Each week, the Florida Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), part of the state Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including the number of active patients, the number of qualified physicians, new dispensary approvals and updates for each operator. That data includes the number of weekly dispensaries and unit sales. This is the fifteenth New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May 2024, offering readers be careful with florida. This article is based on update provided 12/05 by the state for the week ending 12/04. Readers interested in further data may visit OMMU update page.

Patient growth has slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in October, and year-over-year patient growth fell to 4.6%, down from 8.4% at the end of May a year ago. The growth rate picked up slightly from March, when it fell to just 3.0%, to 5.5% at the end of October. Annual growth has slowed again and it fell last week, ending 12/04 at 4.5%. It has dropped a lot.

Although the number of patients is still increasing, the increase is very low and has decreased significantly from just a few years ago. 930 thousand patients make up 4% of the population of the state. The number of cases was declining before the potential legalization of adult use, but has recently increased slightly to a new high;

2024 ended with about 895,000 patients, and the growth since then was 4.0%. This works out to 4.3% annual growth, which is better than the 3.5% growth in 2024, but well below the 11.0% growth in 2023.

Over the years, some program improvements have helped Florida residents get excited about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edible products. Then, the post-epidemic population boom helped increase the number of patients. Outpatient clinics have increased, reaching 735 from 699 a year ago. That’s a 5.2% increase, slightly faster than the 4.5% increase in medical cannabis patients since then. Looking at the changes since the end of 2024, outpatient clinics that are open increased by 4.7%, while the number of patients increased by about 3.9%.

Unit growth remains very strong

In the last week, unit sales of medical cannabis products with THC were up 15.9% from a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 12.8% from the week ending 12/05/24. Unit volume growth remains higher than revenue and patient gains. There are more stores and the volume of units is increasing.

We shared that Florida’s income grew just 1.4% from a year ago in April 2024, BDSA estimates. This was a record low at the time, but all historical data was revised by the BDSA for September. April 2024 growth is now reported at -40.8%, which seems a long way off. We contacted BDSA and they confirmed this revenue estimate as the 2021-2025 total is now much lower. Looking at revised 2025 data, Florida sales growth as projected by the BDSA has been volatile, with month-over-year growth ranging from -6.8% (April) to +17.2% (June). It increased by 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2024, and it decreased by 2.6% in November. Patient growth and dispensary growth led to unit growth, but overall sales were down year-over-year.

Florida MSOs are weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 about large MSOs in Florida because investors seemed overly bullish. The entire cannabis market has been in turmoil since then, and the entire group of IPOs is down sharply, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four Florida leaders are down significantly though 10/09/25, especially AYR Wellness, which has been betting big on its operations in the state;

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index last night at 6.12, is down 43.5% since 12/05, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has eight members and closed at 10.15, is down 51.0%. All of Florida’s 4 dropped more than both. MSOS, which has Curaleaf and Trulieve currently 48.7% of the ETF, is down 60.2% since 5/16/24. Planet 13, an acquisition that made them a major player in Florida, dropped 70.8%, better than two of Florida’s four leaders.

Thirteen months ago, many expected Florida to legalize cannabis for adults, and operators were expanding the number of dispensaries. Although a majority of Florida voters approved adult use, the measure failed to receive the 60% required to change the law. There were more dispensaries in 2025, in part due to the completion of plans that were in place before adult-use legalization failed. The market is struggling with slow patient growth, dispensary growth and competitive issues (like sales of cannabis-derived THC). The result was flat revenue despite strong unit growth.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters failed to pass an adult legalization ballot initiative, and they likely won’t be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and becoming more competitive. Florida will probably legalize it for adult use in 2026, but that’s a long time away. Investors, in our view, should be wary of Florida’s major operators, especially the two that are in business through 2025.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

There hasn’t been much cannabis news this week, but what we did learn was kind of surprising. Cannabist, which sold one of its Virginia businesses to Verano for $90 million in 2024, announced the sale of its remaining Virginia assets to Curaleaf. Cannabist’s press release disclosed the price, while Curaleaf did not. Cannabist rallied and sold off and is now down 13.9% this week and down 39.9% year to date. The company is extremely difficult, in my opinion, and doesn’t really hold much value for investors given its low market cap and small trading volumes. Creditors are the ones who care.

