massachusetts. after a very successful initial debut in the second quarter. According to the BDSA, High Wired is the number two brand of infused flowers in all three states.
    • Ozone Reserve and Simply Herb are slated to debut in Ohio following form factor approval by the state in August 2025.
    • As of the end of Q3 2025, the Company has launched 420 SKUs and remains on track to launch nearly 550 SKUs throughout the year.
    • In early Q4 2025, such as Mango Sticky Rice and Fruit Lagoon in Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey, the release of Simply Herb’s 1g disposable vapes in seven unique flavors.
  • Launched a fully integrated e-commerce ecosystem in line with AWH’s customer-first focus, including a redesigned Dutchie-based shopping platform, an AI-powered personalization app, Ascend Pay payment functionality, and an enhanced Ascenders Club loyalty program with multi-tiered, bonus and exclusive bonuses.
  • Strengthened capital position with the closing of a $9.3 million financing by CF Bank through a mortgage loan secured by our Ohio real estate assets (the “Ohio Mortgage Loan”). The Ohio mortgage carries a competitive interest rate of 8.5% per annum and matures in September 2030.
  • AWH has repurchased approximately 1.0 million shares of Class A common stock (the “Common Stock”) in the open market during the third quarter of 2025 under the common issuer bid (“NCIB”) stock purchase program (the “Purchase Program”).
    • Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the Company has repurchased and retired a total of approximately 15 million shares at an average price of $0.30 per share3. Share repurchases under the repurchase program are expected to continue in accordance with NCIB’s terms and applicable regulatory limits.

Financial highlights for Q3 2025

  • Total net revenue was $124.7 million, compared to $127.3 million in the second quarter of 2025 (“Q2 2025”).
    • Retail revenue was $83.8 million, down 3.1% sequentially.
    • Wholesale revenue increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter to $41.0 million.
  • Adjusted gross profit¹ was $57.8 million, compared to $55.3 million in the second quarter of 2025.
  • Net loss was $25.8 million, compared to $24.4 million in Q2 2025.
  • Adjusted EBITDA1 in 2025 for the third quarter was $31.1 million, representing a 24.9% margin¹.
    • Quarter-over-quarter, adjusted EBITDA¹ increased 8.9% and adjusted EBITDA margin¹ increased 250 basis points.
  • As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $87.3 million and net debt 4 was $281.8 million.

Original press release

Published by NCV Newswire

NCV Newswire

New Cannabis Ventures’ NCV Newswire aims to gather high-quality content and information about leading cannabis companies to help our readers filter through the noise and stay on top of the most important cannabis business news. The NCV Newswire is edited by an editor and is not, however, automated. Got a secret news tip? Get in touch.

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Michigan Cannabis Sales Bounced a Bit in October – New Cannabis Ventures

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Michigan Cannabis Sales Bounced a Bit in October – New Cannabis Ventures

Michigan hemp sales for the month of October down from a year ago as they rose 6.5% sequentially, which was +3.1% on a daily basis. Sales of $267.8 million decreased by 0.3 percent compared to last year.

The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 57.7% year-over-year to $0.4 million, down 0.7% sequentially, and adult-use sales down 0.1% year-over-year to $250.9 million, up 6.6% sequentially.

The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;

For adults
For adults
Medical
Medical

As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. The average price of $991 a pound in October fell 2.0% sequentially to near a new record low and fell 16.3% from a year earlier.

Michigan hemp sales will grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. In 2024, they increased by 7.6% to $3.29 billion. expand further as supply becomes more available and as distribution expands.

NCV Newswire

New Cannabis Ventures’ NCV Newswire aims to gather high-quality content and information about leading cannabis companies to help our readers filter through the noise and stay on top of the most important cannabis business news. The NCV Newswire is edited by an editor and is not, however, automated. Got a secret news tip? Get in touch.

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Trulieve Q3 Revenue Rises 1% – New Cannabis Ventures

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Trulieve Q3 Revenue Rises 1% – New Cannabis Ventures

Trulieve reports Q3 2025 results showing operating discipline and cash flow strength
  • Third quarter revenue was $288 million, a 59% gross margin
  • Year-to-date cash flow from operations of $214 million and free cash flow of $173 million*
  • More than 12.5 million branded products were sold in the third quarter, up 7 percent from last year.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla., Nov. 5, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (CSE: TRUL) (OTCQX: TCNNF) (“Trulieve” or “The Company”), the leading and most profitable cannabis company in the United States, today announced results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Numbers may not add up perfectly due to rounding.

Q3 2025 Financial and Operating Highlights*

  • Revenue was $288 million, 94% of which came from retail sales.
  • Achieved a gross margin of 59%, with GAAP gross profit of $170 million.
  • A net loss attributable to common stockholders of $27 million was reported. Adjusted net loss of $12 million* excludes non-recurring charges, asset impairments, disposals and discontinued operations.
  • Achieved adjusted EBITDA of $103 million*, or 36% of revenue, up 7% year over year.
  • Cash flow from operations of $77 million and free cash flow of $64 million*.
  • Cash at the end of the quarter was $458 million.
  • Added Chief Financial Officer Ian Reese to the management team and appointed Matthew Foulston to the Board of Directors.
  • Rewards Program members reached 820,000 members as of September 30, 2025. Loyalty members accounted for 77% of transactions during the third quarter.
  • The new Roll One Clutch All In One vapes have been launched in Florida and are on sale within two weeks.
  • Expanded distribution of Onward premium THC beverages in Florida and Illinois, launched new Upward THC energy drinks and introduced five new 10 mg flavors.
  • Opened one dispensary in Cincinnati, Ohio and moved one dispensary to Bisbee, Arizona.

*See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for additional information and reconciliations to GAAP for all non-GAAP measures.

Recent developments

  • Announced the scheduled redemption of $368 million of senior secured notes due 2026.
  • A new mobile app serving Florida customers has been launched, enabling patients to browse and reserve products, view promotions and check reward status in a seamless digital experience.
  • There are currently 232 retail dispensaries and more than four million square feet of processing and processing capacity in the United States.

Management Commentary

“Our 2025 strategic plan is delivering results, with clear progress in reform, customers, distribution and branded products,” said Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers. “Remarkable flexibility and strong cash generation in our core business continue to set us apart in a dynamic market.”

Financial milestones

Original press release

Published by NCV Newswire

NCV Newswire

NCV Newswire by New Cannabis Ventures aims to gather high-quality content and information about leading cannabis companies to help our readers filter through the noise and stay on top of the most important cannabis business news. The NCV Newswire is edited by an editor and is not, however, automated. Got a secret news tip? Get in touch.

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