Cannabis News
With a Gun to My Head This Is The One Cannabis Investment I Would Make Right Now (And One I Would Short!)
Published
2 years agoon
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The US and Canadian cannabis industries are a big mess. Massive margin compression is happening at every level of the industry due to unrelenting pressure from the illicit market, high taxes on the legal market, burdensome regulations, lack of banking and access to capital, oversaturation of many state markets that leads to spillover into neighboring states, and the list goes on and on.
The industry is in the midst of a crash, and “trying to catch a falling knife” is one of the toughest things you can do according to many financial experts. Interested in picking up distressed assets for $0.02 on the dollar? Well, we may not see a true market bottom until full Federal legalization and interstate commerce can establish a true floor for a price of a pound, ounce, and gram of cannabis. But that may be a false bottom as well, as the international scene could spell the end of the North American cannabis industry in terms of expansion and worldwide growth.
The US and Canadian markets blew there first mover advantage and gave the world stage away to cheaper producing and more aggressive players in the new cannabis space. One thought that made American cannabis feel good about the future was that “we grow the best weed here in Cali, Colorado, the Emerald Triangle, and that will carry us in the end”. Quality seemed to be the one thing the US and Canadian markets could hang their hat on in the future (certainly not lower pricing and production costs), but that may also be slipping away from the American growers.
Word comes now that Colombia, the most experience country at growing and shipping drugs around the world, has a high THC strain called “Creepy” that is taking over the world. The demand is through the roof for the creepy strain, to the point that even socialist neighboring country Venezuela is getting flooded with high grade Colombian weed. If the Americans and Canadians were hanging their hat on better quality cannabis winning out over lower cost weed, well, time to find a new hat. The bumbling of federal cannabis legalization by the Trump and now Biden administration could set the American cannabis market back to the stone age as other countries continue to ramp up their cannabis legalization and export efforts. Legal Colombian cannabis grows like Flora claim to grow cannabis at $0.06 a gram, and that is the legal market grow pricing.
Is it time to jump in and pick up a cheap dispensary license in distress or a cannabis brand that is out of funds? My open opinion is no way, the industry has a few major crashes to go with US Federal legalization and then the bumpy road to importing and exporting cannabis internationally. But what if you had to go long on one cannabis idea, and go short (bet against) one cannabis idea right now? Gun to your head, what would you pick?
Go Long
If you can’t beat’em, join ‘em. While the playing field isn’t set yet and there are many treacherous turns out there for South America and Latin America, go long Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, and eventually Mexico. They are perfectly positioned countries on the map to grow outdoor cannabis year-round. The main populations are very poor so labor costs are cheap, electricity is cheap depending on the country and not much is needed to grow outdoor cannabis, anyway. Colombia is the most experience country at growing and shipping drugs around the world. Their networks, connections, and past history will give them a huge leg up on international shipping, legal and illicit.
Developed countries won’t be able to compete on cost or experience, and if you thought “our stuff is so much better”, you are wrong. Give Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil a few more years head start on the US, and their quality and shipping will be top notch.
Does that mean no US-based cannabis will be able to compete on the open market worldwide? No, the Emerald Triangle and a few other spots will command higher prices and will be sought out by cannabis fans, but think car manufacturing and NAFTA. Mexico could just product cars so much cheaper than US due to auto unions, tariffs, and American wages. In the same analogy, high-end US weed may be a Mercedes or BMW, but the car companies that sell the most cars are Toyota, Honda, and Ford.
In the end, the worldwide cannabis consumer will be price conscious, think Bud and Bud Light sales. Every cannabis consumer survey done says the same 3 things, how much did it cost, did I get the desired effects from said product, and how difficult or easy was it to get the product (drive time, overnight mail, etc). No one ever said Bud and Bud Light were the best beers in the world, but they are by far the best-selling beers in the USA.
In the end, the consumer will ask, what did my cannabis cost, did I get high, and how easy or convenient was it to get. Bud and Bud Light is in every convenience store and supermarket in America.
