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Supply and Demand Curves Starting to Become Efficient in California as Thousands of Cannabis Growers Call It Quits

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The struggles that California’s cannabis companies have been grappling with have been no secret. Still, it wasn’t until this year that a noticeable decline in the legal marijuana market started to unfold. According to permit statistics from the California Department of Cannabis Control, the market has shrunk by approximately 29%.

 

As of October 24, the state had only 9,900 active business licenses, marking a 28.5% decrease since July 2022, when there were 12,719 active provisional and annual cannabis business licenses, as reported by the DCC.

What Does the Stat Says

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the state’s marijuana market exhibited robust growth, benefiting from stay-at-home orders and emergency financial assistance. In July 2021, the California Department of Cannabis Control (DCC) reported 11,335 active business licenses. Over the subsequent year, the market expanded by more than 12%.

 

The most significant changes were observed in the cultivation sector. In July 2021, there were 7,897 active marijuana cultivation permits, which increased to 8,453 within a year but subsequently dropped to 5,727 as of October 24 this year.

 

The manufacturing and distribution sectors also experienced substantial fluctuations. In July 2021, there were 877 cannabis manufacturers, and this number grew to 911 over the next 12 months before decreasing to 768 this month. Among distributors, there were 1,168 in July 2021, 1,448 in July 2022, and only 1,297 this month.

 

However, not all sectors have experienced a similar level of decline. The retail, delivery, and microbusiness permit categories have steadily grown over the past two years. Nonetheless, industry insiders suggest that the opening of new stores has been counterbalancing the closure of many well-established shops in oversaturated cities.

 

Recent examples of closures include Liberty Cannabis-owned shops in both San Francisco and Los Angeles, as highlighted by marijuana consultant Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy. Additionally, several multistate operators, such as Florida-based Trulieve Cannabis Corp. and Arizona-based 4Front Ventures Corp., have exited the California market. This is due to the challenging market conditions, a move echoed by numerous smaller companies and brands.

 

Despite the challenging trends, retail storefront permits showed remarkable resilience. In July 2021, they numbered 774, then surged to 1,056 a year later, and as of this month, they have reached 1,229, according to the DCC.

 

Delivery licenses, on the other hand, were at 322 in July 2021, increased to 475 in July 2022, and have since stabilized at around 477. Microbusiness permits, which often include retail operations, were at 297 in July 2021, grew to 376 within a year, and currently stand at 402.

Struggles To Pay Tax

 

The California cannabis industry is teetering on the edge of what some are calling an “extinction event” as cannabis shops struggle to stay afloat, grappling with missed tax payments and drowning in millions of dollars of debt.

 

Debt troubles have haunted the industry for years, with a 2022 report estimating that the collective debt burden exceeded $600 million. Nevertheless, a recent alteration in tax regulations, which took effect this year, has prompted stakeholders to worry that the burgeoning debt crisis could potentially culminate in a severe disaster.

 

In reaction to these apprehensions, a San Francisco lawmaker proposed a bill in the state legislature to enforce stricter measures on cannabis businesses that cannot fulfill their debt responsibilities.

 

A significant shift in state law has shifted the responsibility for paying cannabis excise taxes from distributors to retailers. Historically, retailers have faced the most challenges in meeting their financial obligations, and recent state tax data obtained by SFGATE indicates that many shops lack the necessary funds to cover their state excise taxes.

 

More than 13% of California’s retailers, equivalent to 265 cannabis dispensaries, did not remit any tax payments, as reported by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. These businesses are now confronting a 50% penalty on their outstanding tax obligations, a financial blow that could prove fatal for many shops.

 

Furthermore, the number of affected shops could potentially increase. The state agency has revealed that it is still handling 581 tax returns, which may include retailers that failed to meet their payment obligations.

 

According to Michelle Mabugat, a cannabis attorney at the Greenberg Glusker firm in Los Angeles, the debt-related challenges are likely to force the closure of numerous shops in the state. She remarked that there’s been a mounting debt bubble over the past few years, reaching a breaking point. She anticipates many retailers going out of business this year, much like we witnessed with cultivators last year.”

