Statistics Canada released September retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales are on the rise from August levels, down 1.4% to C$475.0 million. This sequential decline increased on a daily basis due to fewer days compared to the previous month. August, originally reported at C$498.7 million, was revised slightly higher to C$503.1 million. Sales rose 6.6% in September from a year earlier, up from 8.3% in May and 7.5% in June. This was also below the 20.3% growth rate in August 2023 and above the previous lowest annual growth since the start of legalization in September 2024 of -0.9%, and it was significantly down from the 9.1% growth in December. In August, the record growth was only 1.8% higher than the index of the previous year. Total sales grew by 4.5% to C$5.39 billion in 2024 and 4.9% year-to-date in 2025.
An increase in the number of shops, as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market, have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales fell 5.0% from August and less than 1% from a year ago. Alberta was down 5.5% from August and 4% from a year ago. British Columbia was down 6.0% from August as it grew 1% a year ago, while Quebec was down 5.2% from August and up 48% from a year ago.
October sales data will be released on December 19.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
What a tough month it has been for the cannabis industry so far. While not as bad as last November, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 16% this month, and at 5.74 it is now down 16.6% year-to-date. I’ve been very cautious with my model portfolio at 420 Investor, which is down 2.6% so far in 2025, and I’ve been cautious here as well.
In August, the market rallied after President Trump said he was considering rescheduling cannabis. There has been no action for more than three months. If cannabis is moved to schedule III, it will disappear 280E tax. I called for it loudly in late 2022 in a newsletter here about essentials for hemp stocks.
I warned in the newsletter after Labor Day that several hemp stocks were in danger of falling significantlyand many have. I shared the Q3 earnings for the 23 stocks that were in the Global Hemp Stock Index at the time. The index now has 28 names, as we detailed back in late September two shares are subtracted and seven are added. In that newsletter from early September, I named 8 stocks that I was very concerned about. Here’s how they’ve performed since then.
While not all of them declined, as Village Farms continued to grow, the remaining seven were down at least 12.3%. The eight stocks I alerted readers to fell an average of 18.6%. The Global Hemp Stock Index fell 17.9%, while the MSOS ETF fell 35.1%. It is now down 21.5% year to date and remains too much of a risk for what it is investing in. In fact, there was redemption yesterday, with outstanding shares down 0.7%. Shares of 187.21 million were still up 43.4% year-to-date, with most of the increase coming in the third quarter.
Here is the full list of Global Hemp Stock Index members and their change in Q4 so far:
The 28 stocks fell an average of 25.3%, which is how much the index has fallen since it’s flat, with an average decline of 28.3%. MSOS is down 37.6% so far in the 4th quarter. The eight stocks I warned about in early September have one gainer, Village Farmers, but the other seven are all down more than the index. I’ve written negative articles on Seeking Alpha about several of these, including RYM, SNDL, and TLRY recently.
In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I currently have four stocks that are down more than 30% in Q4 and have gained in each of the positions this week. As it relates to the eight stocks I invited, I am no longer so negative on one of them (Canopy Growth, which I updated in an article published today looking for Alpha). The hemp sector has been very volatile, but it still appears to be in a bear market despite the huge rally from the lows.
Hemp stocks are crashing, but for many of them for good reasons from my perspective. The industry as a whole faces challenges, and there is no progress on two potential catalysts that I called for here three years ago: the elimination of 280E taxation, and large exchanges starting to list US hemp operators. Investors can make money by investing in the industry if 280E taxation is removed and other opportunities remain for companies outside the MSO space. However, investing in cannabis is quite risky.
Sincerely,
Alan:
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Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
Statistics Canada released August retail sales for the country, with Cannabis sales are on the rise up 1.4% from July levels to C$498.7 million. This sequential increase also increased on a daily basis due to the same number of days compared to the previous month. July, originally reported at C$485.0 million, was revised slightly higher to C$491.8 million. August sales were up 0.9% from a year earlier, up from 8.3% in May and 7.5% in June. This was also below the 20.3% growth rate in August 2023 and above the previous lowest annual growth since the start of legalization in September 2024 of -0.9%, and it was significantly down from the 9.1% growth in December. In 2024, total sales grew 4.5% to C$5.39 billion, and in 2025 they are up 4.5% year-to-date.
An increase in the number of shops, as well as a fall in the prices of flowers that attract consumers from the illegal market, have boosted sales. In Ontario, the most populous province, sales rose 4.8% from July and fell 2% from a year ago. Alberta was down 0.1% from July and up 4% from a year ago. British Columbia was up 8.7% from July after a 9% year-over-year increase, while Quebec was down 10.2% from July and 5% from a year ago.
