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With a Gun to My Head This Is The One Cannabis Investment I Would Make Right Now (And One I Would Short!)

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The US and Canadian cannabis industries are a big mess.  Massive margin compression is happening at every level of the industry due to unrelenting pressure from the illicit market, high taxes on the legal market, burdensome regulations, lack of banking and access to capital, oversaturation of many state markets that leads to spillover into neighboring states, and the list goes on and on.

 

The industry is in the midst of a crash, and “trying to catch a falling knife” is one of the toughest things you can do according to many financial experts.  Interested in picking up distressed assets for $0.02 on the dollar? Well, we may not see a true market bottom until full Federal legalization and interstate commerce can establish a true floor for a price of a pound, ounce, and gram of cannabis.  But that may be a false bottom as well, as the international scene could spell the end of the North American cannabis industry in terms of expansion and worldwide growth.

 

The US and Canadian markets blew there first mover advantage and gave the world stage away to cheaper producing and more aggressive players in the new cannabis space.  One thought that made American cannabis feel good about the future was that “we grow the best weed here in Cali, Colorado, the Emerald Triangle, and that will carry us in the end”.  Quality seemed to be the one thing the US and Canadian markets could hang their hat on in the future (certainly not lower pricing and production costs), but that may also be slipping away from the American growers.

 

Word comes now that Colombia, the most experience country at growing and shipping drugs around the world, has a high THC strain called “Creepy” that is taking over the world.  The demand is through the roof for the creepy strain, to the point that even socialist neighboring country Venezuela is getting flooded with high grade Colombian weed.   If the Americans and Canadians were hanging their hat on better quality cannabis winning out over lower cost weed, well, time to find a new hat.  The bumbling of federal cannabis legalization by the Trump and now Biden administration could set the American cannabis market back to the stone age as other countries continue to ramp up their cannabis legalization and export efforts.  Legal Colombian cannabis grows like Flora claim to grow cannabis at $0.06 a gram, and that is the legal market grow pricing.

 

Is it time to jump in and pick up a cheap dispensary license in distress or a cannabis brand that is out of funds?  My open opinion is no way, the industry has a few major crashes to go with US Federal legalization and then the bumpy road to importing and exporting cannabis internationally. But what if you had to go long on one cannabis idea, and go short (bet against) one cannabis idea right now?  Gun to your head, what would you pick?

Go Long

If you can’t beat’em, join ‘em.  While the playing field isn’t set yet and there are many treacherous turns out there for South America and Latin America, go long Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, and eventually Mexico.  They are perfectly positioned countries on the map to grow outdoor cannabis year-round. The main populations are very poor so labor costs are cheap, electricity is cheap depending on the country and not much is needed to grow outdoor cannabis, anyway.  Colombia is the most experience country at growing and shipping drugs around the world.  Their networks, connections, and past history will give them a huge leg up on international shipping, legal and illicit.

 

Developed countries won’t be able to compete on cost or experience, and if you thought “our stuff is so much better”, you are wrong.  Give Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil a few more years head start on the US, and their quality and shipping will be top notch. 

 

Does that mean no US-based cannabis will be able to compete on the open market worldwide?  No, the Emerald Triangle and a few other spots will command higher prices and will be sought out by cannabis fans, but think car manufacturing and NAFTA.  Mexico could just product cars so much cheaper than US due to auto unions, tariffs, and American wages.  In the same analogy, high-end US weed may be a Mercedes or BMW, but the car companies that sell the most cars are Toyota, Honda, and Ford.

 

In the end, the worldwide cannabis consumer will be price conscious, think Bud and Bud Light sales.  Every cannabis consumer survey done says the same 3 things, how much did it cost, did I get the desired effects from said product, and how difficult or easy was it to get the product (drive time, overnight mail, etc).  No one ever said Bud and Bud Light were the best beers in the world, but they are by far the best-selling beers in the USA.

 

In the end, the consumer will ask, what did my cannabis cost, did I get high, and how easy or convenient was it to get.  Bud and Bud Light is in every convenience store and supermarket in America.