Bet on South, Central, and Latin American cannabis to win the long-term worldwide cannabis game.
Go Short
This one may surprise you and goes against some of the brightest minds in the industry, but if I had to pick a short, I am going to short EU weed. What? That massive market? Don’t you read your own stuff on Cannabis.net saying the European cannabis market could be the biggest weed market on earth?
If you think the US black market is a problem and decimating the legal industry at every turn, considering you can get edibles on the black market for $0.07 on the $1.00 compared to the legal market, the EU version of this will be 10x worse.
Europe will face much bigger problems with black and illegal markets than the US or Canada for a few reasons. One, the 27-country union very rarely can agree on anything, let alone enforcement of anything. Two, you have members who are very “rich” like Germany and Switzerland, and members that are dirt poor, like ex-Soviet Union countries like Romania and Belarus. Hence, there is a natural incentive for the “poor” countries to cheat and try and make more money since they can’t compete with the Germany’s and Poland’s of the EU.
That is not to mention the poor countries of Northern Africa that sit in beautiful geographic regions to grow cannabis. Go check out where Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, Niger, and Chad sit on the climate zone map. They also have massive access to Europe to a variety of routes such as land, water, and air. If you think immigrants were a problem for Europe, wait until you see cannabis coming in by land, sea, and air.
Europe also has thousands of miles of borders by land and sea with a variety of poor countries. Basically, access points to Europe are 10x more abundant than the US and Mexican border.
History would pay a roll as well, if you followed the Euro crisis of a few years ago, it was Germany setting the rules and everyone else had to follow. There is ill will toward the northern, prosperous EU countries compared to the less productive southern European countries. It will be German legalization verse everyone else once cannabis gets rolling in the EU. The incentives financially to cheat and use the black market will be overwhelming for the residents of dirt-poor countries. The incentive to “do as Germany says” will fall on deaf ears regarding cannabis enforcement if every town mayor, immigration officer, and police chief if getting their share of the action.
Yes, the EU will be a massive cannabis market, but will also be susceptible to the largest illicit market on the planet. The EU having poor members and being surrounded by poor countries will help create high volume “weed corridors” of shipping and selling illegal cannabis.
Think California only x10. Instead of an ocean on one side of California, what would it look like if you put Haiti, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil next to California as borders instead of the Pacific Ocean? That is pretty much what the EU is looking at as they try to create a unified cannabis industry with rules and enforcement.
Making money in cannabis is a long game, sit tight, watch legalization and import/export numbers from around the world to get a feel on who will win and who will lose in the international weed game.
EVERYONE HAS A PLUG NOW, READ ON…
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Latest Trump Weed Rumor – Trump Will Federally Deschedule and Decriminalize Cannabis, but Not Legalize It
Published
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November 14, 2024By
admin
In a recent interview, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie made headlines by asserting that President-elect Donald Trump will pursue significant reforms in federal policies regarding marijuana and cryptocurrency. As the nation grapples with evolving attitudes toward cannabis and the burgeoning digital currency market, Christie’s predictions have ignited discussions about the potential implications of such changes on both industries. This article delves into Christie’s insights, the current state of marijuana and cryptocurrency regulations, and the broader implications of these anticipated reforms.
The Current Landscape of Marijuana Legislation
Federal vs. State Laws
Marijuana remains classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), which places it in the same category as heroin and LSD. This classification has created a complex legal landscape where states have moved to legalize cannabis for medical and recreational use, while federal law continues to impose strict prohibitions. As of now, over 30 states have legalized marijuana in some form, leading to a burgeoning industry that generates billions in revenue.
Challenges Faced by the Cannabis Industry
Despite its legality in many states, the cannabis industry faces significant hurdles due to federal restrictions. These challenges include:
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Banking Access: Many banks are hesitant to work with cannabis businesses due to fear of federal repercussions, forcing these businesses to operate largely in cash.
