You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

What a tough month it has been for the cannabis industry so far. While not as bad as last November, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 16% this month, and at 5.74 it is now down 16.6% year-to-date. I’ve been very cautious with my model portfolio at 420 Investor, which is down 2.6% so far in 2025, and I’ve been cautious here as well.

In August, the market rallied after President Trump said he was considering rescheduling cannabis. There has been no action for more than three months. If cannabis is moved to schedule III, it will disappear 280E tax. I called for it loudly in late 2022 in a newsletter here about essentials for hemp stocks.

I warned in the newsletter after Labor Day that several hemp stocks were in danger of falling significantlyand many have. I shared the Q3 earnings for the 23 stocks that were in the Global Hemp Stock Index at the time. The index now has 28 names, as we detailed back in late September two shares are subtracted and seven are added. In that newsletter from early September, I named 8 stocks that I was very concerned about. Here’s how they’ve performed since then.

While not all of them declined, as Village Farms continued to grow, the remaining seven were down at least 12.3%. The eight stocks I alerted readers to fell an average of 18.6%. The Global Hemp Stock Index fell 17.9%, while the MSOS ETF fell 35.1%. It is now down 21.5% year to date and remains too much of a risk for what it is investing in. In fact, there was redemption yesterday, with outstanding shares down 0.7%. Shares of 187.21 million were still up 43.4% year-to-date, with most of the increase coming in the third quarter.

Here is the full list of Global Hemp Stock Index members and their change in Q4 so far:

The 28 stocks fell an average of 25.3%, which is how much the index has fallen since it’s flat, with an average decline of 28.3%. MSOS is down 37.6% so far in the 4th quarter. The eight stocks I warned about in early September have one gainer, Village Farmers, but the other seven are all down more than the index. I’ve written negative articles on Seeking Alpha about several of these, including RYM, SNDL, and TLRY recently.

In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I currently have four stocks that are down more than 30% in Q4 and have gained in each of the positions this week. As it relates to the eight stocks I invited, I am no longer so negative on one of them (Canopy Growth, which I updated in an article published today looking for Alpha). The hemp sector has been very volatile, but it still appears to be in a bear market despite the huge rally from the lows.

Hemp stocks are crashing, but for many of them for good reasons from my perspective. The industry as a whole faces challenges, and there is no progress on two potential catalysts that I called for here three years ago: the elimination of 280E taxation, and large exchanges starting to list US hemp operators. Investors can make money by investing in the industry if 280E taxation is removed and other opportunities remain for companies outside the MSO space. However, investing in cannabis is quite risky.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

A change in Illinois hemp data suggests much lower sales

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

A year ago, people were extremely excited about the American hemp industry. President Biden had made his 2022 proposal and was pushing realignment, and it was underway. Also, Florida was on the verge of legalization for adults. The Global Hemp Stock Index closed at 8.22 on 10/31 and is now down 14.7% to close at 7.01 on 10/29, up just 1.9% year-to-date. Big ETF MSOS, which recently closed at 4.52, a premium to net asset value of 4.48, is up 18.6% year-to-date but down 31.5% since the end of October a year ago. Looking at the 5 largest MSOs since then, they have all declined;

In 2025, they all increased except for Green Thumb Industries, which decreased by 14.1%. GTI has the best balance sheet of these five companies. The worst balance belongs to Curaleaf, which is down just 1% since last Halloween and is up a staggering 83.3% in 2025.

In my opinion, things can get very scary. It is not clear to me who is doing this, but someone is playing a big game with MSOS. The ETF has seen its share count grow 44.2% so far in 2025, which is a huge increase. MSOs have very low valuations and have fallen badly in the last almost five years after peaking in early 2021, but if the 280E taxation remains, they could be crushed by their balance sheets and cash flows.

