You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.

Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.

Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.

Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.

I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.

Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf

We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.

Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.

As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks increase in December, but end 2025 and decrease again

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. The index fell 7.5% in December last year to close 15.2% lower for the year, and it was also a poor start to 2025. It hit a new all-time high of 4.97 on the last day of March, before falling back in early April. The index gained 11.5% in April, but ended the second quarter from there, closing at 5.02. Q3 was strong with increases in July and August, and September, which started with a pullback, ended with another increase before pulling back on the last day. The index ended September down just a little, before falling in October and even lower in November. It rose sharply in December, rising 8.4% to 6.59. While stocks rose, 13 of the index’s 28 names declined for the month.

After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 28 members, fell 27% year-to-date in June. After a 53.0 percent rally in the third quarter, the index increased by 11.6 percent compared to last year. It fell 14.2% in the 4th quarter and was down 4.2% for the full year.

Since its peak in February 2021, the global hemp stock index is down 92.9% from a closing high of 92.48.

The 3 strongest names in December, each an MSO, are all up more than 58%;

Each of these stocks were significantly up year-over-year, and Q4 earnings were positive for Trulieve.

December’s 3 weakest names are all down more than 8%;

All of these stocks were down year-over-year, and Q4 was brutal for each.

The index has been recalculated as of the close of 12/31/31 and is based on data as of 12/23/23. For Q1, the index will have 27 names, down from 28 names, with three removals and two additions. AFCG, LIEN and SHFS are excluded from the index. Akanda (AKAN) and cbdMD (YCBD) are rejoining the index.

We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indexes that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain: the American Cannabis Operator Index, the Ancillary Cannabis Index, and the Canadian Cannabis LP Index.

American Hemp Operator Index

ACOI rallied in December, rising 43.7% to 13.18. It rose 123.6% to 12.99 in the third quarter and ended the year up 57.7% year to date from 8.36. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) was a big laggard, up 23.9%.

December’s strongest stock was Trulieve, which gained 61.2%. The weakest, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ), rose 10.4%.

In January, the index will have eleven members, with the additions of Ascend Wellness (OTC: AAWH ), Grown Rogue (GRUSF ), and Vireo Health (OTC: VREOF ).

Auxiliary cannabis index

Ancillary commodities rose 2.4% in December as the index reached 11.09. The index, which rose 14.5% to 12.72 in the third quarter, fell 12.8% in the fourth quarter. It decreased by 19.5% from 13.77 in 2025.

The strongest performing stock in December was NewLake Capital (OTC: NLCP ), which rose 24.1%. The weakest, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (NASDAQ: REFI ), fell 3.9%.

In January, the index will have the same eight members and two that are returning: iPower (NASDAQ: IPW ) and Chicago Atlantic BDC (NASDAQ: LIEN ).

Canadian Hemp LP Index

Canadian LPs rose 5.4% in December as the index fell to 59.01. The index, which increased by 78.4% in the third quarter, reaching 73.56. Declined 19.8% in Q4, but rose 17.8% in 2025 from 50.11.

The strongest Canadian LP in December was MTL Cannabis (CSE: MTL ), which jumped 62.5% after receiving a buy order. The weakest performer was Aurora Cannabis, down 10.3%.

In January, the index will have the same thirteen members.

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

About three months ago, this newsletter talked about cannabis stock traders care a lot about MSOs again, but that they weren’t paying attention to an older MSO that was in the process of getting much bigger, Vireo Growth. As I mentioned at the time, despite its very large size, Vireo Growth failed to join the Global Cannabis Stock Index due to its low trading volume. Yesterday I went through the quarterly rebalancing process for the upcoming new quarter, which starts seven days from the close of trade, and Vireo still doesn’t qualify. The price then topped the low of $0.50 at $0.5682, but the stock has traded an average of just 221,000 shares per day over the past month. The dollar volume is about $100,000, which is well below the required minimum.

I shared that there weren’t many analysts following Vireo three months ago, and that remains the case. The Vireo Growth website has no analysts listed on it analyst coverage pageSeeking Alpha shares analyst estimates, noting that there is one analyst. I use a system, Koyfin, and it has the same ratings. As I mentioned, Zuanic & Associates does cover the stock, but I don’t think its ratings are included in the consensus. It expects Vireo’s revenue to grow to $436 million in 2026 from $259.9 million in 2025, according to a report in mid-November.

Since then, the company has announced two pending transactions and purchased a large number of senior convertible debt Schwazze at a discounted price. This month, the company said it was buying some assets PharmaCann: in Colorado and that it goes to Eaze to enter California and Florida. Vireo is very active in consolidating the cannabis industry. A year ago, the company was located in Minnesota, which was used for adults, and Maryland, and it had a failed business in New York. Its Q3 report reflected acquisitions in Missouri, Nevada and Utah. Total revenue of $91.7 million includes $12.0 million in Minnesota, $10.4 million in Maryland, $6.1 million in New York (mostly wholesale) and $63.2 million from new states. The Vireo is up NCV revenue ratingReaching #7 among MSOs with positive operating income in the third quarter;

While Vireo Growth is No. 7 among MSOs by revenue, it is No. 11 in the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ), which has a holding of just 0.6% of the fund. The 9.51 million shares controlled by MSOS are down from last week as the ETF faced some redemptions, but it’s still well up from 6.9 million shares at midyear and 6.7 million at the end of 2024. At the end of June, the share was 1.0% of the ETF, so it’s down. The top three positions represent an average of 22.4% MSOS each, which is 36X greater than the VREOF position. This is not at all consistent with its market share or market cap.

Vireo Growth made a very large capital raise in late 2024, selling $81 million a share at $0.625, and it recently traded below that level and closed there today. It issued a lot of shares to cover its acquisitions. In fact, the company reports more than 1 billion shares outstanding. The stock ended 2024 at $0.56, so it’s up 11.6% this year. This compares with the Global Hemp Stock Index at 6.92, up 0.6%, and MSOS returning 24.7%.

I think cannabis investors should keep a close eye on Vireo stock for a sign of the health of the overall cannabis sector. At 420 Investor, I include 19 hemp stocks in my Focus List, and this group does not include Vireo Growth. I keep an eye on it though because it is part of a group of 7 stocks that I have on my stock watchlist to potentially add to the Focus List. While it is not in the index, the other six are or will be in a week.

I wish the best for Vireo Growth and a Merry Christmas to all New Cannabis Ventures readers.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Canadian hemp sales sank in October in B.C

M&A:

Vireo bought Eaze for $47 million in stock

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El