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Is $30 Billion in Revenue and $4 Billion in Losses Good?

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Cannabis.net recently put out a piece called, “The Cannabis Industry Ponzi Scheme – Is a Sale a Sale if No One Actually Pays the Bill? (Or Taxes?)”, that questioned how valid the reported revenue streams are in the marijuana industry if no one actually has the cash to pay the bills and invoices.  Accounts payable and accounts receivable are very different monsters with cash in the bank being important right now in the cannabis industry.

The article talked about revenue vs. profit as some of the best cannabis headlines talk about how many billions the cannabis market will be forth in 2025, 2028, and 2035.  We just found out the big difference between what a market is worth, what the market’s sales numbers are, and what the profit in the industry actually is, or lack there of profit.

 

Fast forward to a great piece today on the Green Market Report written by John Shroyer titled, “Two Dozen Publicly Traded Cannabis Companies Lost $4 Billion in 2022”.  The article goes into great detail about how cannabis companies took it on the chin in 2022, and how some of the charges were one-time write downs and write-offs.  The overall theme from interviewee Alan Brochstein is that 2023 has to be better because it couldn’t get any worse than 2022.

 

A quick fact check of a Forbes article says legal cannabis sales in America in 2022 came to $30 billion, about $3 billion short of MJ BIZ projections for the year.

 

Back of the napkin math says $30 billion in revenue and a negative $4 billion in profit is a not a viable business model, but people get confused with “market size” and “sales”, and don’t focus enough on “profit margin” and “profits”.  A great example is the supermarket industry. According to Statista super market sales topped $848 billion in America in 2022, but did you know supermarkets operate on razor thin margins of 1% to 3%.

As Marking Food Online Says:

In general, the profit margin at a grocery store is between 1% and 3%. But, as with most things, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. Even though big grocery stores have low profit margins, they still make money because they sell a lot of items in a lot of places.

 

Selling a ton of product at low margins to make money (quantity volume over quality specialized products) sounds just like a commodity, much like the cannabis industry is heading for with Federal legalization and international trade.  At some point cannabis will have a Futures contract and be traded the same way corn and soybeans are traded, it is a plant that grows in 8 to 12 weeks, indoor or outdoors.

 

But I digress….

Is 2022 the bottom and it “can’t get any worse”?  Well, yes, those companies did take one time write down and write off charges, but many of those charges HAD TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN due to new market pricing and conditions.  So, to say 2022 is the bottom, implies the industry has reached some sort of stability on costs, pricing, and margins.  None of that is true in the least sense, in fact, maybe just the opposite as Federal legalization and interstate commerce will drive prices down on both the legal and illicit markets.  Once international trade starts in one form or the other, that will lower price and margins even more as low labor costs and sunny climates will have distinct advantages.  Think it is crazy that cannabis will be shipping worldwide soon?  Colombia is already shipping medical cannabis around the world, especially to Europe, under resolution 539 of their constitution.  Their cannabis quality is so good nations are already fighting over getting their hands on a strain called Creepy

 

Yes, those $4 billion in losses do not include every brand and every company in cannabis, but it gives a great 5,000-foot snapshot of cannabis retail in 2022.  The article even mentions a few companies that turned a profit.  Remember, those MSO who are publicly traded are the smart ones how have the resources to vertically integrate in each state and scale up when “Mom and Pop” cannabis shops can’t do that.  The wicked smart and rich guys who can vertically integrate and scale only lost $4 billion on $30 billion in sales.

 

Some of those write downs won’t be on the books in 2023, but some of those tax bills the MSOs are kicking down the road might have to be paid as well.  Who is to say that the free fall in cannabis prices doesn’t continue for 2023, or for that matter, into 2024 and 2025 as new states legalize and new black markets start operating in each state.

 

Cannabis retail is ugly right now but if you think you kissed the ugliest pig with lipstick, wait until you see next year’s profit margins and based on big sales numbers.  If we are lucky, maybe the industry only loses $1 billion instead of $4 billion.

 

The two biggest paradigm shifts in the future for US cannabis, interstate commerce with Federal legalization, and international legalization and trade, are both net negative for US cannabis companies as black-market sales and shipping both domestically and internationally will take off.  Smaller suppliers can compete on ecommerce sites with publicly traded MSOs.  Their moat of lawyers and building leases come crashing down when small state operators start to drive traffic to their own cannabis stores and start shipping product by USPS and UPS.