 

Bet on South, Central, and Latin American cannabis to win the long-term worldwide cannabis game.

 

 

Go Short

This one may surprise you and goes against some of the brightest minds in the industry, but if I had to pick a short, I am going to short EU weed.  What?  That massive market?  Don’t you read your own stuff on Cannabis.net saying the European cannabis market could be the biggest weed market on earth?

If you think the US black market is a problem and decimating the legal industry at every turn, considering you can get edibles on the black market for $0.07 on the $1.00 compared to the legal market, the EU version of this will be 10x worse.

 

Europe will face much bigger problems with black and illegal markets than the US or Canada for a few reasons.  One, the 27-country union very rarely can agree on anything, let alone enforcement of anything. Two, you have members who are very “rich” like Germany and Switzerland, and members that are dirt poor, like ex-Soviet Union countries like Romania and Belarus.  Hence, there is a natural incentive for the “poor” countries to cheat and try and make more money since they can’t compete with the Germany’s and Poland’s of the EU.

 

That is not to mention the poor countries of Northern Africa that sit in beautiful geographic regions to grow cannabis.  Go check out where Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, Niger, and Chad sit on the climate zone map.  They also have massive access to Europe to a variety of routes such as land, water, and air.  If you think immigrants were a problem for Europe, wait until you see cannabis coming in by land, sea, and air.

 

Europe also has thousands of miles of borders by land and sea with a variety of poor countries.  Basically, access points to Europe are 10x more abundant than the US and Mexican border. 

 

History would pay a roll as well, if you followed the Euro crisis of a few years ago, it was Germany setting the rules and everyone else had to follow.  There is ill will toward the northern, prosperous EU countries compared to the less productive southern European countries.  It will be German legalization verse everyone else once cannabis gets rolling in the EU.  The incentives financially to cheat and use the black market will be overwhelming for the residents of dirt-poor countries.  The incentive to “do as Germany says” will fall on deaf ears regarding cannabis enforcement if every town mayor, immigration officer, and police chief if getting their share of the action. 

 

Yes, the EU will be a massive cannabis market, but will also be susceptible to the largest illicit market on the planet.  The EU having poor members and being surrounded by poor countries will help create high volume “weed corridors” of shipping and selling illegal cannabis.

 

Think California only x10.  Instead of an ocean on one side of California, what would it look like if you put Haiti, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil next to California as borders instead of the Pacific Ocean?  That is pretty much what the EU is looking at as they try to create a unified cannabis industry with rules and enforcement.

 

Making money in cannabis is a long game, sit tight, watch legalization and import/export numbers from around the world to get a feel on who will win and who will lose in the international weed game.

 

EVERYONE HAS A PLUG NOW, READ ON…

ACCESSIBLITY OF CANNABIS

THE ACCESSIBLITY OF CANNABIS IS NOW EVERYWHERE!



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Webinar Replay: Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em

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On Thursday, November 7th, Vince Sliwoski, Aaron Pelley and Fred Rocafort held a post election discussion “Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em”. Watch the replay!

Key Takeaways from the “Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em – 2024 Post Election Cannabis Wrap” Webinar:

  1. Panelists:
    • Vince Sliwoski: Oregon Business lawyer specializing in cannabis and commercial real estate.
    • Aaron Pelley: Experienced in cannabis law since Washington’s legalization in 2012.
    • Fred Rocafort: Trademark attorney working closely with the cannabis team.
  2. Election Results Overview:
    • Most 2024 cannabis ballot measures did not pass.
    • Florida, South Dakota, and North Dakota saw failures.
    • Nebraska became the 39th state to legalize cannabis for medical use when it passed two cannabis initiatives, Initiatives 437 and 438.
  3. Federal and State-Level Developments:
    • Medical use is currently legal in 38 states, and 24 states allow recreational use.
    • Republican support for marijuana legalization is growing.
  4. Federal Policy Implications:
    • Schedule III Rescheduling: The process to move cannabis to Schedule III is ongoing, which could significantly impact the industry.
    • Importance of Federal Appointments: The future of cannabis policy depends heavily on who is appointed to key positions in the administration.
  5. International and Domestic Trade:
    • Schedule III status could ease import/export restrictions on cannabis.
    • Unified control of House, Senate, and presidency might expedite legislative progress.
  6. Economic and Industry Impact:
    • Cannabis stocks experienced volatility post-election, reflecting investor uncertainty.
    • Federal legalization and banking reforms are crucial for industry stability and growth.
  7. Future Outlook:
    • The potential for federal rescheduling remains strong, with hearings scheduled for early 2025.
    • State-level initiatives and regulatory developments will continue to shape the industry.