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Taxation Issues: The IRS enforces Section 280E of the tax code, which prohibits businesses engaged in illegal activities from deducting normal business expenses, leading to disproportionately high tax burdens for cannabis companies.
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Interstate Commerce: The lack of federal legalization prevents cannabis businesses from operating across state lines, limiting their growth potential.
Chris Christie’s Perspective on Marijuana Reform
Christie, a former presidential candidate known for his tough stance on drugs during his tenure as governor, has evolved his views on marijuana over the years. In his recent statements, he emphasized that Trump is likely to pursue descheduling cannabis, which would remove it from the Schedule I classification. This move would not only provide clarity for businesses operating in legal markets but also open avenues for banking and investment.
Christie highlighted that descheduling would allow for a more regulated market where safety standards could be established, thus protecting consumers. He believes that this approach aligns with a growing consensus among Americans who support legalization and recognize the potential benefits of cannabis use for both medical and recreational purposes.
The Future of Cryptocurrency Regulation = The Rise of Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies have surged in popularity over the past decade, with Bitcoin leading the charge as the first decentralized digital currency. The market has expanded to include thousands of alternative coins (altcoins), each with unique features and use cases. As cryptocurrencies gain traction among investors and consumers alike, regulatory scrutiny has intensified.
Current Regulatory Challenges
The cryptocurrency market faces several regulatory challenges that hinder its growth and adoption:
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Lack of Clarity: Regulatory frameworks vary significantly across states and countries, creating confusion for investors and businesses.
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Fraud and Scams: The rapid growth of cryptocurrencies has led to an increase in fraudulent schemes targeting unsuspecting investors.
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Consumer Protection: Without clear regulations, consumers are often left vulnerable to risks associated with volatile markets.
Christie’s Vision for Crypto Regulation
Christie believes that under Trump’s leadership, there will be an effort to find a “sweet spot” for cryptocurrency regulation balancing innovation with consumer protection. He argues that overly stringent regulations could stifle growth in this emerging sector while too little oversight could expose consumers to significant risks.
In his view, a balanced regulatory framework would include:
1. Clear Definitions: Establishing clear definitions for different types of cryptocurrencies and tokens to differentiate between securities and utility tokens.
2. Consumer Protections: Implementing measures to protect investors from fraud while promoting transparency within the market.
3. Encouraging Innovation: Creating an environment conducive to innovation by allowing startups to thrive without excessive regulatory burdens.
Christie’s insights reflect a growing recognition among policymakers that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and that appropriate regulations are necessary to foster growth while safeguarding consumers.
Implications of Proposed Reforms
Economic Impact
The potential reforms proposed by Christie could have far-reaching economic implications:
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Job Creation: Legalizing marijuana at the federal level could lead to significant job creation within the cannabis industry—from cultivation and production to retail sales.
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Investment Opportunities: Descheduling cannabis would open up investment opportunities for institutional investors who have been hesitant due to federal restrictions.
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Boosting Local Economies: Legal cannabis markets have proven beneficial for local economies through increased tax revenues and job creation.
Similarly, clear regulations around cryptocurrencies could stimulate investment in blockchain technology and related industries, fostering innovation and economic growth.
Social Justice Considerations
Both marijuana legalization and sensible cryptocurrency regulations have social justice implications:
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Addressing Past Injustices: Legalizing marijuana could help rectify past injustices related to drug enforcement policies that disproportionately affected marginalized communities.
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Financial Inclusion: Cryptocurrencies offer opportunities for financial inclusion for those underserved by traditional banking systems, particularly in low-income communities.
Political Landscape
The political landscape surrounding these issues is complex. While there is bipartisan support for marijuana reform among certain lawmakers, challenges remain in overcoming entrenched opposition. Similarly, cryptocurrency regulation has garnered attention from both sides of the aisle but requires collaboration to establish effective frameworks.
