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We are forecasting 2026 legal revenues to be $30.5 billion, an increase of 4.9% since 2025

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Whitney Economics (WE), a global leader in cannabis and hemp business consulting, data and economic research, today announced the release of its US cannabis revenue forecast for the period 2025 – 2030.

“We forecast legal revenue to reach $30.5 billion by 2026, a 4.9% increase from 2025,” said WE Founder and Chief Economist Beau Whitney. “This is a welcome change from just one year ago, when the US legal cannabis market experienced its first year-over-year revenue decline in the history of the legalized market.”

That decline, Whitney said, would have been worse nationally had it not been for strong growth in New York and Ohio, where consumers gained greater retail access to cannabis products. Although unit volumes and legal share rates remained strong, supply saturation resulted in price compression and reduced overall revenue in the U.S. “Growth rates are still positive, not as much as in previous years, when we forecast 13.4% growth by 2026,” he said.

In addition, price deflation has again reduced near- and medium-term sales expectations, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 down from last year. “Whitney Economics’ forecast accuracy has always been in the mid-to-high 90% range, so when it dropped to 85% in 2025, we knew we had to update our models,” Whitney said. “Accounting for price compression was a major part of this adjustment.”

In the past, the key driver for predicting cannabis retail revenue was spending multiplied by the number of consumers. However, with price compression becoming a major factor in the US cannabis market, forecasts must account for market deflation, and WE has updated its model to include price declines.

Whitney’s prediction is that cannabis consumer behavior has changed significantly since the end of the Covid-19 era, with consumers spending essentially the same amount each month. Cannabis spending patterns underwent a major shift in 2023 and 2024, with cannabis spending now beginning to reflect broader consumption patterns.

“In times of uncertainty and higher inflation, consumers are no longer adding to their carts; instead, they are buying only what they need and saving on other cannabis-related purchases,” Whitney said. “As a result of this change, for the first time, price compression has become a major variable in the cannabis forecast equation.”

Since 2014, when Washington and Colorado states rolled out the first state-based adult cannabis regulation programs, the growth of individual markets, fueled by an influx of legal consumers, has overshadowed any price compression taking place. Market growth outpaced the impact of price declines. However, as markets began to mature and the pace of consumer conversion to the legal market slowed, price compression had a greater impact on market growth.

“We’re approaching the point where the growth rates of legal share are slowing while price declines have accelerated,” Whitney said. “Consequently, price compression will play an important role in advancing market value. This is a sign of market maturity.”

With the level of price compression and its suppressive effect on market growth, states must factor this into their tax revenue projections, which are expected to decline. States can no longer expect to raise taxes to make up for lost revenue because those increases will reduce demand, just like in any other industry, Whitney said.

Despite the importance of price compression, US cannabis revenue projections still point to growth for the remainder of the decade. But given the falling prices, legislators and regulators will be forced to encourage consumers to participate in the legal market; otherwise, retail and tax revenues will continue to decline.

“Perhaps this will lead to a move away from the marijuana dispensary model and opening up sales through other distribution channels, such as grocery stores and big box retailers,” Whitney said. “The US market is at a crossroads where the market is normalizing and no longer experiencing exponential growth. Single-digit growth will become the norm moving forward.”

For more information:
Whitney Economics
Beau Whitney
(503) 724-3084
www.whitneyeconomics.com

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Concert Series Specials launched for state medical cannabis patients

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Post Dispensary, Kentucky’s first medical cannabis dispensary, is connecting with patients in Owensboro, Henderson, Bowling Green, Elizabethtown, Madisonville, Hopkinsville and surrounding areas by aligning unique specials with the region’s summer concert calendar. Located at 300 N Main St. in Beaver Dam, minutes from major highways connecting these vibrant cities.

This summer, The Post Dispensary is offering special pricing and incentives for Concert Series Events at the Beaver Dam Amphitheater, SPARKS in the Park 4th of July celebration and surrounding events, such as Owensboro’s ROMP Festival (June 24-27, 2026). Patients can stop by before or after shows for big savings.