 

Wait until “Mom and Pop” operators learn how to use Facebook Ads and Tik Tok influencers.

 

Right now, it is only $4 billion in losses because those MSOs hold the key to legal supply in many states, when that lock gets broken down by interstate commerce and internet orders, $4 billion in losses may be looked like the glory years before there was so much competition on the selling side.

 

Oh yeah, don’t forget to read about how Chalice Farms, Oregon’s 3rd largest dispensary chain, just went belly up and into receivership since cannabis companies don’t get the luxury of bankruptcy protection. 

 

CANNABIS INDUSTRY NUMBERS, READ ON…

CANNABIS PONZI SCHEME

IS THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY ONE BIG PONZI SCHEME OF NO PAYMENTS?



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Federal Cannabis Roundup: Nixon, DEA, Tobacco-Hemp . . . and the DOOBIE Act (*sigh*)

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Last week, I wrote a round-up post on Oregon cannabis. This week, I thought I’d drop a line on the federal happenings. Which are quite a few.

The Nixon tapes

This was a fun piece of news, unearthed by Minnesota cannabis lobbyist Kurtis Hanna. Ernesto Londoño then broke the story on September 14th for the New York Times, which you can read here. In short, Nixon conceded that marijuana “is not particularly dangerous,” despite calling the plant “public enemy No. 1” only two years prior. And he opined that punishments ought not be so serious for possession of the plant.

I say this news is “fun” because it’s more interesting than surprising and I doubt it will have much impact. Nixon was a mean old liar, and one with an animus toward certain groups of people. I also don’t think this revelation will persuade the vocal, diminishing minority of prohibitionists to change their minds. I like it anyway, especially as cannabis history nerd. We were right!

DEA embraces two-step review for marijuana rescheduling

This one is important, in my opinion. It relates to the method of analysis DEA must undertake when determining whether a drug, including marijuana (and psilocybin, and any other verboten substance), has a “currently accepted medical use.” In April, the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) put DEA in a box on this one, explaining that the old, five-part test was “impermissibly narrow.” OLC thus endorsed the two-part test. On September 17th, DEA assented to the test for Schedule I review.

The two-part test bodes well for DEA’s rulemaking, now underway, to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the federal Controlled Substances Act. How do we know? Well, the Schedule I stans don’t like it, for starters. This is because, under two-part review, a drug can have currently accepted medical use: a) even if that drug hasn’t been approved by FDA, and b) even if the drug wouldn’t pass DEA’s scrapped five-part test. So, more runway.

DOOBIE Act on the way?

I’m embarrassed even having to type that. But yes, some Congressperson named a federal cannabis bill the “DOOBIE Act,” unfortunately. With a press release and everything.

This proposal would prohibit federal agencies from denying security clearance and employment to people simply because they have used marijuana. In my reading of the actual bill, these agencies could still ding an applicant for past marijuana use, but they couldn’t “base a suitability determination . . . solely on the past use of marijuana by the individual.” The word “solely” needs to go.

Because this bill applies only to “Executive agencies” under 5 U.S. Code § 105, it also wouldn’t have prohibited, say, Joe Biden from doing his “doobie” staffers dirty, which he definitely did.

FDA gets the nod on tobacco-hemp

I like the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and often send people thataway. On September 16th, CRS published a new report titled “Legal Effect of Marijuana Rescheduling on FDA’s Regulation of Cannabis.” Here are my extremely condensed takeaways:

  1. FDA can authorize tobacco products containing hemp-derived cannabinoids (although it hasn’t yet). This is because hemp is not a controlled substance.
  2. Marijuana, even at Schedule III, would still be banned as a tobacco additive (and probably always will be). This is because FDA would need to approve specific cannabis medicines first, and it never does that for botanical drugs.

Here we have one of those cognitively dissonant outcomes often seen with the cannabis plant. As a reading of law it makes sense, but as to policy it’s nonsense. You can thank Richard Nixon and other cannabis heels for that.



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Does Hemp Have Cancer-Fighting Properties?

