You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Last week when I was pointing out how overpriced Curaleaf is, I mentioned that the ETF MSOS had a redemption on 12/2 and then it had another redemption on 12/4. Shares traded down 1.3% for the week. They are down 3.4% from their peak in mid-November. However, the stock is up 39.6% year-to-date.

The ETF ended the week slightly leveraged, as it was invested in hemp stocks at 102.8% of its NAV, although sales were made this week. While Curaleaf rallied 9.3% after my piece last week, MSOS actually fell 0.5% to $3.67. Looking at the 6 stocks that have more than 5% exposure, it is the only one that is up, while the rest are down at least 2.8% to 6.8%. These six stocks include the five largest ETFs and also the Glass House brands. Here’s MSOS and its six current holdings, which make up 88.5% of the ETF so far in 2025:

I remain very concerned about the high concentration of MSOS to name just a few. The ETF is down 3.5% this year, while the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index is down 11.6%. The top three, led by CURLF at 29.5%, includes Trulieve, which I think is currently overpriced relative to peers at 21.2%, and Green Thumb Industries, which I like relative to peers at 20.9%. There is 71.6% in just three stocks.

If MSOS receives more redemptions, it will likely sell some of its large positions. So far, with MSOS’s shares outstanding down 3.4% since mid-November, sales of its shares have been made. MSOS reduced its exposure to shares of Curaleaf by 3.4%, TCNNF by 3.4% and GTBIF by 3.0%. We are nearing the end of the year and this bad trade could end badly. Of course, MSOS may hold for the next few weeks, but it’s already down 34.1% since closing at its 2025 high of $5.57 on 8/29. Redemptions could lead to a dire sale of his holdings.

The latest repayments are not the first, as there were more significant repayments from late 2022 to early 2023. There were also a few small repayments in early 2025. Given the year-over-year growth of the past two years, it was on the rise in the second half of 2024, likely tied to Florida’s election-legalization hopes. from medical to also for adults.

Currently up nearly 40% over the past year, that’s a high rise that has already had a big impact on MSOS’s price. At its peak in August, it was up 55% over the previous year. The world of cannabis investors has become much smaller, leaving the entire industry, including MSOS and MSOs, less liquid.

A potential reshuffle by the Trump administration has excited traders who like MSOS because it’s one security that trades higher and has options. That play started in mid-August before the big news, as someone started buying MSOS shares in early July. Both the number of shares increased and so did the price, and trading volumes also increased. Despite the rise in shares outstanding, MSOS is down year-on-year, although it could fall much further if the restructuring announced under discussion four months ago does not take place. The latest excitement in MSOS 2024 saw it tumble 70.6% from the close on 11/05/24, when the election took place, to its all-time intraday low of 2.02 set in early April.

How MSOS does will ultimately be up to him 280E tax leaving. Otherwise, expect more Widow-like situations. Last week I discussed Curaleaf’s large amount of debt due in 2026 and this is something to watch.

If 280E stays, it will be bad for all MSOs and this ETF. I keep thinking that some of the Canadian LPs are safer than the MSO’s and they can be collected more. I also see some ancillary firms that would benefit greatly if their clients faced less heavy taxation. MSOS fell 23.4% in Q4, while the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 20.8%. If realignment doesn’t happen, this pressure on hemp stocks, especially on IPOs, could get much worse.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Cannabis sales fell in November

Florida’s medical cannabis market continues to struggle

Capital increase

After paying off the old debt, Trulieve starts a new debt deal

M&A:

Cronos Group to buy Dutch hemp company

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

A year ago, people were extremely excited about the American hemp industry. President Biden had made his 2022 proposal and was pushing realignment, and it was underway. Also, Florida was on the verge of legalization for adults. The Global Hemp Stock Index closed at 8.22 on 10/31 and is now down 14.7% to close at 7.01 on 10/29, up just 1.9% year-to-date. Big ETF MSOS, which recently closed at 4.52, a premium to net asset value of 4.48, is up 18.6% year-to-date but down 31.5% since the end of October a year ago. Looking at the 5 largest MSOs since then, they have all declined;

In 2025, they all increased except for Green Thumb Industries, which decreased by 14.1%. GTI has the best balance sheet of these five companies. The worst balance belongs to Curaleaf, which is down just 1% since last Halloween and is up a staggering 83.3% in 2025.

In my opinion, things can get very scary. It is not clear to me who is doing this, but someone is playing a big game with MSOS. The ETF has seen its share count grow 44.2% so far in 2025, which is a huge increase. MSOs have very low valuations and have fallen badly in the last almost five years after peaking in early 2021, but if the 280E taxation remains, they could be crushed by their balance sheets and cash flows.