Curaleaf, on the other hand, rallied on Wednesday after pulling back on Tuesday after announcing a pending $110 million buyout. It’s up 6.9% this week and is set to rise 56.4% in 2025. This is much better than the Global Hemp Stock Index, which is down 11.5% year-to-date at 6.09. MSOS, which carries most of Curaleaf, is down 3.2% in 2025.

I downgraded Curaleaf to Strong Sell at Seeking Alpha in April when it was $0.98 and yesterday it closed at $2.44. I remain very bearish on stocks and today I share an updated outlook. The main problems I see are that the valuation is too high relative to peers, the company has huge debt and MSOS has a lot.

Curaleaf’s rating is high compared to peers

While the current value of 7.8X projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 may seem low, it is a large premium to its peers;

Curaleaf outperformed the major MSOs in 2025, driving this high relative valuation;

Curaleaf’s balance sheet is poor

The balance sheet is bad and getting worse. Net debt was $436 million at the end of 3Q, but most of the debt is due at the end of 2026, an amount that far outweighs cash. Management said on a conference call that it will replace it soon. That debt is currently realized at 8 percent cost. The company reported a current ratio of 1.5X. but that large debt due in 2026 will become current instead of long-term at the end of Q4 and this ratio will drop to 0.6X. The Virginia purchase would reduce it further.

Of course, the company can roll over the debt, but lenders should consider negative tangible equity as of Q3 of $853.6 million. This includes huge tax liabilities of $759 million. It is possible that the company will get a new loan, but investors should expect the interest rate to be potentially higher than the current 8%. The company may also sell some shares.

MSOS owns a lot of Curaleaf

MSOS controls 74.47 million shares of Curaleaf, its largest position. The Curaleaf has a thin flame compared to its peers and this further reduces it. Curaeaf’s shares are 678 million, so MSOS’s stake is more than 10% of the company’s outstanding subordinated shares, which trade over the counter in the US and on the TSX in Canada. I add the multiple voting shares as well as the RSUs and PSUs and some cash options to get a total stock dilution of 803 million, so MSOS has a 9.3% stake in the company.

If MSOS receives repayments again, it will likely need to sell more Curaleaf. Most investors remember the large number of ETF shares that redeemed in late 2022 and 2023. There were further redemptions in early 2025 and then again in November, when the number of shares fell 2%. Yesterday, shares fell by 0.5% due to another redemption. Despite this decline, the number of shares expanded by 41% in 2025. Curaleaf shares controlled by MSOS are up 54% year over year, compared to 32% for Trulieve and 2% for GTI. Curaleaf now holds the largest position at 26.7%, while Trulieve has 21.6% and Green Thumb Industries has 21.3%.

When MSOS received redemptions in November, it reduced Curaleaf shares it controlled by 2%, and then again yesterday. If the ETF receives more redemptions, it will likely sell more CURLF. This could be a problem if the ETF receives redemptions after bad news regarding 280E taxation emerges, as there are fewer buyers in that scenario.

Conclusion

Curaleaf traded at $0.84 on June 30 and rose to $2.04 on August 8, just ahead of the potential restructuring news. It’s unclear to me why Curaleaf is doing so well compared to its peers and other cannabis stocks. Cannabis stocks have been very volatile. Two that I have not liked at all over the past few years, Canopy Growth and Tilray Brands, have fallen so much and sold off the stock so much that I am now neutral on both. The demise of the 280E, if it happens, would be great for Curaleaf, but there are others that would benefit greatly as well. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks extend decline in November

M&A:

Cannabist to sell Virginia assets to Curaleaf

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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

On December 4, 2025 at 1:13 PM