Games are moving out of the MSO space, with many traders rolling the dice on Tilray Brands. Over the past month, the stock has averaged more than 108 million shares in a day’s trading. The stock is up 2.3% in 2025, in contrast to the Global Hemp Stock Index, but it has been volatile. Shares fell 41.4% after hitting a 52-week high after the company reported its fiscal quarter results on 10/9. Even with this big drop, it’s 288% above its all-time low in June. Sales and profits aren’t growing much, but the number of shares is certainly up. Oh, but it’s a collection of memes…

Last week’s newsletter included a table of annual returns for the 28 stocks in the Global Hemp Stock Index. Nine rose more than 20% and six fell more than 20%. A week later, there are still nine that have gained more than 20% (the same nine) and six that are down more than 20% (five previous members and one new member). Looking at the nine big winners, several had a tough week, falling after a more than 0.3% drop in the Global Hemp Stock Index;

Seven of these nine big winners in 2025 were down in October, and five were down more than the Global Hemp Stock Index this month. Trick, friends! Watch out for goblins.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Canadian hemp sales hit record highs in August

Financial:

Verano Q3 revenue down 6%

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

MSOs’ financial reporting starts in less than 2 weeks, with Verano reporting its Q3 on the 29th. Trulieve and Curaleaf, among the major MSOs, are due to report next week. It calendar builds, although major player GTI will not be hosting a conference call.

As of 15, the global hemp stock index is up 1.1% this month, extending a massive 3Q gain, and is now up 12.9% year-to-date. MSOs fared better than other parts of the market, as the US Hemp Operator Index, at 15.11, grew 80.7% in 2025. MSOS, which is heavily concentrated in three MSOs, grew by 41.7%. The MSO’s move, however, has less to do with fundamental change and more to do with a potential realignment of cannabis. If cannabis moves to schedule III or higher, it will disappear 280E tax.

In October, the MSOS rose by 12.7% and the US Hemp Operator Index by 16.3%. Here are the incomes of each of the 9 members at the moment.

I haven’t yet shared the updated NCV Revenue Tracker article that I run before the financial statements, but in the latest one that came after the Q2 reports, I suggested that financial updates failed to impress. At the time, I shared some Big 5 analysts’ projections for 2025, and they’re not much higher now for adjusted EBITDA. In fact, Cresco Labs is slightly lower and is now expected to fall 29%, Curaleaf, slightly higher, is expected to fall 12%, GTI, also slightly higher, is expected to fall 8%, Trulieve is still expected to slip 1%, and Verano, slightly higher, is expected to fall 6%. None of these large MSOs posted adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter. So stocks are flying despite declining earnings.

The reason for the lower forecast adjusted EBITDA compared to a year ago is partly due to lower revenues for some, although GTI took a hit to its adjusted EBITDA as it will pay after the sale of its brands. This is also due to the weakness of the state-regulated cannabis space. It’s not clear why so many state markets are so weak, but a BDSA article from earlier this month regarding September made it clear. showed broad weakness. The illegal market and cannabis markets are obstacles, but some markets, like Florida, are just maturing and competitive.

Most MSOs look very cheap, but how long cannabis sales remain contested will play a role in the timing of the stock recovery. Of course, expectations of the end of 280E taxation have boosted stocks, although they are down significantly from a year ago, except for one.

What’s interesting about the year is that a year ago, MSOs expected Florida to move to adult use after the election, which failed to happen. Voters approved it, but 58% narrowly missed the required 60%. The next vote could be in 2026. These stocks have averaged -18.1%, while MSOS is down 21.5%. The 6th largest position in MSOS is Glass House Brands, which has risen 7.8% over the past year. Of course, one big MSO has dried up, as AYR Wellness is down 98.8%.

So MSOs are up a lot this year and since the end of June (+160% for US Hemp Operator Index and +124% for MSOS), but they are still down over the past year and much more so over the last 5 years. If the 280E takes off, it should help the fundamentals significantly. If so, be careful as most MSOs have balance issues.

The cannabis industry is going through a lot of changes. Who would have expected Target to try to get into THC drink retail? It’s been almost a dozen years since the first state opened its doors to adult cannabis sales, and the federal and state governments have yet to decide on regulations or taxes. Investors have lost a lot of money in recent years. Many companies, large and small, have been destroyed in America. However, cannabis remains popular among Americans. Let’s hope we clear up the taxation and regulation of the hemp industry.

Sincerely,

Alan:

This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.

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New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Florida’s medical cannabis market is struggling

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El