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Does Hemp Have Cancer-Fighting Properties?

Hemp, Weed’s Cousin, May Have More Therapeutic Value Than We Thought

 

While both hemp and cannabis come from the same plant, they possess significant differences.

 

Hemp, in particular, has become the less popular cousin of weed because more people were interested in the psychoactive properties of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). And since hemp only contains less 0.3% or less of THC, recreational consumers weren’t keen on it.

 

Historically speaking, hemp has been famous for thousands of years across ancient civilizations around the world. It was cultivated for its reliable fibers, used in textiles, rope, clothing, and paper. Even back then, hemp’s nutritious properties were known. People ate its seeds and extracted oil, while it was used for treating many conditions in ancient China and ancient India.

 

However, hemp plants do contain a much higher amount of cannabidiol (CBD), and due to the sheer demand for CBD products lately for their medicinal benefits, hemp became better-known. Now, the global CBD market is estimated to be worth a cool US $7.71 billion, and it’s only expected to grow more. After all, the CBD in hemp has been found to be tremendously powerful especially for treating a wide range of diseases and afflictions, from anxiety to insomnia, and much more.

 

However, CBD isn’t the only therapeutic value found in hemp.

 

Can Hemp Help Fight Cancer?

A recent study by the Rowett Institute took a look into the potential value of specific fibers added to the diet of patients with prostate cancer, and its effect, if any, on tumors. The NHS Grampian Charity has invested £90,000 into this research, which has been led by Professor Anne Kiltie, who is a member of Friends of ANCHOR Clinical Chair in Oncology, at the University of Aberdeen.

The new study, which was conducted by Dr. Aliu Moomin, Dr. Sylvia Duncan, and Dr. Madi Neascu, focused on hemp fibers such as hemp hull, inulin, and pectin. They analyzed how these fibers affect gut bacteria in animal models, and its overall impact on tumor cells.

 

According to Professor Kiltie: “This funding will allow us to build on our previous work demonstrating a benefit to dietary fibre supplementation in terms of improved tumor control and protection of the bowel from radiotherapy damage, by looking at other types of fiber and how these interact with the gut microbiota,” she said. The idea is that if they notice improvements when cancer patients supplement with fiber, and it actually helps delay the progression of cancer, this would be instrumental improving patient outcomes.


We have long known that diet plays a critical role in cancer development and prevention, so it only makes sense to take advantage of the healing power of gut microbiome for cancer patients. There are several studies that show a strong link between gut microbiome and one’s cancer risk. One study in particular found that patients with melanoma, who possessed healthy gut bacteria, had much better responses to immunotherapy treatments compared to patients who had poorer gut bacteria.

 

“We hope that this work would lead to a large randomized clinical trial in the UK in men on active surveillance for prostate cancer. If the fiber supplementation is found to delay progression of the disease and prevent the need for active treatments, this would significantly improve outcomes for these patients and their quality of life,” she added, shared by a release published by the University of Aberdeen.

According to Dr. Simon Dunmore, the NHS Grampian Charity research officer: “The importance of intestinal microbiome in a wide range of health areas, including the development of cancer, is becoming increasingly highlighted by numerous scientific studies,” he said. “This study will provide important evidence of the role of a beneficial gut microbiome composition in reducing the aggressiveness and development of prostate cancer and the positive effect of dietary fibre on the microbiome,” he added.

 

Studies On Hemp Oil For Cancer


There are other studies supporting the viability and potential of hemp compounds for treating cancer. In another recent study out of Shanghai in China, researchers found that hemp oil extracts which contain the terpenes humulene and caryophyllene were found to be effective in treating pain and fighting cancer.

 

For the study, Chinese researchers analyzed the tumor-fighting and painkilling properties of hemp oil on mice. They found that after administering the hemp oil extracts, it was found to significantly reduce tumor growth. “Thes results reveal that HEO [hemp essential oil] plays a role not only in tumor chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy treatment, but also in anti-tumor treatment which offers key information for new strategies in cancer treatment and provides reference for the medicinal development of hemp,” they said.