September sales data will be released on November 21.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You read this week’s publication New Cannabis Ventures Weekly Newsletter we publish from October 2015. We no longer send them. By mail as before but we post this and all newsletters On our website hereA number
Friends,
The Cannabis Global stock index had a rough beginning until September. After 45.5% growth in August and increased by 54.2% after the end of the month, the figure decreased from 7.74 to 6.99 in just two days. The result is now only 1.6% per annum. The Great Cannabis Etf MSOS, which is 21.0%, decreased by 17.2% in late August.
Currently there are 23 shares in the Global Cannabis stock index, and they are now 39.2% now. The return frame is from -19.6% to + 186.0%.
There are more than doubled three shares in late June and 13 are two-digit winners. In the last 2nds of June, two shares that have been added to the index are double digit dismantling.
Leading three shares are Canadian LPs, and this newsletter has called the best two coats this year this year. Of course, I alerted here TILRAY is a dangerous stock On August 20, and while he fell a lot from his last peak, it is still higher than at that time (and it is dangerous to stay.)
Today I want to give some caution on some of these names and explain why I’m worried. I have written articles about some, looking for alpha, which are carbon (Tilre and farms), and I continue to be very negative on MSOS ETF (bad diversification). I will celebrate the shares that are in the Global Cannabis stock index, which depict me in alphabetical order.
Aurora Cannabis (ACB)I was closely following this one but it’s no longer on my focus list to 420 investors. The company exploded it in Canada’s adult market, but it has expanded internationally medical hemp. I don’t think the General Director has done a good job, and the shares that make up 15.4% a year as if they are not attractive.
Canopy growth (CGC): I’m closely following CGC and I have been very negative on it for a while. It has become exclusively cannabis, but it continues to harm its actions and fight with many debts. The share decreased by 49.1% to time, and I design it will post a new time low.
Glass Home Brands (Glasf)I don’t contain this one in my focus list, but I pay attention to it, because it is only three MSOS index. I like the CEO, but I think the stock is overestimated. Two investors have been supported who support the Fund very loudly. Glasf is 21.7% per annum.
Rhythm (force): This one, who was known as Agri, was difficult to start in September, but it is 23.0% per annum. I wrote about it before here and I’ve watched it even though it’s not in my focus list. I am interested, because the green thumb industry has such a large share. While I love the idea of haunting beverage-based drinks, the company has a lot of work to do to justify its mass assessment.
SNDL (SNDL): I don’t contain this one in my focus list, but I said to the CEO I like me. The company has what I consider bad MSOS, and it now trades on the value of a tangible book. It makes 40.5% a year.
TILRAY brands (TLRY): I started providing Tlry for a long time since I was not satisfied. I appreciate the better balance and likes what the company does with the drinks in the United States, but the fund, which now goes down by 10.9%, seems very expensive. Share-Count has exploded. One year from now on my target is essentially below if the shares trade and the company does not benefit from transformation.
Trulieve (TCNNF)To date, 44.7%, shares are cheaply designed with adjusted EBITDA. I think that the margins expected by analysts are too high, and I am very careful for Florida, where it is quite large. I also don’t like the balance sheet that has many tax liabilities. If 280E tax is clinging around, this one will fall sharply.
Village farms (VFF)Although it has fallen from the last peak, it still ends 234.6% a year. I think it’s a good company and looks like a transformation, but the fund looks ahead of her. The company could receive a medical cannabis license in Texas, but it may not be. I loved it under $ 1. While I don’t expect it to be a lot I think it could fall a lot.
I covered here just stocks that are in Cannabis Global Stock Index, although there are shares that are not in the indumin. I wrote about some of them while looking for Alpha and I recently parted the post in my blog some cannabis shares that refer to meA number
If I didn’t mention a share with me I don’t want readers to believe the name I like at the current price. My model portfolio has 19.3% cash in the 420 investors, which is about 20%, and positions in two Canadian LPS, two MSOS and three auxiliary names. I try to create a portfolio that has less flaws than Cannabis Global Stock Index.
Any trader or investor that counts 280e taxes can see this to happen. I don’t suppose that it will be, but luck for all those who bet it will be.
Frankly,
Alan
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Based on the Houston, Alan cries out his experience as the founder of the online community 420 InvestorThe first and still the biggest decent diligent platform focused on the shares sold in the cannabis industry. Alan continues to find new ways to connect industry and facilitate its sustainable growth in the Canepuni community. Approximately New hemp enterprisesHe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Until the early 2013 focuses on the cannabis industry, Alan, who began his career in Wall Street, worked as more than two decades of research and portfolio. Article 650 of the Article 650 published in 2007 Looking for alphaWhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker for industry conferences and a Frequent source The media, including NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Ration | Facebook | Connection | Email