 

Ali Jamalian, the owner of Sunset Connect, a cannabis manufacturer based in San Francisco, has observed pot shops with outstanding bills exceeding $500,000. He foresees the new tax structure triggering what he terms an “extinction event” for cannabis retailers in the state.

The persistent issue of debt has plagued the entire cannabis supply chain. Farmers have voiced concerns about not receiving payment for significant amounts of their products. Distributors have raised issues about non-payment by retailers and have resorted to blacklisting certain shops.

 

Furthermore, even the federal government has encountered payment issues. An analysis conducted last autumn by Green Market Report revealed that the ten largest cannabis companies in the country collectively owed over $500 million in unpaid taxes.

 

These financially strained retailers are now facing the possibility of closure due to the recent alteration in the state’s tax payment process. The state’s decision to transfer the responsibility for tax payments from distributors to retailers not only eliminated a source of financing (as retailers had been using excise tax collections to fund their operations) but also imposed a substantial penalty on cash-strapped retailers.

Conclusion

The California cannabis industry has faced significant challenges, with a 29% decline in active business licenses since July 2022. Despite growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, the cultivation sector saw fluctuations, and some multistate operators left the market due to its difficulty. However, the retail, delivery, and microbusiness sectors continued to grow, partly thanks to new store openings.

 

The shift in tax legislation, placing a heavier burden on retailers for paying excise taxes, has further strained the industry, with many retailers failing to meet their obligations. The industry’s future hinges on its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and proposed legislative solutions.

 

CALI WEED COMPANIES CAN’T PAY THEIR BILLS, READ ON…

DOPE DEADBEAT CANNABIS COMPANIES

DEADBEAT CANNABIS COMPANIES NOT PAYING THEIR BILLS IN CALI?



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HHC vs. Delta 9: Differences & Similarities

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Cannabis has so many compounds, and two that have been making the rounds lately are HHC and Delta 9 THC. They’re not the same thing, even though they’re both cannabinoids that interact with the body’s endocannabinoid system. Some people want a mild, steady experience, while others might be looking for something more intense. Understanding these two can help you figure out what’s right for you.

What Is HHC?

HHC, short for hexahydrocannabinol, is a hydrogenated version of THC. It’s not something you’d find naturally in large amounts in cannabis plants. Instead, it’s made through a process that adds hydrogen molecules to THC. The result? A more stable compound that’s less prone to breaking down when exposed to heat or UV light.

How HHC Is Made

Think of it like a science experiment. HHC is usually created in a lab by taking Delta 9 or Delta 8 THC and using hydrogenation—basically, combining it with hydrogen under pressure and in the presence of a catalyst. This process changes its structure while keeping its effects somewhat similar to THC.

Common Uses and Effects of HHC

People who use HHC say it’s somewhere between Delta 8 and Delta 9 in terms of effects. It’s often described as relaxing but without being overly sedative. You might feel a light buzz, reduced stress, or mild euphoria. Some even claim it helps with discomfort or improving sleep, but solid research is still catching up. Since it’s less potent than Delta 9, it’s often favored by those who want a manageable experience without the strong psychoactive punch.

If you’re interested in trying HHC and Delta 9 for yourself, check out their wide range of products at trycandycloud.com. They’ve got everything from gummies to disposable vapes, all crafted for a smooth experience.

What Is Delta 9 THC?

Delta 9 THC is the main psychoactive compound in cannabis. It’s the reason you feel “high” when you use weed. Chemically speaking, Delta 9 has a double bond in its ninth carbon chain, which plays a big role in how it interacts with your brain.

Natural Occurrence in Cannabis

This one is straightforward: Delta 9 is found in high concentrations in marijuana plants. It’s what most people think of when they hear “THC.” Unlike HHC, there’s no need for a lab process—it’s already there. Hemp plants, however, contain much lower levels of Delta 9 THC, which is why it’s primarily extracted from marijuana.

