You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
There hasn’t been much cannabis news this week, but what we did learn was kind of surprising. Cannabist, which sold one of its Virginia businesses to Verano for $90 million in 2024, announced the sale of its remaining Virginia assets to Curaleaf. Cannabist’s press release disclosed the price, while Curaleaf did not. Cannabist rallied and sold off and is now down 13.9% this week and down 39.9% year to date. The company is extremely difficult, in my opinion, and doesn’t really hold much value for investors given its low market cap and small trading volumes. Creditors are the ones who care.
Curaleaf, on the other hand, rallied on Wednesday after pulling back on Tuesday after announcing a pending $110 million buyout. It’s up 6.9% this week and is set to rise 56.4% in 2025. This is much better than the Global Hemp Stock Index, which is down 11.5% year-to-date at 6.09. MSOS, which carries most of Curaleaf, is down 3.2% in 2025.
I downgraded Curaleaf to Strong Sell at Seeking Alpha in April when it was $0.98 and yesterday it closed at $2.44. I remain very bearish on stocks and today I share an updated outlook. The main problems I see are that the valuation is too high relative to peers, the company has huge debt and MSOS has a lot.
Curaleaf’s rating is high compared to peers
While the current value of 7.8X projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 may seem low, it is a large premium to its peers;
Curaleaf outperformed the major MSOs in 2025, driving this high relative valuation;
Curaleaf’s balance sheet is poor
The balance sheet is bad and getting worse. Net debt was $436 million at the end of 3Q, but most of the debt is due at the end of 2026, an amount that far outweighs cash. Management said on a conference call that it will replace it soon. That debt is currently realized at 8 percent cost. The company reported a current ratio of 1.5X. but that large debt due in 2026 will become current instead of long-term at the end of Q4 and this ratio will drop to 0.6X. The Virginia purchase would reduce it further.
Of course, the company can roll over the debt, but lenders should consider negative tangible equity as of Q3 of $853.6 million. This includes huge tax liabilities of $759 million. It is possible that the company will get a new loan, but investors should expect the interest rate to be potentially higher than the current 8%. The company may also sell some shares.
MSOS owns a lot of Curaleaf
MSOS controls 74.47 million shares of Curaleaf, its largest position. The Curaleaf has a thin flame compared to its peers and this further reduces it. Curaeaf’s shares are 678 million, so MSOS’s stake is more than 10% of the company’s outstanding subordinated shares, which trade over the counter in the US and on the TSX in Canada. I add the multiple voting shares as well as the RSUs and PSUs and some cash options to get a total stock dilution of 803 million, so MSOS has a 9.3% stake in the company.
If MSOS receives repayments again, it will likely need to sell more Curaleaf. Most investors remember the large number of ETF shares that redeemed in late 2022 and 2023. There were further redemptions in early 2025 and then again in November, when the number of shares fell 2%. Yesterday, shares fell by 0.5% due to another redemption. Despite this decline, the number of shares expanded by 41% in 2025. Curaleaf shares controlled by MSOS are up 54% year over year, compared to 32% for Trulieve and 2% for GTI. Curaleaf now holds the largest position at 26.7%, while Trulieve has 21.6% and Green Thumb Industries has 21.3%.
When MSOS received redemptions in November, it reduced Curaleaf shares it controlled by 2%, and then again yesterday. If the ETF receives more redemptions, it will likely sell more CURLF. This could be a problem if the ETF receives redemptions after bad news regarding 280E taxation emerges, as there are fewer buyers in that scenario.
Conclusion
Curaleaf traded at $0.84 on June 30 and rose to $2.04 on August 8, just ahead of the potential restructuring news. It’s unclear to me why Curaleaf is doing so well compared to its peers and other cannabis stocks. Cannabis stocks have been very volatile. Two that I have not liked at all over the past few years, Canopy Growth and Tilray Brands, have fallen so much and sold off the stock so much that I am now neutral on both. The demise of the 280E, if it happens, would be great for Curaleaf, but there are others that would benefit greatly as well. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
New Cannabis Ventures offers readers this easy-to-read exclusive summary of BDSA’s 15-state monthly cannabis sales data.