Additionally, since hemp contains abundant levels of cannabidiol (CBD), it can be used for alleviating the symptoms of cancer treatment. Studies have shown that CBD is effective for helping relieve pain, stimulate the appetite, and minimize nausea and vomiting – all of which are tremendously valuable for cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. CBD can also be integrated into one’s lifestyle to reduce chronic inflammation and stress, which, when left untreated, can contribute to cancer progression.

 

Conclusion


These studies are promising: hemp is clearly not just important for its industrial benefits, but it can also help save lives. The compounds found in hemp plants may help fight and treat cancer, shrink tumors, and even enhance the effectiveness of traditional cancer therapies. If you or a loved one want to explore using hemp for wellness and cancer prevention, you may consult with healthcare professionals for tailored medical advice.

 

HEMP FOR FIGHTING CANCER, READ ON…

CBD FOR OVARIAN CANCER

CBD FROM HEMP HELPS FIGHT OVARIAN CANCER IN NEW STUDY?



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Why is Everyone But the Youth Smoking Weed?

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In recent years, the landscape of cannabis use has undergone a surprising transformation, defying long-held predictions and challenging conventional wisdom. For decades, opponents of marijuana legalization have wielded a powerful argument: legalizing cannabis would send the wrong message to youth, inevitably leading to increased consumption among teenagers and young adults. This fear has been a cornerstone of anti-legalization campaigns, painting a grim picture of a future where young minds are clouded by widespread drug use.

However, as more states and countries have embraced cannabis legalization, an unexpected trend has emerged. Contrary to dire predictions, youth cannabis use has not skyrocketed. In fact, in many places, it has remained stable or even declined. Meanwhile, it’s the older generations who are increasingly turning to cannabis, with one of the fastest-growing demographics of users being adults over 50.

This shift isn’t limited to cannabis alone. Across the board, today’s youth are showing less interest in various substances, including alcohol and tobacco. It’s a trend that has left researchers and social commentators puzzled. Are we witnessing the rise of a more health-conscious, drug-averse generation? Or, as some might cheekily suggest, are young people today simply less inclined towards experimentation and risk-taking than their predecessors?

The implications of this trend are far-reaching, challenging not only our assumptions about drug policy but also our understanding of generational behaviors and values. On one hand, we could interpret this as a positive development – a sign that education and awareness campaigns are working, producing a generation more informed about the risks of substance use. On the other hand, it raises questions about changing social dynamics and what drives young people’s choices in today’s world.

In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind this intriguing phenomenon. Why are fewer young people turning to cannabis and other substances, even as legal barriers fall? And what’s driving older adults, particularly those over 50, to embrace cannabis in growing numbers?

By examining these trends, we hope to gain insight into the complex interplay of social, legal, and cultural factors shaping attitudes towards substance use in our society.

 

As we delve into the statistics, a clear trend emerges: fewer young people are indulging in substances across the board. Whether it’s alcohol, tobacco, or cannabis, today’s youth are increasingly abstaining. This shift has left many scratching their heads, wondering what’s behind this sudden display of temperance among the younger generation.

At first glance, one might be tempted to chalk it up to the success of drug education programs. After all, today’s youth are bombarded with information about the risks and consequences of substance use from an early age. Gone are the days of simplistic “Just Say No” campaigns and exaggerated scare tactics. Modern drug education tends to be more nuanced, focusing on harm reduction and evidence-based information.

However, as someone who went through the gauntlet of ’90s drug education myself, I can attest that knowledge doesn’t always translate to abstinence. My generation was subjected to a barrage of anti-drug messaging, yet many of us still experimented with various substances in our youth. So while improved education may play a role, it’s unlikely to be the sole factor driving this trend.

Perhaps we need to look at what today’s youth are doing instead. Enter the elephant in the room: social media. In many ways, social platforms have become the drug of choice for the younger generation. The constant dopamine hits from likes, shares, and notifications create a neurological response eerily similar to that of traditional stimulants. As kids spend more time glued to their screens, they may be less inclined to seek out other forms of stimulation.

Moreover, the ubiquity of social media has changed the nature of rebellion. When I was young, smoking a joint or sneaking a beer felt like acts of defiance against adult authority. But in a world where parents and grandparents are posting selfies and sharing memes, how does one rebel? For some youth, abstaining from substances their parents use might be the ultimate act of generational differentiation.