Common Uses and Effects of Delta 9 THC

The effects of Delta 9 are well-documented. Depending on the dose, you might feel euphoria, increased appetite, or deep relaxation. For medical users, it’s often used to manage chronic pain, nausea, and other conditions. It’s also been studied for its potential benefits in anxiety relief, though higher doses might have the opposite effect, causing paranoia. Delta 9 THC is versatile, but it’s not without its risks, particularly for new users or those sensitive to its psychoactive effects.

Key Differences Between HHC and Delta 9 THC

Chemical Structure and Composition

The main difference is in their structure. Delta 9 THC has that iconic double bond, while HHC’s hydrogenation makes it more stable. This difference might not mean much to the average person, but it’s why HHC is less likely to degrade over time.

Potency Levels

Delta 9 THC is generally more potent. HHC might require a higher dose to get a comparable effect, but some people prefer its lighter touch. Potency differences can also depend on the method of consumption, with edibles typically providing a stronger, longer-lasting effect compared to vaping or smoking.

Duration of Effects

Both last a few hours, but some users report that HHC’s effects fade more gradually. Delta 9, on the other hand, can have a sharper comedown. HHC’s gradual fade makes it appealing for those who want a smooth end to their experience.

Benefits and Drawbacks of HHC and Delta 9 THC

HHC: Pros and Cons

Pros:

  • More stable, so it lasts longer on the shelf.
  • Effects are milder, making it less overwhelming for beginners.
  • Can be a functional option for daytime use.

Cons:

  • Limited research, so we don’t know its full impact yet.
  • Availability can be hit or miss depending on where you live.
  • Legal gray area in many regions.

Delta 9 THC: Pros and Cons

Pros:

  • Well-studied with established medical uses.
  • Widely available in areas where cannabis is legal.
  • Stronger effects make it ideal for experienced users or those with high tolerance.

Cons:

  • Higher chance of side effects like anxiety.
  • More likely to show up on drug tests.
  • Shorter shelf life compared to HHC.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Is HHC safer than Delta 9 THC?

Not enough research exists to say definitively, but HHC’s milder effects might make it feel safer to some users.

Q. Will HHC or Delta 9 THC show up on a drug test?

Yes, both can potentially show up on a drug test, so use with caution if that’s a concern.

Q. Which one is better for recreational use?

That depends on your preferences. HHC is great for a mellow time, while Delta 9 is better if you’re looking for something more intense.

HHC vs. Delta 9: Choosing the Right One for You

The choice comes down to what you’re after. If you want a milder, more laid-back experience, HHC might be a good option. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something stronger or need it for medical reasons, Delta 9 is the way to go. It also depends on what’s legal and available where you are. And always consider your tolerance levels and experience before diving in. If you’re unsure, consult with a knowledgeable dispensary staff.

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What Federally Illegal Drug Has Created Almost $10 Billion in Sales Tax Revenue for States in the Last 40 Months?

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In a significant development for the burgeoning cannabis industry, the U.S. Census Bureau has reported that states across the nation have collectively amassed over **$9.7 billion** in tax revenue from marijuana sales since mid-2021. This figure underscores the economic impact of legalized cannabis and highlights the growing acceptance of marijuana as both a recreational and medicinal substance in various states. As more states move toward legalization, the financial implications both positive and negative are becoming increasingly evident.

 

 The Landscape of Cannabis Legalization

 

The journey toward cannabis legalization in the United States has been long and complex. Initially criminalized in the early 20th century, cannabis began to regain acceptance in the late 20th century, particularly for medical use. The first state to legalize medical marijuana was California in 1996, setting a precedent that many states would follow.

 

By 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize recreational cannabis, paving the way for a wave of legalization efforts across the country. As of now, more than 20 states have legalized recreational marijuana, while over 30 states allow medical use. This shift reflects changing public attitudes toward cannabis and recognition of its potential benefits.

 

Economic Implications of Legalization

 

The legalization of cannabis has not only transformed social norms but has also created a substantial economic impact. States that have embraced legalization have seen significant increases in tax revenue, job creation, and investment opportunities.

 

According to the latest Census Bureau report, states like California, Colorado, Illinois, and Michigan have emerged as leaders in cannabis tax revenue generation. These states have implemented various tax structures on marijuana sales, including excise taxes, sales taxes, and local taxes. The revenue generated is often earmarked for essential public services such as education, healthcare, infrastructure improvements, and drug rehabilitation programs.