Conclusion
Chris Christie’s predictions about President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to federal marijuana descheduling and cryptocurrency regulation suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy that could significantly reshape both industries. As public opinion evolves on these issues, lawmakers have an opportunity to enact meaningful reforms that promote economic growth while ensuring consumer protection. The anticipated changes could foster a more robust cannabis industry that contributes positively to the economy and addresses social justice concerns, while clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies could encourage innovation and protect consumers in the digital economy. Stakeholders in both sectors are closely watching these developments, eager to see how potential reforms might impact their futures. While the realization of Christie’s predictions remains uncertain, it’s clear that the conversation around marijuana and cryptocurrency regulation is ongoing and far from settled.
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Cannabis News
Webinar Replay: Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em
Published
1 day agoon
November 13, 2024By
admin
On Thursday, November 7th, Vince Sliwoski, Aaron Pelley and Fred Rocafort held a post election discussion “Post-Election Cannabis Wrap – Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em”. Watch the replay!
Key Takeaways from the “Smoke ’em if You’ve Got ’em – 2024 Post Election Cannabis Wrap” Webinar:
- Panelists:
- Vince Sliwoski: Oregon Business lawyer specializing in cannabis and commercial real estate.
- Aaron Pelley: Experienced in cannabis law since Washington’s legalization in 2012.
- Fred Rocafort: Trademark attorney working closely with the cannabis team.
- Election Results Overview:
- Most 2024 cannabis ballot measures did not pass.
- Florida, South Dakota, and North Dakota saw failures.
- Nebraska became the 39th state to legalize cannabis for medical use when it passed two cannabis initiatives, Initiatives 437 and 438.
- Federal and State-Level Developments:
- Medical use is currently legal in 38 states, and 24 states allow recreational use.
- Republican support for marijuana legalization is growing.
- Federal Policy Implications:
- Schedule III Rescheduling: The process to move cannabis to Schedule III is ongoing, which could significantly impact the industry.
- Importance of Federal Appointments: The future of cannabis policy depends heavily on who is appointed to key positions in the administration.
- International and Domestic Trade:
- Schedule III status could ease import/export restrictions on cannabis.
- Unified control of House, Senate, and presidency might expedite legislative progress.
- Economic and Industry Impact:
- Cannabis stocks experienced volatility post-election, reflecting investor uncertainty.
- Federal legalization and banking reforms are crucial for industry stability and growth.
- Future Outlook:
- The potential for federal rescheduling remains strong, with hearings scheduled for early 2025.
- State-level initiatives and regulatory developments will continue to shape the industry.
“How Long Does One Puff of Weed Stay in Your System?”… This topic can be difficult to answer since it is dependent on elements such as the size of the hit and what constitutes a “one hit.” If you take a large bong pull then cough, it might linger in your system for 5-7 days. A moderate dose from a joint can last 3-5 days, whereas a few hits from a vaporizer may last 1-3 days.
The length of time that marijuana stays in the body varies based on a number of factors, including metabolism, THC levels, frequency of use, and hydration.
Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC, is the primary psychoactive component of cannabis. THC and its metabolites, which remain in your body long after the effects have subsided, are detected by drug tests.
Since these metabolites are fat-soluble, they cling to bodily fat molecules. They could thus take a while to fully pass through your system, particularly if your body fat percentage is higher.
THC is absorbed by tissues and organs (including the brain, heart, and fat) and converted by the liver into chemicals such as 11-hydroxy-THC and carboxy-THC. Cannabis is eliminated in feces at a rate of around 65%, while urine accounts for 20%. The leftover amount might be kept within the body.
THC deposited in bodily tissues ultimately re-enters the circulation and is processed by the liver. For frequent users, THC accumulates in fatty tissues quicker than it can be removed, thus it may be detectable in drug tests for days or weeks following consumption.
The detection time varies according to the amount and frequency of cannabis usage. Higher dosages and regular usage result in longer detection times.