In January, cannabis sales decreased sequentially by 3.1%. In this review, we break down the results by state, starting with the western markets and then ending with the eastern markets. Overall, the BDSA estimates sales in 15 markets totaled $2.07 billion in January, up 4.6 percent from a year earlier. BDSA updated its Illinois numbers after the state recently changed the way it counts sales.
Western markets
BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. In December, annual growth was negative in 4 states. Growth in each of these states fell in succession.
Eastern markets
BDSA provides coverage for Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Annual growth in December ranged from -3.1% in Missouri to +37.6% in New York. Ohio began using adults in August, spurring growth. Note that Florida and Pennsylvania are medical markets only. On a daily basis, sequential gains declined in eight markets. Annual growth was negative in both markets and sharp in both states. We warned of a potential slowdown in Florida despite strong dispensary and unit volume growth due to competitive pressure.
For readers interested in a deeper look hemp markets in these fifteen states and more, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and product details, longer history and segmentation by product attributes, learn how BDSA Solutions can give you access to actionable data and analytics.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Illinois released sales figures for two months on Friday. The last time it released the data in November, the state did a major review of historical sales after a long delay, and it was updated to October. The previous report was for Cannabis for adults in May. The November document explained that the lack of data was due to the Metrc transition. “Sales tracking features in Metrc help retailers more accurately and reliably report actual sales, including all discounts and promotions at checkout. A careful review of past data shows that some initial discount prices were collected in previous months.” Here is the updated data until the end of 2025.
Statewide adult cannabis sales rose 5.6% sequentially to $116.6 million in December, up 2.2% on the day. Year-on-year growth was -23.9%, a slight improvement from November’s -26.1% growth. Here is a chart of adult sales over time:
After growing 106% in 2021, 13% in 2022 and 5% in 2023, annual sales for adults are set to grow 5.4% to $1.72 billion in 2024. In 2025, they decreased by 12.5% to $1.51 billion, which was lower than the total in 2022.
There hasn’t been an update from the state on medical cannabis in a while. The state exempts the sale separately from its medical plan, and April issue showed that sales fell 1.6% sequentially to $19.7 million, down 13.2% year over year.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
This week, Scotts Miracle-Gro, the largest stock in the Global Hemp Stock Index by market capitalization, announced that it has found a buyer for its Hawthorne Gardening Company business in Vireo Growth. This news first appeared in an online article published by the Wall Street Journaland then Vireo issued a press release like Scotts Miracle-Gro, which also reported in its fiscal 1st quarter.
The deal is not a done deal. Vireo called it a “non-binding memorandum of understanding” but did not discuss the terms of the deal or when it might close. Scotts Miracle-Gro, which had already told investors it was working on this type of deal, did not disclose Hawthorne’s financial results for the 1st quarter. Analysts didn’t really ask any questions about it during the conference. The WSJ article said Vireo is giving Scotts Miracle-Gro 13% of its stock in return, but neither company has disclosed that in their press releases or SEC filings.
I include SMG in my 420 Investor Focus List, but Vireo is not a member of that group. Vireo also failed to qualify for the Global Cannabis Stock Index due to its low trading volumes. As I detailed five weeks ago, The Vireo has grown very large in terms of revenue and its geographic focus. The stock was then at $0.625 and is now lower, closing at $0.55. On Christmas Eve, the decline was 12.0%, while the MSOS fell 10.1%.
Maybe investors are interested in this deal and I’m not. First, it’s not a done deal. Second, to purchase Hawthorne, the investor must assume 280E taxation risk. Third, the price seems high, as 13% of the company is worth about $75 million. Fourth, it’s not clear to me that marrying a hemp operator with a subsidiary makes sense as I recall TILT Holdings.
I have followed Hawthorne Gardening for a long time and am glad that CEO Hagedorn and his team have gone ahead and purchased it and expanded it. The hemp industry has been struggling for about five years, and the big drop in Hawthorne Gardening’s revenue is not SMG’s fault in my opinion. It’s not clear to me how Vireo Growth will make it a better action, but I hope it has a good plan.
I continue to believe that investors should pay close attention to what is happening with shares in Vireo. This potential acquisition was not something that was discussed by analysts or investors, but today’s volume of 277 thousand shares was very low. Once again, Vireo, thanks to its aggressive M&A activity, has become the 7th largest MSO in the NCV Revenue Tracker. It remains very troubling to me that stocks are not earning a lot of interest.
Sincerely,
Alan:
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