Games are moving out of the MSO space, with many traders rolling the dice on Tilray Brands. Over the past month, the stock has averaged more than 108 million shares in a day’s trading. The stock is up 2.3% in 2025, in contrast to the Global Hemp Stock Index, but it has been volatile. Shares fell 41.4% after hitting a 52-week high after the company reported its fiscal quarter results on 10/9. Even with this big drop, it’s 288% above its all-time low in June. Sales and profits aren’t growing much, but the number of shares is certainly up. Oh, but it’s a collection of memes…

Last week’s newsletter included a table of annual returns for the 28 stocks in the Global Hemp Stock Index. Nine rose more than 20% and six fell more than 20%. A week later, there are still nine that have gained more than 20% (the same nine) and six that are down more than 20% (five previous members and one new member). Looking at the nine big winners, several had a tough week, falling after a more than 0.3% drop in the Global Hemp Stock Index;

Seven of these nine big winners in 2025 were down in October, and five were down more than the Global Hemp Stock Index this month. Trick, friends! Watch out for goblins.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Canadian hemp sales hit record highs in August

Financial:

Verano Q3 revenue down 6%

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

MSOs’ financial reporting starts in less than 2 weeks, with Verano reporting its Q3 on the 29th. Trulieve and Curaleaf, among the major MSOs, are due to report next week. It calendar builds, although major player GTI will not be hosting a conference call.

As of 15, the global hemp stock index is up 1.1% this month, extending a massive 3Q gain, and is now up 12.9% year-to-date. MSOs fared better than other parts of the market, as the US Hemp Operator Index, at 15.11, grew 80.7% in 2025. MSOS, which is heavily concentrated in three MSOs, grew by 41.7%. The MSO’s move, however, has less to do with fundamental change and more to do with a potential realignment of cannabis. If cannabis moves to schedule III or higher, it will disappear 280E tax.

In October, the MSOS rose by 12.7% and the US Hemp Operator Index by 16.3%. Here are the incomes of each of the 9 members at the moment.

I haven’t yet shared the updated NCV Revenue Tracker article that I run before the financial statements, but in the latest one that came after the Q2 reports, I suggested that financial updates failed to impress. At the time, I shared some Big 5 analysts’ projections for 2025, and they’re not much higher now for adjusted EBITDA. In fact, Cresco Labs is slightly lower and is now expected to fall 29%, Curaleaf, slightly higher, is expected to fall 12%, GTI, also slightly higher, is expected to fall 8%, Trulieve is still expected to slip 1%, and Verano, slightly higher, is expected to fall 6%. None of these large MSOs posted adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter. So stocks are flying despite declining earnings.

The reason for the lower forecast adjusted EBITDA compared to a year ago is partly due to lower revenues for some, although GTI took a hit to its adjusted EBITDA as it will pay after the sale of its brands. This is also due to the weakness of the state-regulated cannabis space. It’s not clear why so many state markets are so weak, but a BDSA article from earlier this month regarding September made it clear. showed broad weakness. The illegal market and cannabis markets are obstacles, but some markets, like Florida, are just maturing and competitive.

Most MSOs look very cheap, but how long cannabis sales remain contested will play a role in the timing of the stock recovery. Of course, expectations of the end of 280E taxation have boosted stocks, although they are down significantly from a year ago, except for one.

What’s interesting about the year is that a year ago, MSOs expected Florida to move to adult use after the election, which failed to happen. Voters approved it, but 58% narrowly missed the required 60%. The next vote could be in 2026. These stocks have averaged -18.1%, while MSOS is down 21.5%. The 6th largest position in MSOS is Glass House Brands, which has risen 7.8% over the past year. Of course, one big MSO has dried up, as AYR Wellness is down 98.8%.

So MSOs are up a lot this year and since the end of June (+160% for US Hemp Operator Index and +124% for MSOS), but they are still down over the past year and much more so over the last 5 years. If the 280E takes off, it should help the fundamentals significantly. If so, be careful as most MSOs have balance issues.

The cannabis industry is going through a lot of changes. Who would have expected Target to try to get into THC drink retail? It’s been almost a dozen years since the first state opened its doors to adult cannabis sales, and the federal and state governments have yet to decide on regulations or taxes. Investors have lost a lot of money in recent years. Many companies, large and small, have been destroyed in America. However, cannabis remains popular among Americans. Let’s hope we clear up the taxation and regulation of the hemp industry.

Sincerely,

Alan:

This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.

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Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Florida’s medical cannabis market is struggling

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El