The type of drug test also affects detection windows. Blood and saliva tests typically detect cannabis metabolites for shorter periods, while urine and hair samples can reveal use for weeks or even months. In some cases, hair tests have detected cannabis use over 90 days after consumption.
Detection Windows for Various Cannabis Drug Tests
Urine Tests
Among all drug tests, urine testing is the most commonly used method for screening for drug use in an individual.
Detection times vary, but a 2017 review suggests the following windows for cannabis in urine after last use:
– Single-use (e.g., one joint): up to 3 days
– Moderate use (around 4 times a week): 5–7 days
– Chronic use (daily): 10–15 days
– Chronic heavy use (multiple times daily): over 30 days
Blood Tests
Blood tests generally detect recent cannabis use, typically within 2–12 hours after consumption. However, in cases of heavy use, cannabis has been detected up to 30 days later. Chronic heavy use can extend the detection period in the bloodstream.
Saliva Tests
THC can enter saliva through secondhand cannabis smoke, but THC metabolites are only present if you’ve personally smoked or ingested cannabis.
Saliva testing has a short detection window and can sometimes identify cannabis use on the same day. A 2020 review found that THC was detectable in the saliva of frequent users for up to 72 hours after use, and it may remain in saliva longer than in blood following recent use.
In areas where cannabis is illegal, saliva testing is often used for roadside screenings.
Hair Tests
Hair follicle tests can detect cannabis use for up to 90 days. After use, cannabinoids reach the hair follicles through small blood vessels and from sebum and sweat surrounding the hair.
Hair grows at approximately 0.5 inches per month, so a 1.5-inch segment of hair close to the scalp can reveal cannabis use over the past three months.
Factors Affecting THC and Metabolite Retention
The length of time THC and its metabolites stay in your system depends on various factors. Some, like body mass index (BMI) and metabolic rate, relate to individual body processing, not the drug itself.
Other factors are specific to cannabis use, including:
– Dosage: How much you consume
– Frequency: How often you use cannabis
– Method of consumption: Smoking, dabbing, edibles, or sublingual
– THC potency: Higher potency can extend detection time
Higher doses and more frequent use generally extend THC retention. Cannabis consumed orally may remain in the system slightly longer than smoked cannabis, and stronger cannabis strains, higher in THC, may also stay detectable for a longer period.
How Quickly Do the Effects of Cannabis Set In?
When smoking cannabis, effects appear almost immediately, while ingested cannabis may take 1–3 hours to peak.
The psychoactive component THC produces a “high” with common effects such as:
– Altered senses, including perception of time
– Mood changes
– Difficulty with thinking and problem-solving
– Impaired memory
Other short-term effects can include:
– Anxiety and confusion
– Decreased coordination
– Dry mouth and eyes
– Nausea or lightheadedness
– Trouble focusing
– Increased appetite
– Rapid heart rate
– Restlessness and sleepiness
In rare cases, high doses may lead to hallucinations, delusions, or acute psychosis.
Regular cannabis use may have additional mental and physical effects. While research is ongoing, cannabis use may increase the risk of:
– Cognitive issues like memory loss
– Cardiovascular problems including heart disease and stroke
– Respiratory illnesses such as bronchitis or lung infections
– Mood disorders like depression and anxiety
Cannabis use during pregnancy can negatively impact fetal growth and development.
Duration of Effects
Short-term effects generally taper off within 1–3 hours, but for chronic users, some long-term effects may last days, weeks, or even months. Certain effects may even be permanent.
Bottom Line
The amount of time that cannabis remains in your system following a single use varies greatly depending on individual characteristics such as body fat, metabolism, frequency of use, and mode of intake. Frequent users may maintain traces of THC for weeks, whereas infrequent users may test positive for as little as a few days. Hair tests can disclose usage for up to 90 days, while blood and saliva tests identify more recent use. Urine tests are the most popular and have varying detection durations. The duration that THC and its metabolites are detectable will ultimately depend on a number of factors, including dose, strength, and individual body chemistry.
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