Cannabis News
Is $30 Billion in Revenue and $4 Billion in Losses Good?
Published
1 year agoon
By
admin
Cannabis.net recently put out a piece called, “The Cannabis Industry Ponzi Scheme – Is a Sale a Sale if No One Actually Pays the Bill? (Or Taxes?)”, that questioned how valid the reported revenue streams are in the marijuana industry if no one actually has the cash to pay the bills and invoices. Accounts payable and accounts receivable are very different monsters with cash in the bank being important right now in the cannabis industry.
The article talked about revenue vs. profit as some of the best cannabis headlines talk about how many billions the cannabis market will be forth in 2025, 2028, and 2035. We just found out the big difference between what a market is worth, what the market’s sales numbers are, and what the profit in the industry actually is, or lack there of profit.
Fast forward to a great piece today on the Green Market Report written by John Shroyer titled, “Two Dozen Publicly Traded Cannabis Companies Lost $4 Billion in 2022”. The article goes into great detail about how cannabis companies took it on the chin in 2022, and how some of the charges were one-time write downs and write-offs. The overall theme from interviewee Alan Brochstein is that 2023 has to be better because it couldn’t get any worse than 2022.
A quick fact check of a Forbes article says legal cannabis sales in America in 2022 came to $30 billion, about $3 billion short of MJ BIZ projections for the year.
Back of the napkin math says $30 billion in revenue and a negative $4 billion in profit is a not a viable business model, but people get confused with “market size” and “sales”, and don’t focus enough on “profit margin” and “profits”. A great example is the supermarket industry. According to Statista super market sales topped $848 billion in America in 2022, but did you know supermarkets operate on razor thin margins of 1% to 3%.
In general, the profit margin at a grocery store is between 1% and 3%. But, as with most things, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. Even though big grocery stores have low profit margins, they still make money because they sell a lot of items in a lot of places.
Selling a ton of product at low margins to make money (quantity volume over quality specialized products) sounds just like a commodity, much like the cannabis industry is heading for with Federal legalization and international trade. At some point cannabis will have a Futures contract and be traded the same way corn and soybeans are traded, it is a plant that grows in 8 to 12 weeks, indoor or outdoors.
But I digress….
Is 2022 the bottom and it “can’t get any worse”? Well, yes, those companies did take one time write down and write off charges, but many of those charges HAD TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN due to new market pricing and conditions. So, to say 2022 is the bottom, implies the industry has reached some sort of stability on costs, pricing, and margins. None of that is true in the least sense, in fact, maybe just the opposite as Federal legalization and interstate commerce will drive prices down on both the legal and illicit markets. Once international trade starts in one form or the other, that will lower price and margins even more as low labor costs and sunny climates will have distinct advantages. Think it is crazy that cannabis will be shipping worldwide soon? Colombia is already shipping medical cannabis around the world, especially to Europe, under resolution 539 of their constitution. Their cannabis quality is so good nations are already fighting over getting their hands on a strain called Creepy.
Yes, those $4 billion in losses do not include every brand and every company in cannabis, but it gives a great 5,000-foot snapshot of cannabis retail in 2022. The article even mentions a few companies that turned a profit. Remember, those MSO who are publicly traded are the smart ones how have the resources to vertically integrate in each state and scale up when “Mom and Pop” cannabis shops can’t do that. The wicked smart and rich guys who can vertically integrate and scale only lost $4 billion on $30 billion in sales.
Some of those write downs won’t be on the books in 2023, but some of those tax bills the MSOs are kicking down the road might have to be paid as well. Who is to say that the free fall in cannabis prices doesn’t continue for 2023, or for that matter, into 2024 and 2025 as new states legalize and new black markets start operating in each state.
Cannabis retail is ugly right now but if you think you kissed the ugliest pig with lipstick, wait until you see next year’s profit margins and based on big sales numbers. If we are lucky, maybe the industry only loses $1 billion instead of $4 billion.
The two biggest paradigm shifts in the future for US cannabis, interstate commerce with Federal legalization, and international legalization and trade, are both net negative for US cannabis companies as black-market sales and shipping both domestically and internationally will take off. Smaller suppliers can compete on ecommerce sites with publicly traded MSOs. Their moat of lawyers and building leases come crashing down when small state operators start to drive traffic to their own cannabis stores and start shipping product by USPS and UPS.
Wait until “Mom and Pop” operators learn how to use Facebook Ads and Tik Tok influencers.
Right now, it is only $4 billion in losses because those MSOs hold the key to legal supply in many states, when that lock gets broken down by interstate commerce and internet orders, $4 billion in losses may be looked like the glory years before there was so much competition on the selling side.
