You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

The hemp industry ended 2025 with a slight decline. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which started at 100 at the end of 2012, has fallen 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th consecutive annual decline.

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS ) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it’s down a lot since late 2020 when it was at $36.50. The 5-year yield at $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 85.2 percent, just shy of a recession.

So far in 2026, the global hemp stock index is unchanged. MSOS, which rose in December, fell 3.0% to $4.58. After last year’s big jump, investors probably aren’t too worried just yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t have, because the realignment is still in progress, and if it passes, it’s very incremental because of the elimination 280E tax. Of course, it remains to be seen whether a realignment will actually happen, and if so, when it will happen.

Investors or traders have rushed to MSOS over the past few years in hopes of a reshuffle. The lift in late December had massive volume, surpassing the volume in August when rumors of a possible realignment under Trump first surfaced. It was also heavier than when the MSOS fell after the last election in 2024. So far in 2026, volume has been fairly low, as seen in this six-month chart:

MSOS is still trading above the 12/11 price, as are most of its stocks. It’s also trading up more than 100% from near its all-time low of $2 set last year. To me, while the stock has fallen well from its recent peak, down 36.8% from its 12/18 intraday high, it looks like it could continue to decline. The recent downturn has not spurred buyers. In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I have very little exposure to MSOs compared to the Global Hemp Stock Index, just 6.6% in both MSOs compared to 25.9%.

The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I’ve discussed before: Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) at 67.7% MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a major debt challengeso far in 2026, it has fallen by 1.4% and moved from the second largest position to the third. Trulieve, the current largest holding, fell 5.6%, while GTI, now the second largest, rose 2.0%. MSOS has not purchased or sold shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.

I have watched MSOS since its day 1 which was in late 2020. Although I was and continue to be highly critical of the way it was run, I commended them for their early efforts. Unfortunately, there are no cannabis investment funds, including ETFs, that come close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share count dramatically over the past year, despite a recent small drawdown. Investors should understand that if it hits redemptions, it could put pressure on the MSO subsector and the price of MSOS.

It is very possible that hemp will be reclassified with the end of 280E taxation. It is also possible that large MSOs will not have to pay past 280E taxes that they did not pay. If 280E goes away and the previous liabilities go away, it will be very positive for MSOs and it will likely eliminate potential MSOS repayments. Of course, if 280E holds, traders stacked in MSOS will have trouble finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of the 280E.

I continue to recommend that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times, as well as recently, that hemp REITs make more senseand I have a lot of exposure to both of them in my modeling portfolio. There are other supporting names that should have upside if the 280E goes away for their customers, but less downside if it stays. Canadian LPs might also make sense. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to suggest that it will.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Growth in cannabis sales was slow in December

Florida’s medical cannabis market is shrinking

Capital increase

Umbrella growth recapitalizes the balance sheet

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

Each week, the Florida Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), part of the state Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including the number of active patients, the number of qualified physicians, new dispensary approvals and updates for each operator. That data includes the number of weekly dispensaries and unit sales. This is the sixteenth New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May 2024, offering readers be careful with florida. This article is based on update provided on 01/02 by the state for the week ending 01/01. Readers interested in further data may visit OMMU update page.

Patient growth has slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in November, and year-over-year patient growth fell to 4.5%, down from 8.4% at the end of May a year ago. The growth rate picked up slightly from March, when it fell to just 3.0%, to 5.5% at the end of October. Year-on-year growth slowed again and it fell last week, ending 01/01 at 3.9%. It has dropped a lot.

Although the number of patients is still increasing, the increase is very low and has decreased significantly from just a few years ago. 930 thousand patients make up 4% of the population of the state. The number of cases was declining before the potential legalization of adult use, but has recently increased slightly to a new high;

The year 2024 ended with about 895 thousand patients, and after that the increase was 3.9%. The annual rate was higher than the 3.5% increase in 2024, which was affected by the expected increase in adult cannabis, but was well below the 11.0% increase in 2023.

Over the years, some program improvements have helped Florida residents get excited about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edible products. Then, the post-epidemic population boom helped increase the number of patients. Outpatient clinics have increased, reaching 738 from 702 a year ago. That’s a 5.1% increase, slightly faster than the 3.9% increase in medical cannabis patients since then.

Unit growth remains very strong

In the last week, sales of medical cannabis products with THC increased by 23.7% compared to a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 17.7% from the week ending 01/02/25. Unit volume growth remains higher than revenue and patient gains. There are more stores and the volume of units is increasing.

We shared that Florida’s income grew just 1.4% from a year ago in April 2024, BDSA estimates. This was a record low at the time, but all historical data was revised by the BDSA for September. April 2024 growth is now reported at -40.8%, which seems a long way off. We contacted BDSA and they confirmed this revenue estimate as the 2021-2025 total is now much lower. Looking at revised 2025 data, Florida sales growth as projected by the BDSA has been volatile, with month-over-year growth ranging from -6.8% (April) to +17.2% (June). It increased by 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2024, and it decreased by 3.4% in December. Patient growth and dispensary growth led to unit growth, but overall sales were down year-over-year.

Florida MSOs are weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 about large MSOs in Florida because investors seemed overly bullish. The entire cannabis market has been in turmoil since then, and the entire group of IPOs is down sharply, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four Florida leaders are down significantly though 10/09/25, especially AYR Wellness, which has been betting big on its operations in the state;

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, at 6.68 last night, is down 38.3% since 01/05, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has eleven members and closed at 12.74, is down 38,015/5%. Three of Florida’s 4 dropped more than both. MSOS, which has Curaleaf and Trulieve currently 46.0% of the ETF, is down 53.7% since 5/16/24 to $4.53 (below $4.57 NAV). Planet 13, an acquisition that made them a major player in Florida, dropped 67.3%, better than two of Florida’s four leaders.

Fourteen months ago, many expected Florida to legalize cannabis for adults, and operators were expanding their dispensaries. Although a majority of Florida voters approved adult use, the measure failed to receive the 60% required to change the law. There were more dispensaries in 2025, due in part to the completion of plans that were in place before adult-use legalization failed. The market is struggling with slow patient growth, dispensary growth and competitive issues (like sales of cannabis-derived THC). The result was flat revenue despite strong unit growth.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters failed to pass an adult legalization ballot initiative, and they likely won’t be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and becoming more competitive. Florida will probably legalize it for adult use in 2026, but that’s a long time away. Investors, in our view, should be wary of Florida’s major operators, especially the two that are in business through 2025.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

On January 5, 2026 at 3:28 pm