“We’re more than just a booty,” said a dispensary representative. “From Owensboro’s world-class ROMP Festival to Beaver Dam’s Amphitheater events, we’re making it convenient and budget-friendly for patients in Owensboro, Henderson, Bowling Green, Elizabethtown, Hartford and beyond to combine our love of music with compassionate care and an affordable product.”

The Post Dispensary hosts regular Patient Guidance events on the second Saturday of every month. These units have professionals on hand to assess patients and issue written certificates at low cost, application support and expert consultations in a welcoming environment. The next Patient Drive aligns perfectly with summer travel patterns, making it easy for patients from Owensboro, Bowling Green, Elizabethtown, Madisonville, Henderson, Madisonville and surrounding towns to plan a trip to Beaver Dam that combines care with community and entertainment.

For more information:
Post-Dispensary
thepostdispensary.com/










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Missouri GOP Lawmakers Hope Trump’s Psychedelics Order Boosts Efforts To Allow Military Veteran Access In The State

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“Congratulations to President Trump for stepping up and taking the lead on this. PTSD is a killer among veterans.”

By Rebecca Rivas, Missouri Independent

Missouri state representative Dave Griffith has spent the past five years researching how psychedelic-assisted therapy has helped veterans struggling with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression.

His last legislative session in the House ended this May, and he pushed legislation for the last time allow clinical trials of psychedelic-assisted therapy in Missouri. In the final days of the session, the bill stalled in the Missouri Senate after passing the House with overwhelming support.

“I’m not going to be there next year, I’m term-limited,” said Griffith, a Republican who served as chairman of the House Veterans Affairs and Armed Services Committee. “It’s really about passing the torch to a lot of other veterans who are on the Veterans Commission and see the value in that.”

He was hopeful when he saw an announcement The US Department of Veterans Affairs announced last week a new clinical trial to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of methylenedioxymethamphetamine-assisted therapy.or MDMA-assisted therapy. MDMA is a synthetic substance made in a laboratory, according to the department, and is also called “ecstasy” or “molly” in recreational use.

“Congratulations to President Trump for stepping up and taking the lead on this,” said Griffith of Jefferson City. “PTSD is a killer among veterans. If you just listen to the testimony that’s been happening over the last five years in the Missouri House, the life-changing it’s been for them is a compelling reason why something like this works.”

A new trial follows Trump signed an executive order in April, “Expediting Medical Treatment for Serious Mental Illness.” The order aims to increase participation in clinical trials and accelerate innovative research models and drug approvals for psychedelics.

Directs the Secretary of Health and Human Services to allocate at least $50 million to support and collaborate with state governments that “have established or are developing programs to advance psychedelic drugs for serious mental illness.”

Without passing the legislation, Missouri will miss this opportunity, said Republican state representative Matthew Overcast of Ava.

Cloud hoped that Trump’s April order would help “grease the wheels” this year by state Rep. Richard West and state Rep. Richard West who sponsored the state to conduct a study on psilocybin and ibogaine therapy.

“The last couple of months there’s been a lot of feds on things that the states are reluctant to move forward with here,” Overcast said. “So it’s exciting.”

According to the VA’s announcement, the department is involved in 19 other active clinical trials focused on psychedelic therapies for mental health conditions that have received more than $23 million in outside funding.

The new trial, called “A Randomized Controlled Trial of MDMA-Assisted Therapy for PTSD and Alcohol Use Disorder in US Veterans,” will enroll about 80 veterans and compare outcomes between those receiving MDMA-assisted therapy and those receiving the same psychotherapy with an active placebo. VA is coordinating with the US Food and Drug Administration and plans to share trial data with FDA.

The trial will be conducted at the VA Providence Healthcare System, and will recruit veterans from the Providence, Rhode Island, campus in West Haven, Connecticut, and the VA Connecticut Healthcare System.

Trump’s executive order says there have been more than 6,000 veteran suicides per year for more than 20 years, and the current veteran suicide rate is twice that of the adult non-veteran population.

He says people with major depressive disorder and substance abuse disorder, among other serious mental illnesses, may relapse or fail to respond fully to standard medical and psychiatric therapies.