Oh yeah, don’t forget to read about how Chalice Farms, Oregon’s 3rd largest dispensary chain, just went belly up and into receivership since cannabis companies don’t get the luxury of bankruptcy protection.
CANNABIS INDUSTRY NUMBERS, READ ON…
IS THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY ONE BIG PONZI SCHEME OF NO PAYMENTS?
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Margin Compression Madness – $1,000 Fine for Selling Weed at Too Low of a Price?
Published
54 minutes agoon
November 15, 2024By
admin
A cannabis store in Revelstoke, British Columbia, has been fined $1,000 for selling products at a 50% discount, violating provincial regulations. The Liquor and Cannabis Regulation Branch (LCRB) determined that the sale breached rules against selling cannabis below cost. The penalty was issued following a hearing in October, with the fine due by November 23, 2024. This incident highlights ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the cannabis industry as it navigates complex pricing laws.
The trouble began when Fresh Cannabis Co. Inc., operating as Cost Cannabis, advertised a massive sale on all products and accessories, slashing prices by half. This promotion caught the attention of the LCRB after a complaint was lodged on April 22, 2024. An inspector visited the store just days later to investigate whether the store was indeed selling cannabis below the minimum prices set by the government.
During the inspection on April 25, the inspector asked about four specific products, and staff confirmed that their sale prices were lower than their listed prices. However, when asked for documentation regarding their purchase prices, the store could not provide it at that moment. This lack of transparency raised further concerns.
After a thorough investigation that included requests for sales records and inventory lists, it became clear that Cost Cannabis was selling products below both the price they paid to the provincial distributor and the wholesale price. The LCRB’s ruling emphasized that such practices could lead to public safety issues, including over-consumption and loss of control among consumers.
Regulations surrounding cannabis sales in British Columbia
The regulations surrounding cannabis sales in British Columbia are designed to create a safe and stable market. The LCRB enforces rules that prevent retailers from selling cannabis at prices lower than what they paid to ensure fair competition and consumer safety. These measures aim to deter practices that could lead to over-service or over-consumption of cannabis products.
In this case, Dianne Flood, a delegate from the LCRB, noted that the store should have anticipated that a blanket promotion of 50% off would raise red flags for regulators. She pointed out that there was no evidence showing that Cost Cannabis had taken steps to prevent such violations from occurring.
Cost Cannabis Defense
Faced with the fine, Cost Cannabis admitted to violating minimum pricing rules but argued that these regulations do not effectively prevent over-service or over-consumption. They contended that the persistent presence of an illicit market—where cannabis can be purchased at significantly lower prices—poses a greater risk of unsafe consumption than licensed retailers selling below minimum prices.
The store highlighted that many consumers still turn to unregulated sources for their cannabis needs because of price disparities. They claimed this underground market is often more likely to contribute to public safety issues due to potentially tainted products.
Despite their arguments, Flood concluded that the violation had been proven and imposed a $1,000 fine—the minimum penalty for such an infraction. She stated that first-time violations could result in either a monetary penalty or a short suspension of the business’s license.
Broader Industry Implications
The incident involving Cost Cannabis in Revelstoke, British Columbia, raises significant questions about pricing strategies within the province’s legal cannabis market. As retailers navigate an increasingly competitive landscape, they must find a balance between competitive pricing and regulatory compliance while addressing consumer preferences influenced by a persistent illicit market.
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The Challenge of Compliance
The fine imposed on Cost Cannabis for selling products at a 50% discount highlights the stringent regulations governing cannabis pricing in British Columbia. Retailers are prohibited from selling cannabis below the price they paid to the government or below the wholesale price. This regulation aims to prevent practices that could lead to over-consumption and protect public safety. However, it also creates challenges for retailers who want to attract customers in a crowded market.
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Understanding Regulatory Frameworks: Retailers must have a clear understanding of the regulations that govern their pricing strategies. Compliance with minimum pricing laws is crucial not only to avoid penalties but also to maintain their licenses and reputations. Failure to comply can result in fines, as seen in this case, and can damage consumer trust.
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Strategic Pricing Models: Developing a strategic pricing model that aligns with both regulatory requirements and market expectations is essential. Retailers should conduct thorough market analyses to understand competitor pricing and consumer behavior. This understanding can help them position their products effectively while adhering to legal standards.
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The Impact of the Illicit Market
The ongoing presence of the illicit cannabis market complicates pricing strategies for legal retailers. Many consumers still turn to unregulated sources for cheaper products, which can undermine the efforts of licensed stores.
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Consumer Education: Educating consumers about the benefits of purchasing from licensed retailers is vital. Legal products are subject to safety regulations and quality controls that illegal products do not adhere to. Retailers can leverage this information in their marketing strategies to encourage consumers to choose legal options over cheaper illicit alternatives.