 

Breakdown of Tax Revenue by State

 

 

As the largest legal cannabis market in the United States, California has been at the forefront of marijuana tax revenue generation. Since mid-2021, California has contributed approximately $2.5 billion to state coffers from cannabis taxes. This revenue is derived from both recreational and medical marijuana sales.

 

California’s tax structure includes a 15% excise tax on retail sales, along with local taxes that can vary significantly by city and county. The state has allocated a portion of these funds to various programs aimed at addressing issues related to drug abuse and public health.

 

 

Colorado was one of the pioneers in cannabis legalization and continues to serve as a model for other states. Since mid-2021, Colorado has generated around $1.8 billion in tax revenue from marijuana sales. The state imposes a 15% excise tax on wholesale marijuana transactions and a 2.9% sales tax on retail sales.

 

The revenue generated from cannabis taxes has been instrumental in funding education initiatives through the Public School Fund, as well as supporting mental health programs and substance abuse treatment services.

 

 

Illinois has seen remarkable growth in its cannabis market since legalizing recreational use in January 2020. In just two years, Illinois has collected approximately $1 billion in tax revenue from marijuana sales. The state imposes a tiered excise tax based on the potency of the product, ranging from 10% to 25%.

 

The funds collected are allocated to various initiatives, including community reinvestment programs aimed at addressing social equity issues related to past drug enforcement practices.

 

 

Michigan’s cannabis market has also flourished since legalization. Since mid-2021, Michigan has generated about $700 million in tax revenue from marijuana sales. The state’s tax structure includes a 10% excise tax on recreational marijuana and a 6% sales tax.

 

The revenue is utilized for various purposes, including education funding and support for local governments impacted by legalization.

 

Broader Economic Impact

 

 

The legalization of cannabis has led to significant job creation across various sectors. According to industry reports, the legal cannabis market supports hundreds of thousands of jobs nationwide—from cultivation and processing to retail and distribution. As more states legalize marijuana, this trend is expected to continue.

 

 

With the growth of the legal cannabis industry comes increased investment opportunities. Entrepreneurs are entering the market at an unprecedented rate, leading to innovations in product development, marketing strategies, and distribution channels. This influx of investment not only benefits individual businesses but also stimulates local economies.

 

Social Equity Considerations

 

While the financial benefits of cannabis legalization are clear, it is essential to address social equity issues that arise alongside this new industry. Many states have recognized that communities disproportionately affected by past drug enforcement policies should benefit from legalization efforts.

 

 

States like Illinois have implemented community reinvestment programs that allocate a portion of cannabis tax revenues to support communities impacted by previous drug laws. These funds can be used for education initiatives, job training programs, and mental health services—aiming to rectify historical injustices associated with cannabis prohibition.

 

 

In addition to financial support for communities affected by past policies, some states are also working to create equitable licensing opportunities for individuals from those communities. By prioritizing applications from minority-owned businesses or those directly impacted by previous drug laws, states can foster a more inclusive cannabis industry.

 

 Challenges Ahead

 

Despite the significant progress made through legalization efforts, challenges remain on both state and federal levels.

 

Federal Legalization Uncertainty

 

One major hurdle is the ongoing conflict between state and federal laws regarding cannabis. While many states have legalized marijuana for recreational or medical use, it remains classified as a Schedule I substance under federal law. This discrepancy creates complications for businesses operating legally at the state level but facing potential federal prosecution.

 

Efforts toward federal legalization or decriminalization have gained traction recently; however, progress remains slow due to political divisions and differing opinions on drug policy reform.

 

Regulatory Hurdles

 

As more states enter the legal cannabis market, regulatory frameworks must evolve to ensure consumer safety while promoting fair competition among businesses. States face challenges related to product testing standards, labeling requirements, advertising restrictions, and taxation policies that can impact market dynamics.