Watch the replay!



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I Had Just One Puff

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“How Long Does One Puff of Weed Stay in Your System?”… This topic can be difficult to answer since it is dependent on elements such as the size of the hit and what constitutes a “one hit.” If you take a large bong pull then cough, it might linger in your system for 5-7 days. A moderate dose from a joint can last 3-5 days, whereas a few hits from a vaporizer may last 1-3 days.

 

The length of time that marijuana stays in the body varies based on a number of factors, including metabolism, THC levels, frequency of use, and hydration.

 

Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC, is the primary psychoactive component of cannabis. THC and its metabolites, which remain in your body long after the effects have subsided, are detected by drug tests.

 

Since these metabolites are fat-soluble, they cling to bodily fat molecules. They could thus take a while to fully pass through your system, particularly if your body fat percentage is higher.

 

THC is absorbed by tissues and organs (including the brain, heart, and fat) and converted by the liver into chemicals such as 11-hydroxy-THC and carboxy-THC. Cannabis is eliminated in feces at a rate of around 65%, while urine accounts for 20%. The leftover amount might be kept within the body.

 

THC deposited in bodily tissues ultimately re-enters the circulation and is processed by the liver. For frequent users, THC accumulates in fatty tissues quicker than it can be removed, thus it may be detectable in drug tests for days or weeks following consumption.

 

The detection time varies according to the amount and frequency of cannabis usage. Higher dosages and regular usage result in longer detection times.

 

The type of drug test also affects detection windows. Blood and saliva tests typically detect cannabis metabolites for shorter periods, while urine and hair samples can reveal use for weeks or even months. In some cases, hair tests have detected cannabis use over 90 days after consumption.

 

Detection Windows for Various Cannabis Drug Tests

 

Urine Tests

Among all drug tests, urine testing is the most commonly used method for screening for drug use in an individual.

 

Detection times vary, but a 2017 review suggests the following windows for cannabis in urine after last use:

 

– Single-use (e.g., one joint): up to 3 days

– Moderate use (around 4 times a week): 5–7 days

– Chronic use (daily): 10–15 days

– Chronic heavy use (multiple times daily): over 30 days

 

Blood Tests

Blood tests generally detect recent cannabis use, typically within 2–12 hours after consumption. However, in cases of heavy use, cannabis has been detected up to 30 days later. Chronic heavy use can extend the detection period in the bloodstream.

 

Saliva Tests

THC can enter saliva through secondhand cannabis smoke, but THC metabolites are only present if you’ve personally smoked or ingested cannabis.

 

Saliva testing has a short detection window and can sometimes identify cannabis use on the same day. A 2020 review found that THC was detectable in the saliva of frequent users for up to 72 hours after use, and it may remain in saliva longer than in blood following recent use.

 

In areas where cannabis is illegal, saliva testing is often used for roadside screenings.

 

Hair Tests

Hair follicle tests can detect cannabis use for up to 90 days. After use, cannabinoids reach the hair follicles through small blood vessels and from sebum and sweat surrounding the hair.

 

Hair grows at approximately 0.5 inches per month, so a 1.5-inch segment of hair close to the scalp can reveal cannabis use over the past three months.

 

Factors Affecting THC and Metabolite Retention

 

The length of time THC and its metabolites stay in your system depends on various factors. Some, like body mass index (BMI) and metabolic rate, relate to individual body processing, not the drug itself.