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Advocacy for Regulatory Change: Retailers may need to advocate for changes in regulations that could help level the playing field with the illicit market. This could include lobbying for adjustments in taxation or minimum pricing laws that allow licensed stores more flexibility in their pricing strategies.
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Long-term Sustainability and Market Dynamics
The fine against Cost Cannabis underscores broader issues related to sustainability and competition within the cannabis industry.
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Market Stability: Maintaining stable prices is essential for the long-term viability of the legal cannabis market. If retailers engage in aggressive discounting or undercutting each other, it could lead to unsustainable business practices that harm overall profitability.
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Innovation and Differentiation: To effectively compete against both legal and illegal markets, retailers must focus on innovation and differentiation rather than solely on price competition. Offering unique product lines, exceptional customer service, or creating engaging retail experiences can help draw consumers away from cheaper alternatives.
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Building Brand Loyalty: Establishing strong brand loyalty can mitigate the impact of price competition. Retailers who cultivate relationships with their customers through loyalty programs, community involvement, and personalized service may find that consumers are willing to pay a premium for trusted products.
Conclusion
The $1,000 fine imposed on Cost Cannabis serves as a reminder of the challenges faced by retailers operating within British Columbia’s legal cannabis framework. As they navigate competitive pressures and regulatory requirements, incidents like this underscore the importance of compliance with provincial laws designed to protect public health and safety.
As British Columbia continues refining its approach to cannabis regulation, ongoing dialogue among regulators, retailers, and consumers will be essential in fostering a sustainable marketplace. This incident not only highlights the complexities of operating within this industry but also emphasizes the need for all stakeholders to work collaboratively toward a safer and more equitable cannabis market in Canada.
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Cannabis News
Latest Trump Weed Rumor – Trump Will Federally Deschedule and Decriminalize Cannabis, but Not Legalize It
Published
1 day agoon
November 14, 2024By
admin
In a recent interview, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie made headlines by asserting that President-elect Donald Trump will pursue significant reforms in federal policies regarding marijuana and cryptocurrency. As the nation grapples with evolving attitudes toward cannabis and the burgeoning digital currency market, Christie’s predictions have ignited discussions about the potential implications of such changes on both industries. This article delves into Christie’s insights, the current state of marijuana and cryptocurrency regulations, and the broader implications of these anticipated reforms.
The Current Landscape of Marijuana Legislation
Federal vs. State Laws
Marijuana remains classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), which places it in the same category as heroin and LSD. This classification has created a complex legal landscape where states have moved to legalize cannabis for medical and recreational use, while federal law continues to impose strict prohibitions. As of now, over 30 states have legalized marijuana in some form, leading to a burgeoning industry that generates billions in revenue.
Challenges Faced by the Cannabis Industry
Despite its legality in many states, the cannabis industry faces significant hurdles due to federal restrictions. These challenges include:
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Banking Access: Many banks are hesitant to work with cannabis businesses due to fear of federal repercussions, forcing these businesses to operate largely in cash.
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Taxation Issues: The IRS enforces Section 280E of the tax code, which prohibits businesses engaged in illegal activities from deducting normal business expenses, leading to disproportionately high tax burdens for cannabis companies.
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Interstate Commerce: The lack of federal legalization prevents cannabis businesses from operating across state lines, limiting their growth potential.
Chris Christie’s Perspective on Marijuana Reform
Christie, a former presidential candidate known for his tough stance on drugs during his tenure as governor, has evolved his views on marijuana over the years. In his recent statements, he emphasized that Trump is likely to pursue descheduling cannabis, which would remove it from the Schedule I classification. This move would not only provide clarity for businesses operating in legal markets but also open avenues for banking and investment.
Christie highlighted that descheduling would allow for a more regulated market where safety standards could be established, thus protecting consumers. He believes that this approach aligns with a growing consensus among Americans who support legalization and recognize the potential benefits of cannabis use for both medical and recreational purposes.
The Future of Cryptocurrency Regulation = The Rise of Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies have surged in popularity over the past decade, with Bitcoin leading the charge as the first decentralized digital currency. The market has expanded to include thousands of alternative coins (altcoins), each with unique features and use cases. As cryptocurrencies gain traction among investors and consumers alike, regulatory scrutiny has intensified.
Current Regulatory Challenges
The cryptocurrency market faces several regulatory challenges that hinder its growth and adoption:
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Lack of Clarity: Regulatory frameworks vary significantly across states and countries, creating confusion for investors and businesses.
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Fraud and Scams: The rapid growth of cryptocurrencies has led to an increase in fraudulent schemes targeting unsuspecting investors.
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Consumer Protection: Without clear regulations, consumers are often left vulnerable to risks associated with volatile markets.
