You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
There hasn’t been much cannabis news this week, but what we did learn was kind of surprising. Cannabist, which sold one of its Virginia businesses to Verano for $90 million in 2024, announced the sale of its remaining Virginia assets to Curaleaf. Cannabist’s press release disclosed the price, while Curaleaf did not. Cannabist rallied and sold off and is now down 13.9% this week and down 39.9% year to date. The company is extremely difficult, in my opinion, and doesn’t really hold much value for investors given its low market cap and small trading volumes. Creditors are the ones who care.
Curaleaf, on the other hand, rallied on Wednesday after pulling back on Tuesday after announcing a pending $110 million buyout. It’s up 6.9% this week and is set to rise 56.4% in 2025. This is much better than the Global Hemp Stock Index, which is down 11.5% year-to-date at 6.09. MSOS, which carries most of Curaleaf, is down 3.2% in 2025.
I downgraded Curaleaf to Strong Sell at Seeking Alpha in April when it was $0.98 and yesterday it closed at $2.44. I remain very bearish on stocks and today I share an updated outlook. The main problems I see are that the valuation is too high relative to peers, the company has huge debt and MSOS has a lot.
Curaleaf’s rating is high compared to peers
While the current value of 7.8X projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 may seem low, it is a large premium to its peers;
Curaleaf outperformed the major MSOs in 2025, driving this high relative valuation;
Curaleaf’s balance sheet is poor
The balance sheet is bad and getting worse. Net debt was $436 million at the end of 3Q, but most of the debt is due at the end of 2026, an amount that far outweighs cash. Management said on a conference call that it will replace it soon. That debt is currently realized at 8 percent cost. The company reported a current ratio of 1.5X. but that large debt due in 2026 will become current instead of long-term at the end of Q4 and this ratio will drop to 0.6X. The Virginia purchase would reduce it further.
Of course, the company can roll over the debt, but lenders should consider negative tangible equity as of Q3 of $853.6 million. This includes huge tax liabilities of $759 million. It is possible that the company will get a new loan, but investors should expect the interest rate to be potentially higher than the current 8%. The company may also sell some shares.
MSOS owns a lot of Curaleaf
MSOS controls 74.47 million shares of Curaleaf, its largest position. The Curaleaf has a thin flame compared to its peers and this further reduces it. Curaeaf’s shares are 678 million, so MSOS’s stake is more than 10% of the company’s outstanding subordinated shares, which trade over the counter in the US and on the TSX in Canada. I add the multiple voting shares as well as the RSUs and PSUs and some cash options to get a total stock dilution of 803 million, so MSOS has a 9.3% stake in the company.
If MSOS receives repayments again, it will likely need to sell more Curaleaf. Most investors remember the large number of ETF shares that redeemed in late 2022 and 2023. There were further redemptions in early 2025 and then again in November, when the number of shares fell 2%. Yesterday, shares fell by 0.5% due to another redemption. Despite this decline, the number of shares expanded by 41% in 2025. Curaleaf shares controlled by MSOS are up 54% year over year, compared to 32% for Trulieve and 2% for GTI. Curaleaf now holds the largest position at 26.7%, while Trulieve has 21.6% and Green Thumb Industries has 21.3%.
When MSOS received redemptions in November, it reduced Curaleaf shares it controlled by 2%, and then again yesterday. If the ETF receives more redemptions, it will likely sell more CURLF. This could be a problem if the ETF receives redemptions after bad news regarding 280E taxation emerges, as there are fewer buyers in that scenario.
Conclusion
Curaleaf traded at $0.84 on June 30 and rose to $2.04 on August 8, just ahead of the potential restructuring news. It’s unclear to me why Curaleaf is doing so well compared to its peers and other cannabis stocks. Cannabis stocks have been very volatile. Two that I have not liked at all over the past few years, Canopy Growth and Tilray Brands, have fallen so much and sold off the stock so much that I am now neutral on both. The demise of the 280E, if it happens, would be great for Curaleaf, but there are others that would benefit greatly as well. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
With the first month of the year almost half over, the Global Hemp Stock Index rose 0.3% to 6.61. While that’s better than cash, it lags the S&P 500, which gained 1.2%, and notably the Russell 2000, which gained 6.9%.
The global hemp stock index has been in decline over the past five years, falling 4.2% in 2025, its best annual performance since a recent surge in 2020. The hemp industry is so down and should be rallying, but most bets on that outcome have lost money.
The index was recalculated at year-end, with three stocks exiting and two entering, leaving the index with 27 stocks. So far in 2026, 17 are up, with double-digit percentage gains, and 10 are down, including three that are down more than 20%. Here is a table that includes all the companies and some additional information:
The average market cap is $1.1 billion. MSOS is up 4.7% year-to-date, and the index contains 7 MSOs, all of which have gained. The last column shows that five of these seven have negative tangible book value, suggesting potential downside risk for those with significant debt.