 

Other factors are specific to cannabis use, including:

 

– Dosage: How much you consume

– Frequency: How often you use cannabis

– Method of consumption: Smoking, dabbing, edibles, or sublingual

– THC potency: Higher potency can extend detection time

 

Higher doses and more frequent use generally extend THC retention. Cannabis consumed orally may remain in the system slightly longer than smoked cannabis, and stronger cannabis strains, higher in THC, may also stay detectable for a longer period.

 

How Quickly Do the Effects of Cannabis Set In?

 

When smoking cannabis, effects appear almost immediately, while ingested cannabis may take 1–3 hours to peak.

 

The psychoactive component THC produces a “high” with common effects such as:

 

– Altered senses, including perception of time

– Mood changes

– Difficulty with thinking and problem-solving

– Impaired memory

 

Other short-term effects can include:

– Anxiety and confusion

– Decreased coordination

– Dry mouth and eyes

– Nausea or lightheadedness

– Trouble focusing

– Increased appetite

– Rapid heart rate

– Restlessness and sleepiness

 

In rare cases, high doses may lead to hallucinations, delusions, or acute psychosis.

 

Regular cannabis use may have additional mental and physical effects. While research is ongoing, cannabis use may increase the risk of:

 

– Cognitive issues like memory loss

– Cardiovascular problems including heart disease and stroke

– Respiratory illnesses such as bronchitis or lung infections

– Mood disorders like depression and anxiety

 

Cannabis use during pregnancy can negatively impact fetal growth and development.

 

Duration of Effects

Short-term effects generally taper off within 1–3 hours, but for chronic users, some long-term effects may last days, weeks, or even months. Certain effects may even be permanent.

 

Bottom Line

The amount of time that cannabis remains in your system following a single use varies greatly depending on individual characteristics such as body fat, metabolism, frequency of use, and mode of intake. Frequent users may maintain traces of THC for weeks, whereas infrequent users may test positive for as little as a few days. Hair tests can disclose usage for up to 90 days, while blood and saliva tests identify more recent use. Urine tests are the most popular and have varying detection durations. The duration that THC and its metabolites are detectable will ultimately depend on a number of factors, including dose, strength, and individual body chemistry.

 

PEE IN A CUP COMING UP, READ ON..

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HOW LONG DOES WEED STAY IN YOUR URINE FOR A DRUG TEST?



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Is Kratom Addictive? Understanding Dependence, Risks, and Safe Usage

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Is kratom addictive? Discover the potential for dependence on Kratom, the risks involved with its use, and how to approach its consumption responsibly.

From 2011 to 2017, over 1,800 calls to poison centers involved kratom in the U.S. This significant number highlights the concern regarding kratom addiction.

However, without Food and Drug Administration (FDA) oversight, and due to various consumption methods like teas and capsules, there are significant health risks. Safe use of kratom is now in question due to these issues.

Research debates how dependence develops, outlining signs like loss of control and withdrawal symptoms. These signs are seen in regular kratom users. Ironically, some people switch from drugs like heroin to kratom, looking for a legal alternative.

Understanding Kratom: Origins and Prevalence

Kratom comes from the Mitragyna speciosa tree in Southeast Asia. It can act like a stimulant or like opioids, based on how much you take. People use it in different ways, for a small energy boost or stronger effects at higher doses.

The legal status of kratom in the U.S. is complicated and changing. It’s a hot topic because some worry about its misuse. It’s still legal in several states. This shows how different places handle drug rules. The National Institute on Drug Abuse is looking into its medical benefits. But, the FDA hasn’t approved it for medical use yet. The DEA calls it a “drug of concern,” which means policies might change.

  • From 2011 to 2017, poison control centers in the U.S. got over 1,800 reports about kratom. This shows it’s widely used and might pose health risks.

  • Kratom’s main ingredients bind to opioid receptors very strongly, stronger than morphine even. This fact is key to understanding its effects.

