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We are forecasting 2026 legal revenues to be $30.5 billion, an increase of 4.9% since 2025

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Whitney Economics (WE), a global leader in cannabis and hemp business consulting, data and economic research, today announced the release of its US cannabis revenue forecast for the period 2025 – 2030.

“We forecast legal revenue to reach $30.5 billion by 2026, a 4.9% increase from 2025,” said WE Founder and Chief Economist Beau Whitney. “This is a welcome change from just one year ago, when the US legal cannabis market experienced its first year-over-year revenue decline in the history of the legalized market.”

That decline, Whitney said, would have been worse nationally had it not been for strong growth in New York and Ohio, where consumers gained greater retail access to cannabis products. Although unit volumes and legal share rates remained strong, supply saturation resulted in price compression and reduced overall revenue in the U.S. “Growth rates are still positive, not as much as in previous years, when we forecast 13.4% growth by 2026,” he said.

In addition, price deflation has again reduced near- and medium-term sales expectations, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 down from last year. “Whitney Economics’ forecast accuracy has always been in the mid-to-high 90% range, so when it dropped to 85% in 2025, we knew we had to update our models,” Whitney said. “Accounting for price compression was a major part of this adjustment.”

In the past, the key driver for predicting cannabis retail revenue was spending multiplied by the number of consumers. However, with price compression becoming a major factor in the US cannabis market, forecasts must account for market deflation, and WE has updated its model to include price declines.

Whitney’s prediction is that cannabis consumer behavior has changed significantly since the end of the Covid-19 era, with consumers spending essentially the same amount each month. Cannabis spending patterns underwent a major shift in 2023 and 2024, with cannabis spending now beginning to reflect broader consumption patterns.

“In times of uncertainty and higher inflation, consumers are no longer adding to their carts; instead, they are buying only what they need and saving on other cannabis-related purchases,” Whitney said. “As a result of this change, for the first time, price compression has become a major variable in the cannabis forecast equation.”

Since 2014, when Washington and Colorado states rolled out the first state-based adult cannabis regulation programs, the growth of individual markets, fueled by an influx of legal consumers, has overshadowed any price compression taking place. Market growth outpaced the impact of price declines. However, as markets began to mature and the pace of consumer conversion to the legal market slowed, price compression had a greater impact on market growth.

“We’re approaching the point where the growth rates of legal share are slowing while price declines have accelerated,” Whitney said. “Consequently, price compression will play an important role in advancing market value. This is a sign of market maturity.”

With the level of price compression and its suppressive effect on market growth, states must factor this into their tax revenue projections, which are expected to decline. States can no longer expect to raise taxes to make up for lost revenue because those increases will reduce demand, just like in any other industry, Whitney said.

Despite the importance of price compression, US cannabis revenue projections still point to growth for the remainder of the decade. But given the falling prices, legislators and regulators will be forced to encourage consumers to participate in the legal market; otherwise, retail and tax revenues will continue to decline.

“Perhaps this will lead to a move away from the marijuana dispensary model and opening up sales through other distribution channels, such as grocery stores and big box retailers,” Whitney said. “The US market is at a crossroads where the market is normalizing and no longer experiencing exponential growth. Single-digit growth will become the norm moving forward.”

For more information:
Whitney Economics
Beau Whitney
(503) 724-3084
www.whitneyeconomics.com

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Livermore Falls debates cannabis licensing fees

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Existing medical cannabis licensing fees will be temporarily applied to recreational marijuana businesses, the Select Committee decided on May 5. Board members agreed 4-1 to the temporary change, as long as officials say the fees are higher than necessary and accurately reflect the town’s oversight costs.

Bryce Cobb, Livermore Falls’ code enforcement officer, plumbing inspector, health officer and E-911 dispatcher, said voters approved the amended cannabis ordinance on April 28. Cobb said the amended ordinance allows recreational marijuana businesses and the next step was to establish a fee schedule. Recreational cannabis businesses operating in town would require local licensing approval under the ordinance.

Asked if he had fee schedules from other towns to compare, Cobb said he did not. Additionally, the town’s fee schedule specifically mentions medicinal cannabis.

“So it could be medical and adult use,” Cobb said when discussing whether the existing fee structure could apply to recreational businesses.

Read more at Sun Magazine










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Cannabis News

Georgia Governor Signs Bill To Expand Medical Marijuana Access By Allowing Vaping And Adding New Qualifying Conditions

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The governor of Georgia has signed a bill expand access to medical marijuana in the state.

SB 220, which was approved by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) on Tuesday, will add new requirements to the program, allow patients to vape medical cannabis, and change THC potency limits, among other reforms.