 

Conclusion

 

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that states have collected over $9.7 billion in marijuana tax revenue since mid-2021, highlighting the significant economic impact of cannabis legalization. As public acceptance grows, more states are likely to pursue legalization. Despite ongoing challenges, including federal regulations and social equity issues, legalized cannabis is poised to remain a vital part of state economies. Collaboration among government officials, business leaders, and community advocates will be essential for fostering an equitable and sustainable cannabis industry. This evolving landscape not only presents economic growth opportunities but also addresses historical injustices tied to drug policy enforcement, shaping the future of cannabis legislation in the U.S.

 

WHAT STATES HAVE THE HIGHEST WEED TAXES? READ ON…

MARIJUANA SALES TAX RATES

WHAT STATES HAVE THE HIGHEST MARIJUANA SALES TAXES?



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Oregon Cannabis: State of the State (2024)

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Welcome the ninth annual “State of the State” post on Oregon cannabis. I feel like an old man. As compared to 2023, things this year were pretty mellow. That’s not to say, however, that we don’t have trends, intrigues, controversies, mysteries, etc., worth writing about. Let’s dive right in.

Sales and market data

According to OLCC data, retail sales between January 1, 2024 and November 30, 2024 clocked in at $881 million. That is remarkably consistent with 2023, where we saw $874 million over the same 11-month span. If things remain steady for the next couple of weeks, Oregon should avoid a third consecutive drop in annual sales.

Prices are also relatively static. The median price per gram in the extract/concentrate category was $15.83/gram in November, floating from $15.36 to $16.00 throughout the year. For “usable marijuana”, which includes dried flowers and leaves, prices fluctuated from $3.89/gram to $3.57/gram last month.

October saw Oregon’s largest METRC harvest, ever, with 5,733,288 pounds reported. I’m sure the illicit market had a bumper year too; weather is the same for everyone and the enforcement paradigm is static. Anyway, the October numbers equal 900,000 more pounds than the same month in 2023. Consumers may benefit, but that can’t be great for pricing.

As far as what people are actually buying at OLCC shops:

  • 2% of purchases are for usable marijuana
  • 25% are extracts/concentrates
  • 7% are edibles/tinctures
  • 10% are “inhalable product with non-cannabis additives”
  • 4% is “other”; and
  • 6% is industrial hemp commodity products.

Yes, that equals 100%. In 2023, I noted a “years-long trend of usable marijuana sales decreasing per capital in favor of other categories.” The trend continued in 2024 (usable marijuana sales dropped another 2.5% year over year). Last year, I wrote that “my impression is that near-term growth may be limited to select SKUs and product categories.” Still feel that way.

Licenses and licensing

Our years-long OLCC licensing moratorium was made permanent in 2024 (more on that below). Overall, license numbers declined marginally across the board. Here’s a table showing current numbers as compared to 2023, which I wrote “was the first year I saw license numbers fall since the 2016 roll-out of the adult use program.”

2024 2023 Change
Producers 1,375 1,389 -14
Processors 288 312 -24
Wholesalers 257 269 -12
Retailers 789 818 -29
Labs 13 15 -2
Research 1 1 none

 

It’s good to see numbers dropping, I suppose. Most would agree that we have too many licenses across all categories– except perhaps for labs and research. Expect numbers to continue on a modest downward trend in 2025.

Industry limping along

In the last few State of the State posts, I’ve talked about businesses struggling. We’re still helping people sell or even walk away from things we helped them buy not long ago. In 2023, the big liquidation story was the Chalice receivership. In 2024, insolvency and cannabis receivership actions are still a regular occurrence. The largest of 2024 was the Tumalo receivership, which we structured here in the office, and which remains ongoing. We’re working on a few others as well: some are voluntary, and others, well, not so much.

Consolidation is still a fact of life in Oregon cannabis, with larger operators opportunistically picking up assets, mostly at retail. A majority of buy/sell transactions, however, seem to involve new market entrants and naked licenses. In these deals, a seller will relinquish its rights to an OLCC license in favor of a replacement license for the buyer— sometimes at the same location and sometimes in a new spot. Pricing on these transactions, which are styled as asset purchase agreements, has remained steady in each license class. That said, pricing can be negotiable.