“Despite significant federal investment in research into potential advances in mental health care and treatment, our medical research system has yet to produce approved therapies that promote lasting improvements in the mental health status of the most complex patients,” the order states. “Innovative methods are needed to find long-term solutions for these Americans beyond existing prescription drugs.”

Missouri veterans John and Kara Grady, who own a hemp shop in Rosebud, strongly agree with the statement, they said. And they’d like to see Missouri’s veterans health system participate in clinical trials already underway.

“President Trump is opening up investigations for the veteran community,” said John Grady, “If you look at the numbers … we’ve lost more in the wars with mental health than we’ve lost.”

The lack of movement on psychedelic-assisted therapy legislation is among the reasons why John Grady is running for state representative over Bruce Sassmann in the state’s Republican primary.

“If you don’t agree with Trump on everything, at least he’s addressing this veteran issue right here,” Grady said. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to stop that number, we’ll stop that flow of our precious veterans dying by their own hands because they don’t have treatment.”

This story was first published by the Missouri Independent.

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Germany’s medical cannabis imports post first quarterly decline since early 2024

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German imports of medical cannabis flowers fell to 50.5 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down from 60.8 tonnes in the previous quarter, the decline from the first quarter of 2024. According to a new EU and UK market update from Whitney Economics.

The drop lands against a year that went backwards. Germany took in more than 2025 tonnes of the product in 2025, more than double the 72,850 kilograms recorded in 2024, and import volumes have risen every year since 2018, when the figure remained below 4,500 kilograms. The first quarter number continues to match the high pace of 2025, which is why the report treats it as an early sign of stabilization rather than a turnaround.

Prices
The volume has not created a stable price. A gram of cannabis in a German pharmacy is approaching 4 euros, while a gram on the illegal market is around 8 euros, reversing the usual relationship between regulated and unregulated supply. The wholesale price is around 2 euros per gram, roughly half the retail price at the pharmacy. Pharmacy prices breached 3.99 euros in November 2025, and the report puts the overall compression close to 25% in two and a half years.

Germany legalized ownership in 2024 and restricted sales to pharmaceutical and telemedicine providers. Two access roads run parallel. Medical cannabis is mainly prescribed through private prescriptions, and recreational cannabis is available through membership of a cannabis association, with 400 licensed cultivation associations across the country, although the exact count varies by source. It is the medical segment that drives market growth, not the recreational segment.

Growth is based on telemedicine
Patients fill out an online questionnaire, receive a prescription from an affiliated physician, and in many cases have their order filled through an integrated pharmacy partner, with delivery within days and, in some cities, within hours. Between 600,000 and 700,000 self-employed consumers are supported by the telemedicine industry, compared to 200,000 to 300,000 medical patients supported by pharmacies. Total imports are now sufficient to supply between 900,000 and one million consumers.

© Philiprowe | Dreamstime

Market exposure
Critics argue that commercial interests risk overshadowing the medical nature of the system, and treatment does not always meet the required standard of control. Legislative initiatives that would tighten the framework are already on the table, including mandatory in-person inquiries and a ban on distribution of mail requests. The likely result of both measures is a significant decline in demand for medical cannabis flowers. Many telemedicine companies are preparing for the opportunity by building networks with local doctors and pharmacies.

Where patients and consumers would go if medical access is curtailed is an open question, as the recreational market lacks a real alternative for patients and cannabis clubs continue to face licensing hurdles at the state level.

Part of the difficulty in reading the market is that import figures say less than they seem. More cannabis is entering the country than ever before, but how much is reaching consumers and what the actual demand is is unclear. Without a nationwide data framework, the market functions as a black box, and excess supply and actual demand are difficult to measure with great precision. Supply has tended to expand faster than the market can absorb, with no forecast to confirm mature demand, and prices have adjusted downward as a result.

Germany has had a signal effect across Europe since the start of its reform, although its model has drawn criticism, with the mixing of medical and recreational consumption a recurring complaint. Countries that have traditionally taken a conservative line, France among them, have gone to a more formalized medical field, under stricter conditions and without adopting the medical flower like Germany.

For more information:
Whitney Economics
Beau Whitney
(503) 724-3084
www.whitneyeconomics.com

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