Under the legislation, patients with lupus will be allowed access to medical marijuana, under current state law that allows people with cancer, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer’s disease, ALS, autism spectrum disorder, intractable pain and other conditions to qualify.

The bill by Sen. Matt Brass (R) removes many of the requirements for a patient to be in a critical or terminal condition to enter the medical cannabis program.

The reform will also expand how patients can use medical marijuana. Until now, they have been able to obtain oils, tinctures, capsules, lozenges, topicals and transdermal patches, but the new law will also allow vaping as a form of vaping for patients over 21, while continuing to ban smoking for all patients.

The Putting Georgia’s Patients First Act also replaces the current 5 percent THC potency limit on medical cannabis products with a limit of 12,000 milligrams of THC that a patient can possess at any one time.

“These changes, while meaningful to affected patients, do not materially change where Georgia stands in the national landscape on this issue,” Kemp said in a signing statement. “This bill passed with a constitutional majority in both houses of the General Assembly.”

“I, like many who opposed this bill, have reservations about legalizing recreational cannabis. Many states that have legalized recreational cannabis have regretted that decision,” he said. “I also recognize that for some patients, medical cannabis provides significant relief from symptoms that would otherwise be untreated or treated with even more harmful opioids.”

“I do not believe that a well-implemented medical cannabis program should inevitably lead to the legalization of recreational use in Georgia, nor is the issue of recreational use on the bill on my desk for signature,” the governor said.

The invoice also replaces references to “low THC oil” in current laws with “medical cannabis.”


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The Georgia Medical Cannabis Access Commission, which oversees the program, “will have a new duty to inform citizens, law enforcement and health care providers about the effective uses of medical cannabis and its products, including publishing materials and conducting outreach and public education activities to inform the public, law enforcement and health care providers about this state’s medical cannabis program and the potential benefits for patients.”

Last year, the leaders of the Chamber a Blue-Ribbon Study Committee on Georgia’s Medical Marijuana and Hemp Policies to examine state cannabis laws.

Georgia lawmakers have also considered the legislation supporting research into the therapeutic benefits of psychedelics.

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EU regulators say Charlotte’s Web hemp CBD safety “cannot be established”

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The growing tension between international scientific findings and US health policy has raised questions about whether Medicare beneficiaries are being exposed to cannabinoid products whose safety profiles have not been fully established.

In March 2026, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) carried out a formal scientific evaluation of a shipment of Charlotte’s Web hemp product, concluding that the safety of a carbon dioxide extract derived from Cannabis sativa L. “cannot be established”. The agency identified several gaps in the available data, including significant portions of the product remaining uncharacterized, a lack of reliable toxicological studies on the actual material, a lack of human clinical data, and an unknown allergenicity and long-term safety profile.

At the same time, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) launched the Substance Access Beneficiary Engagement Incentive (BEI) program. The initiative allows participating healthcare providers to discuss and supply certain hemp and marijuana-derived cannabinoid products to Medicare beneficiaries under the authority of the Center for Innovation, and does not require approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. That distinction is at issue in a pending federal case: Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM), et al. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. et al., Case 1:26-cv-01081 (U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia).

Under the FDA’s standard framework, products intended for therapeutic use typically undergo controlled clinical trials, dose standardization, safety and toxicology evaluation, and manufacturing and stability validation. The BEI program operates outside of this structure. Some observers point out that this could introduce products into federally funded care settings before those benchmarks are met, while proponents of the program characterize it as a legitimate model of innovation.

Medicare beneficiaries represent a medically complex population, with many patients managing multiple medications, chronic conditions, and increased susceptibility to drug interactions. Cannabinoid compounds, including THC, interact with metabolic pathways such as CYP450 enzymes, which process many common medications. The safety profile of these products in this population has not been fully characterized through controlled studies.

Following the launch of the program, several companies publicly announced their positioning within the emerging healthcare supply chain. Charlotte’s Web highlighted alignment with CMS drivers and Cornbread Hemp announced institutional distribution through a national group buying organization, reflecting broader commercialization activity in the category.

SAM v. In Kennedy, the court is evaluating whether CMS overstepped its statutory authority by introducing avenues for the supply of cannabinoids without formal regulations, public notice and comment, or FDA validation standards. A resolution will determine whether the program is scaled back, modified, or stopped pending further review as implemented.

The EFSA’s conclusion does not ban the marketing of CBD products, but indicates that the scientific evidence necessary to fully establish their safety remains incomplete. The political debate reflects a broader question in health care regulation: how to balance the pace of innovation for therapeutic products with the standards of evidence typically required in federally funded systems of care.

Source: MMJ International Holdings

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