Most of the bigger players are still around. A couple of people have asked me how that could be the case with a chain like La Mota, whose legal issues metastasized into a statewide controversy, and resulted in unwelcome tax compliance rules for OLCC retailers. The answer is simple: La Mota probably reached a deal on payment plan with the Department of Revenue. Elsewhere, we haven’t seen anything to convince us, one way or the other, that OLCC is making an effort to treat small businesses the same as the larger operators— a problem area we highlighted in 2023. That said, let’s see what happens with the labs.

OLCC chasing testing labs on THC inflation

On September 25th, OLCC sent enforcement notices to seven testing laboratories. I explained at the time that OLCC had:

Propos[ed] license cancellation in some cases and suspension or fines in others. The notices center on alleged THC inflation, and extend back to instances identified in 2023. We only have eleven labs in Oregon accredited to do this mandatory work, so OLCC chasing seven of them is a big deal.

This saga is still ongoing, and none of these cases are resolved to my knowledge. For considered and lawyerly reasons, I’ll reserve further comment on this one, beyond all that I’ve already said.

New OLCC rules and legislative changes

Various rules took effect in 2024, due to legislative changes this spring and an initiative vote in the fall. Here are the four biggest developments for me, in chronological order:

Licensing Moratorium

Oregon finally made its licensing moratorium permanent, when Governor Kotek signed House Bill 4121 on March 20, 2024. This means the only way to acquire a cannabis license in Oregon is to find someone willing to sell. That will likely be the case forever, based on unreachable “new license triggers” in HB 4121, and the fact that the legislature won’t reverse this new law.

Hemp Vendor License Requirement

This one took effect July 1. At that time, I wrote that the rule was “very broad and likely to catch people off guard.” That proved to be the case in my experience, including with respect to OLCC— I ended up writing them on September 30 after stumbling across incorrect FAQs on the topic. My guess is that a large number of Oregon businesses are still unaware of the license requirement, and therefore not compliant, and that it doesn’t really matter because enforcement is sparse or nonexistent.

Labor Peace Agreements

This one has been a scramble, with many licensees having to find a way to comply on short notice. The short story is that due to Ballot Measure 119, which passed in November, all OLCC licensed retailers, processors and labs must provide a signed labor peace agreement (LPA) with a bona fide labor organization, to renew or apply for an OLCC license. I still believe BM 119 is legally problematic, but someone needs to challenge it to obviate the LPA requirement.

Presumptive Hemp Testing Rules

The Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) issued a temporary administrative order following on HB 4121, which defines presumptive marijuana under its testing rules, outlines procedures for marijuana disposal, and outlines violations of ODA hemp licensure more generally.

__

We can expect to see more changes, as always, in 2025. OLCC is currently in rulemaking to implement HB 4121, to start. The 2025 legislative session next year is also a long one, lasting from January to June. I’ll write my usual session preview sometime in January, lest this post become extremely long. For now, the Cannabis Industry Alliance of Oregon (CIAO) has listed out is legislative priorities here.

Odds and ends

  • 2024 must have been a welcome reprieve for OLCC, which remained mostly out of the spotlight after a trying year in 2023.
  • Not much is going on with ODA and the hemp industry, beyond what I mentioned above.
  • Shout-out to CIAO, which was organized and effective in its first full year as Oregon’s consolidated, cannabis trade group.
  • Local cannabis banking is getting easier all the time. Most recently, we built out a cannabis banking program for Central Willamette Credit Union, the newest Oregon service provider.
  • I’m still pessimistic about a federal cannabis banking bill, but I’m hopeful for federal rescheduling. A move for marijuana to Schedule III would do away with punitive tax code provision IRC § 280E – hopefully in calendar year 2024. That development would immediately increase margins for Oregon cannabis businesses, across the board.
  • Also at the federal level, this was our last year with Earl Blumenauer, Congress’s greatest ever cannabis advocate.

Oregon cannabis: that’s a wrap

Let me know in the comments if you think I missed anything worth mentioning, or shoot me an email. There is always something. In the meantime, here’s hoping for smooth sailing for Oregon cannabis in 2025.

For previous posts in this series, check out the following:



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