  • As more people use kratom, more are reporting serious health problems. These include liver and heart issues, and tough withdrawal symptoms, particularly in those already sick.

The statistics show mounting worries about kratom in the U.S. As its use grows, it’s becoming more important to health policies and laws. What happens next will depend on further research and legal decisions.

Is Kratom Addictive: Investigating the Substance’s Nature

The question of kratom’s addictiveness focuses on how it affects brain receptors and its long-term health implications. The ongoing debate highlights concerns about dependence and the risk of addiction. Scientists are closely looking at these issues.

How Kratom Works in the Brain

Kratom’s main alkaloids, mitragynine and 7-hydroxymitragynine, bind to the brain’s opioid receptors, similar to painkillers and narcotics. This connection suggests a potential risk of dependence. These alkaloids are key to kratom’s pain relief but also point to possible addiction concerns, especially with frequent, high-dose usage.

Patterns and Consequences of Long-term Use

  • Using kratom often, especially in large doses, can increase the risk of dependence and intense withdrawal symptoms, similar to opioid withdrawal.

  • Although some use it for pain or to improve mood, long-term kratom users might see serious health problems, like liver damage and mental health issues.

  • Withdrawal symptoms, including irritability, nausea, and sleep problems, show kratom’s impact on one’s physical and mental health.

Assessment of Addiction Risks

Studies indicate a significant risk of addiction to kratom, especially with high doses or frequent use. Dependence develops as the body gets used to kratom, leading to tolerance and a need for more to feel its effects. Withdrawal symptoms emphasize this risk, as highlighted by health experts.

Physiological Effects: Kratom’s Impact on the Body

There is a lot of debate about the safety and use of kratom. This herbal extract comes from the Mitragyna speciosa plant. It has drawn attention for its possible harmful effects on the body. The FDA has issued many warnings about kratom, raising safety concerns.

  • Kratom Adverse Effects: Kratom users have reported side effects like nausea, vomiting, and confusion. More serious issues include high blood pressure and liver damage. These problems highlight the risks of using kratom.

  • Herbal Extract Safety: Some kratom products contain heavy metals and pathogens. These can cause severe health issues, including death. This shows the importance of safety in herbal products.

  • FDA Warnings and Regulations: The FDA has linked kratom to over 35 deaths and warns against using it. They point out the lack of medical uses and the risk of addiction.

  • Physiological Impact: Kratom’s effects depend on the dose and the user’s body. Yet, it can lead to dangerous outcomes like liver damage and seizures.

  • Safety Concerns from Authorities: Federal agencies like the DEA are worried about kratom’s safety. Although not a controlled substance, monitoring suggests users should be careful.

Kratom might offer temporary relief for some ailments, but it comes with significant risks. The FDA’s warnings should make people think twice. If considering kratom, it’s crucial to talk to a doctor first. Experts stress the need for safety and caution with herbal extracts.

Conclusion

Kratom’s role in health and regulation is complex, with views and research findings widely varied. Some people use kratom for its claimed health benefits, but it’s a hot topic. Experts advise caution and suggest consulting a doctor before using kratom due to the unclear effects.

Clinical studies using scores like SOWS and COWS haven’t confirmed withdrawal symptoms from kratom. This adds to the debate, especially when some users report withdrawal. This makes kratom a controversial subject among different findings and user experiences.

When it comes to treating opioid addiction, kratom can be both helpful and harmful. Some have used it successfully to fight addiction. Yet, some states have banned it. This highlights the need for regulations and consistent product quality. It also raises questions about kratom’s legal status due to mixed actions by authorities.

The situation shows how complex kratom is in the realm of substance use and law. Without clear evidence supporting either its benefits or risks, it poses a challenge. More research is needed to guide regulations and health advice. For now, anyone thinking of using kratom should be careful, seek medical advice, and keep up with laws and health guidelines.

 

WHAT IS KRATOM ANYWAY? READ ON…

WHAT IS KRATOM

WHAT IS KRATOM AND WHY ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT IT NOW?



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