I keep a close eye on 16 of the 27 names. Canopy Growth, Cresco Labs, Cronos Group, Curaleaf, GrowGeneration, Green Thumb Industries, Innovative Industrial Properties, WM Technology, Organigram, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Scotts Miracle-TilrayrA BTrumsndce, Villa Verano. I’ve covered most of the others and written about RYTHM and SNDL on Seeking Alpha.
The drops include two recent additions that got me thinking more about inclusion rules. These two as well as others have very low market caps. They all met the minimum price rule and minimum average daily trading value criteria, and they are in the cannabis sector. The next rebalance, which will take place in March, may include some new rules.
The overall stock market is on the rise, but hemp stocks are still not catching the attention of investors. Shares in the index, up just 0.3% year to date, are trading near their 50-day and 150-day moving averages. MSOs are helping the market so far, while several stocks are hurting it. My model portfolio in the 420 Investor, which did very well in 2025, is outperforming the index so far in 2026. I’m very underweight MSOs relative to the index, own two, slightly overweight Canadian LPs (three names) and have a large overweight in ancillaries (four names). The model portfolio had 19% cash on 1/14.
The cannabis industry suffers from slow growth, increased competition, a slowdown in adult-use states, an uncertain regulatory environment at the federal level, and many unfair taxes (280E) Hopefully things will improve in 2026.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Michigan hemp sales for the month of December increased from a year ago as they rose 3.8% sequentially, which was +0.5% on a daily basis. At $269.7 million, sales increased by 1.6 percent compared to last year.
The Michigan Cannabis Regulatory Agency breaks down sales by medical and adult use, with medical sales down 50.2% year-over-year to $0.4 million, up 10.8% sequentially, and adult-use sales up 1.7% year-over-year to $269.3 million, up 3.8% sequentially.
The state breaks down sales by category and provides pricing details by category for both medical and adult;
For adultsMedical
As supply continues to expand, prices for adult flowers have plummeted. The average price of $932 a pound in December fell 2.6 percent sequentially to a new record low and fell 15.9 percent from a year earlier.
Michigan hemp sales are expected to grow 82.1% to $1.79 billion in 2021, 27.9% to $2.29 billion in 2022, and 33.3% to $3.06 billion in 2023. forward as supply becomes more accessible and distribution expands.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
The hemp industry ended 2025 with a slight decline. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which started at 100 at the end of 2012, has fallen 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th consecutive annual decline.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS ) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it’s down a lot since late 2020 when it was at $36.50. The 5-year yield at $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 85.2 percent, just shy of a recession.
So far in 2026, the global hemp stock index is unchanged. MSOS, which rose in December, fell 3.0% to $4.58. After last year’s big jump, investors probably aren’t too worried just yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t have, because the realignment is still in progress, and if it passes, it’s very incremental because of the elimination 280E tax. Of course, it remains to be seen whether a realignment will actually happen, and if so, when it will happen.
Investors or traders have rushed to MSOS over the past few years in hopes of a reshuffle. The lift in late December had massive volume, surpassing the volume in August when rumors of a possible realignment under Trump first surfaced. It was also heavier than when the MSOS fell after the last election in 2024. So far in 2026, volume has been fairly low, as seen in this six-month chart:
MSOS is still trading above the 12/11 price, as are most of its stocks. It’s also trading up more than 100% from near its all-time low of $2 set last year. To me, while the stock has fallen well from its recent peak, down 36.8% from its 12/18 intraday high, it looks like it could continue to decline. The recent downturn has not spurred buyers. In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I have very little exposure to MSOs compared to the Global Hemp Stock Index, just 6.6% in both MSOs compared to 25.9%.
The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I’ve discussed before: Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) at 67.7% MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a major debt challengeso far in 2026, it has fallen by 1.4% and moved from the second largest position to the third. Trulieve, the current largest holding, fell 5.6%, while GTI, now the second largest, rose 2.0%. MSOS has not purchased or sold shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.
I have watched MSOS since its day 1 which was in late 2020. Although I was and continue to be highly critical of the way it was run, I commended them for their early efforts. Unfortunately, there are no cannabis investment funds, including ETFs, that come close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share count dramatically over the past year, despite a recent small drawdown. Investors should understand that if it hits redemptions, it could put pressure on the MSO subsector and the price of MSOS.
It is very possible that hemp will be reclassified with the end of 280E taxation. It is also possible that large MSOs will not have to pay past 280E taxes that they did not pay. If 280E goes away and the previous liabilities go away, it will be very positive for MSOs and it will likely eliminate potential MSOS repayments. Of course, if 280E holds, traders stacked in MSOS will have trouble finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of the 280E.
I continue to recommend that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times, as well as recently, that hemp REITs make more senseand I have a lot of exposure to both of them in my modeling portfolio. There are other supporting names that should have upside if the 280E goes away for their customers, but less downside if it stays. Canadian LPs might also make sense. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to suggest that it will.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