The normalization and legalization of cannabis in many areas have also played a role. As weed becomes more mainstream and socially accepted, it loses its countercultural edge. The image of cannabis has shifted from a symbol of rebellion to something your cool aunt does to relax after work. This transformation may have inadvertently made it less appealing to youth seeking to establish their own identity.

Lastly, we can’t ignore the practical aspects. As more adults turn to legal dispensaries for their cannabis, the street market that traditionally supplied curious teens has faced stiff competition. Legal establishments with strict ID checks have made it harder for underage users to access cannabis, potentially contributing to the decline in youth use.

In essence, today’s youth aren’t necessarily more virtuous or health-conscious than previous generations. They’re simply products of their environment – an environment that offers myriad digital distractions, blurs the lines of generational rebellion, and increasingly restricts access to substances. As we continue to navigate this shifting landscape, it’s crucial to remember that while reduced substance use among youth is generally positive, it doesn’t tell the whole story of their well-being. The challenges and pressures faced by today’s young people are unique, and our understanding and support should evolve accordingly.

 

As we turn our attention to the other end of the age spectrum, an intriguing trend emerges. While youth cannabis use is on the decline, adults over 50 are blazing up in record numbers. This demographic has become one of the fastest-growing segments of cannabis consumers, leaving many to wonder: why are the “olds” suddenly embracing their inner stoner?

To understand this phenomenon, we need to dive into the fascinating world of the endocannabinoid system. This complex network of receptors in our bodies doesn’t fully mature until around age 25. As we age, our natural endocannabinoid production tends to decline, leading to what some researchers call “endocannabinoid deficiency.” This can manifest in various ways, from mood disturbances to physical discomfort.

Enter cannabis. When older adults consume marijuana, they’re essentially giving their endocannabinoid system a much-needed boost. It’s like adding oil to a squeaky machine – suddenly, things start running more smoothly. Many report improvements in sleep, mood, and general well-being. It’s not just about getting high; for many, it’s about feeling balanced and functional.

Moreover, as we age, our bodies become less resilient to the effects of alcohol. A night of heavy drinking in your 20s might result in a manageable hangover, but the same indulgence in your 50s or 60s can knock you out for days. Cannabis, on the other hand, offers a gentler experience. You can enjoy an evening toke and still be ready to face the day come morning. For many older adults juggling work, family, and other responsibilities, this is a significant advantage.

Accessibility is another crucial factor. As more states legalize cannabis, it’s becoming increasingly easy for adults to walk into a dispensary and purchase high-quality, regulated products. Gone are the days of relying on sketchy dealers or questionable sources. This ease of access, combined with the normalization of cannabis use, has made it a more appealing option for older adults who might have been hesitant in the past.

Let’s not forget the economic aspect. In many cases, cannabis can be a more cost-effective option than alcohol, especially when consumed in moderation. A single joint can provide an evening’s worth of relaxation, often at a lower cost than a night out drinking. For retirees or those on fixed incomes, this economic advantage can be particularly appealing.

The health benefits of cannabis, especially when compared to alcohol, can’t be overstated. While excessive use of any substance can be harmful, moderate cannabis consumption doesn’t carry the same risks of liver damage, addiction, or long-term health consequences associated with alcohol abuse. For older adults looking to unwind without compromising their health, cannabis presents an attractive alternative.

In essence, the rising popularity of cannabis among older adults is a perfect storm of biological, practical, and social factors. It offers a way to potentially improve health and well-being, provides a gentler recreational experience, and aligns with changing social norms. As more research emerges on the potential benefits of cannabis for age-related issues, we may see this trend continue to grow.

Of course, it’s important to note that cannabis use, like any substance, should be approached responsibly and with an understanding of potential risks and interactions with medications. But for many in the over-50 crowd, it seems that cannabis is proving to be a welcome addition to their golden years.

Who would have thought that the “reefer madness” generation would end up being the ones to fully embrace the green revolution?

 

CANNABIS USE DROPS AMONG YOUTH, READ MORE..

WHY TEEN MARIJUANA USE DROPS AFTER LEGALIZATION

WHY CANNABIS USE DROPS 9% IN TEENS AFTER LEGALIZATION!

 

 



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