Each week, the Florida Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), part of the state Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including the number of active patients, the number of qualified physicians, new dispensary approvals and updates for each operator. That data includes the number of weekly dispensaries and unit sales. This is the sixteenth New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May 2024, offering readers be careful with florida. This article is based on update provided on 01/02 by the state for the week ending 01/01. Readers interested in further data may visit OMMU update page.

Patient growth has slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in November, and year-over-year patient growth fell to 4.5%, down from 8.4% at the end of May a year ago. The growth rate picked up slightly from March, when it fell to just 3.0%, to 5.5% at the end of October. Year-on-year growth slowed again and it fell last week, ending 01/01 at 3.9%. It has dropped a lot.

Although the number of patients is still increasing, the increase is very low and has decreased significantly from just a few years ago. 930 thousand patients make up 4% of the population of the state. The number of cases was declining before the potential legalization of adult use, but has recently increased slightly to a new high;

The year 2024 ended with about 895 thousand patients, and after that the increase was 3.9%. The annual rate was higher than the 3.5% increase in 2024, which was affected by the expected increase in adult cannabis, but was well below the 11.0% increase in 2023.

Over the years, some program improvements have helped Florida residents get excited about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edible products. Then, the post-epidemic population boom helped increase the number of patients. Outpatient clinics have increased, reaching 738 from 702 a year ago. That’s a 5.1% increase, slightly faster than the 3.9% increase in medical cannabis patients since then.

Unit growth remains very strong

In the last week, sales of medical cannabis products with THC increased by 23.7% compared to a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 17.7% from the week ending 01/02/25. Unit volume growth remains higher than revenue and patient gains. There are more stores and the volume of units is increasing.

We shared that Florida’s income grew just 1.4% from a year ago in April 2024, BDSA estimates. This was a record low at the time, but all historical data was revised by the BDSA for September. April 2024 growth is now reported at -40.8%, which seems a long way off. We contacted BDSA and they confirmed this revenue estimate as the 2021-2025 total is now much lower. Looking at revised 2025 data, Florida sales growth as projected by the BDSA has been volatile, with month-over-year growth ranging from -6.8% (April) to +17.2% (June). It increased by 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2024, and it decreased by 3.4% in December. Patient growth and dispensary growth led to unit growth, but overall sales were down year-over-year.

Florida MSOs are weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 about large MSOs in Florida because investors seemed overly bullish. The entire cannabis market has been in turmoil since then, and the entire group of IPOs is down sharply, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four Florida leaders are down significantly though 10/09/25, especially AYR Wellness, which has been betting big on its operations in the state;

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, at 6.68 last night, is down 38.3% since 01/05, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has eleven members and closed at 12.74, is down 38,015/5%. Three of Florida’s 4 dropped more than both. MSOS, which has Curaleaf and Trulieve currently 46.0% of the ETF, is down 53.7% since 5/16/24 to $4.53 (below $4.57 NAV). Planet 13, an acquisition that made them a major player in Florida, dropped 67.3%, better than two of Florida’s four leaders.

Fourteen months ago, many expected Florida to legalize cannabis for adults, and operators were expanding their dispensaries. Although a majority of Florida voters approved adult use, the measure failed to receive the 60% required to change the law. There were more dispensaries in 2025, due in part to the completion of plans that were in place before adult-use legalization failed. The market is struggling with slow patient growth, dispensary growth and competitive issues (like sales of cannabis-derived THC). The result was flat revenue despite strong unit growth.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters failed to pass an adult legalization ballot initiative, and they likely won’t be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and becoming more competitive. Florida will probably legalize it for adult use in 2026, but that’s a long time away. Investors, in our view, should be wary of Florida’s major operators, especially the two that are in business through 2025.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.

Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.

Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.

Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.

I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.

Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf

We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.

Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.

As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks increase in December, but end 2025 and decrease again

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View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. The index fell 7.5% in December last year to close 15.2% lower for the year, and it was also a poor start to 2025. It hit a new all-time high of 4.97 on the last day of March, before falling back in early April. The index gained 11.5% in April, but ended the second quarter from there, closing at 5.02. Q3 was strong with increases in July and August, and September, which started with a pullback, ended with another increase before pulling back on the last day. The index ended September down just a little, before falling in October and even lower in November. It rose sharply in December, rising 8.4% to 6.59. While stocks rose, 13 of the index’s 28 names declined for the month.

After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 28 members, fell 27% year-to-date in June. After a 53.0 percent rally in the third quarter, the index increased by 11.6 percent compared to last year. It fell 14.2% in the 4th quarter and was down 4.2% for the full year.

Since its peak in February 2021, the global hemp stock index is down 92.9% from a closing high of 92.48.

The 3 strongest names in December, each an MSO, are all up more than 58%;

Each of these stocks were significantly up year-over-year, and Q4 earnings were positive for Trulieve.

December’s 3 weakest names are all down more than 8%;

All of these stocks were down year-over-year, and Q4 was brutal for each.

The index has been recalculated as of the close of 12/31/31 and is based on data as of 12/23/23. For Q1, the index will have 27 names, down from 28 names, with three removals and two additions. AFCG, LIEN and SHFS are excluded from the index. Akanda (AKAN) and cbdMD (YCBD) are rejoining the index.

We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indexes that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain: the American Cannabis Operator Index, the Ancillary Cannabis Index, and the Canadian Cannabis LP Index.

American Hemp Operator Index

ACOI rallied in December, rising 43.7% to 13.18. It rose 123.6% to 12.99 in the third quarter and ended the year up 57.7% year to date from 8.36. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) was a big laggard, up 23.9%.

December’s strongest stock was Trulieve, which gained 61.2%. The weakest, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ), rose 10.4%.

In January, the index will have eleven members, with the additions of Ascend Wellness (OTC: AAWH ), Grown Rogue (GRUSF ), and Vireo Health (OTC: VREOF ).

Auxiliary cannabis index

Ancillary commodities rose 2.4% in December as the index reached 11.09. The index, which rose 14.5% to 12.72 in the third quarter, fell 12.8% in the fourth quarter. It decreased by 19.5% from 13.77 in 2025.

The strongest performing stock in December was NewLake Capital (OTC: NLCP ), which rose 24.1%. The weakest, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (NASDAQ: REFI ), fell 3.9%.

In January, the index will have the same eight members and two that are returning: iPower (NASDAQ: IPW ) and Chicago Atlantic BDC (NASDAQ: LIEN ).

Canadian Hemp LP Index

Canadian LPs rose 5.4% in December as the index fell to 59.01. The index, which increased by 78.4% in the third quarter, reaching 73.56. Declined 19.8% in Q4, but rose 17.8% in 2025 from 50.11.

The strongest Canadian LP in December was MTL Cannabis (CSE: MTL ), which jumped 62.5% after receiving a buy order. The weakest performer was Aurora Cannabis, down 10.3%.

In January, the index will have the same thirteen members.