Christie’s Vision for Crypto Regulation
Christie believes that under Trump’s leadership, there will be an effort to find a “sweet spot” for cryptocurrency regulation balancing innovation with consumer protection. He argues that overly stringent regulations could stifle growth in this emerging sector while too little oversight could expose consumers to significant risks.
In his view, a balanced regulatory framework would include:
1. Clear Definitions: Establishing clear definitions for different types of cryptocurrencies and tokens to differentiate between securities and utility tokens.
2. Consumer Protections: Implementing measures to protect investors from fraud while promoting transparency within the market.
3. Encouraging Innovation: Creating an environment conducive to innovation by allowing startups to thrive without excessive regulatory burdens.
Christie’s insights reflect a growing recognition among policymakers that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and that appropriate regulations are necessary to foster growth while safeguarding consumers.
Implications of Proposed Reforms
Economic Impact
The potential reforms proposed by Christie could have far-reaching economic implications:
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Job Creation: Legalizing marijuana at the federal level could lead to significant job creation within the cannabis industry—from cultivation and production to retail sales.
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Investment Opportunities: Descheduling cannabis would open up investment opportunities for institutional investors who have been hesitant due to federal restrictions.
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Boosting Local Economies: Legal cannabis markets have proven beneficial for local economies through increased tax revenues and job creation.
Similarly, clear regulations around cryptocurrencies could stimulate investment in blockchain technology and related industries, fostering innovation and economic growth.
Social Justice Considerations
Both marijuana legalization and sensible cryptocurrency regulations have social justice implications:
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Addressing Past Injustices: Legalizing marijuana could help rectify past injustices related to drug enforcement policies that disproportionately affected marginalized communities.
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Financial Inclusion: Cryptocurrencies offer opportunities for financial inclusion for those underserved by traditional banking systems, particularly in low-income communities.
Political Landscape
The political landscape surrounding these issues is complex. While there is bipartisan support for marijuana reform among certain lawmakers, challenges remain in overcoming entrenched opposition. Similarly, cryptocurrency regulation has garnered attention from both sides of the aisle but requires collaboration to establish effective frameworks.
Conclusion
Chris Christie’s predictions about President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to federal marijuana descheduling and cryptocurrency regulation suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy that could significantly reshape both industries. As public opinion evolves on these issues, lawmakers have an opportunity to enact meaningful reforms that promote economic growth while ensuring consumer protection. The anticipated changes could foster a more robust cannabis industry that contributes positively to the economy and addresses social justice concerns, while clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies could encourage innovation and protect consumers in the digital economy. Stakeholders in both sectors are closely watching these developments, eager to see how potential reforms might impact their futures. While the realization of Christie’s predictions remains uncertain, it’s clear that the conversation around marijuana and cryptocurrency regulation is ongoing and far from settled.
TRUMP 2.0 ON CANNABIS REFORM, READ ON…
TRUMP 2.0 ON FEDERAL CANNABIS REFORM – WHAT DO WE KNOW?
Cannabis News
Webinar Replay: Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em
Published
2 days agoon
November 13, 2024By
admin
On Thursday, November 7th, Vince Sliwoski, Aaron Pelley and Fred Rocafort held a post election discussion “Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em”. Watch the replay!
Key Takeaways from the “Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em – 2024 Post Election Cannabis Wrap” Webinar:
- Panelists:
- Vince Sliwoski: Oregon Business lawyer specializing in cannabis and commercial real estate.
- Aaron Pelley: Experienced in cannabis law since Washington’s legalization in 2012.
- Fred Rocafort: Trademark attorney working closely with the cannabis team.
- Election Results Overview:
- Most 2024 cannabis ballot measures did not pass.
- Florida, South Dakota, and North Dakota saw failures.
- Nebraska became the 39th state to legalize cannabis for medical use when it passed two cannabis initiatives, Initiatives 437 and 438.
- Federal and State-Level Developments:
- Medical use is currently legal in 38 states, and 24 states allow recreational use.
- Republican support for marijuana legalization is growing.
- Federal Policy Implications:
- Schedule III Rescheduling: The process to move cannabis to Schedule III is ongoing, which could significantly impact the industry.
- Importance of Federal Appointments: The future of cannabis policy depends heavily on who is appointed to key positions in the administration.
- International and Domestic Trade:
- Schedule III status could ease import/export restrictions on cannabis.
- Unified control of House, Senate, and presidency might expedite legislative progress.
- Economic and Industry Impact:
- Cannabis stocks experienced volatility post-election, reflecting investor uncertainty.
- Federal legalization and banking reforms are crucial for industry stability and growth.
- Future Outlook:
- The potential for federal rescheduling remains strong, with hearings scheduled for early 2025.
- State-level initiatives and regulatory developments will continue to shape the industry.
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