You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
MSOs’ financial reporting starts in less than 2 weeks, with Verano reporting its Q3 on the 29th. Trulieve and Curaleaf, among the major MSOs, are due to report next week. It calendar builds, although major player GTI will not be hosting a conference call.
As of 15, the global hemp stock index is up 1.1% this month, extending a massive 3Q gain, and is now up 12.9% year-to-date. MSOs fared better than other parts of the market, as the US Hemp Operator Index, at 15.11, grew 80.7% in 2025. MSOS, which is heavily concentrated in three MSOs, grew by 41.7%. The MSO’s move, however, has less to do with fundamental change and more to do with a potential realignment of cannabis. If cannabis moves to schedule III or higher, it will disappear 280E tax.
In October, the MSOS rose by 12.7% and the US Hemp Operator Index by 16.3%. Here are the incomes of each of the 9 members at the moment.
I haven’t yet shared the updated NCV Revenue Tracker article that I run before the financial statements, but in the latest one that came after the Q2 reports, I suggested that financial updates failed to impress. At the time, I shared some Big 5 analysts’ projections for 2025, and they’re not much higher now for adjusted EBITDA. In fact, Cresco Labs is slightly lower and is now expected to fall 29%, Curaleaf, slightly higher, is expected to fall 12%, GTI, also slightly higher, is expected to fall 8%, Trulieve is still expected to slip 1%, and Verano, slightly higher, is expected to fall 6%. None of these large MSOs posted adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter. So stocks are flying despite declining earnings.
The reason for the lower forecast adjusted EBITDA compared to a year ago is partly due to lower revenues for some, although GTI took a hit to its adjusted EBITDA as it will pay after the sale of its brands. This is also due to the weakness of the state-regulated cannabis space. It’s not clear why so many state markets are so weak, but a BDSA article from earlier this month regarding September made it clear. showed broad weakness. The illegal market and cannabis markets are obstacles, but some markets, like Florida, are just maturing and competitive.
Most MSOs look very cheap, but how long cannabis sales remain contested will play a role in the timing of the stock recovery. Of course, expectations of the end of 280E taxation have boosted stocks, although they are down significantly from a year ago, except for one.
What’s interesting about the year is that a year ago, MSOs expected Florida to move to adult use after the election, which failed to happen. Voters approved it, but 58% narrowly missed the required 60%. The next vote could be in 2026. These stocks have averaged -18.1%, while MSOS is down 21.5%. The 6th largest position in MSOS is Glass House Brands, which has risen 7.8% over the past year. Of course, one big MSO has dried up, as AYR Wellness is down 98.8%.
So MSOs are up a lot this year and since the end of June (+160% for US Hemp Operator Index and +124% for MSOS), but they are still down over the past year and much more so over the last 5 years. If the 280E takes off, it should help the fundamentals significantly. If so, be careful as most MSOs have balance issues.
The cannabis industry is going through a lot of changes. Who would have expected Target to try to get into THC drink retail? It’s been almost a dozen years since the first state opened its doors to adult cannabis sales, and the federal and state governments have yet to decide on regulations or taxes. Investors have lost a lot of money in recent years. Many companies, large and small, have been destroyed in America. However, cannabis remains popular among Americans. Let’s hope we clear up the taxation and regulation of the hemp industry.
Sincerely,
Alan:
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.
Michigan Uniform Commercial Code (“UCC”) Article 9 Sale
On October 29, Monster Holdings Group’s equipment will be auctioned at the Jackson County Circuit Court in Jackson, Michigan at 12:00 PM ET. All applications must be submitted online. Learn more Article 9 of the sale of all assets of this mining company.
Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Many more cannabis companies reported Q1 financials this week. While NCV did not run any of those press releases, all data has been updated in the New Cannabis Ventures Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker. The largest companies reporting in US dollars all reported, and the eleven companies that reported for the Q1 ended in March (excluding Tilray Brands, which is due to report its Q4 later this month) saw an average year-over-year revenue increase of 31% in their cannabis businesses.
Excluding Vireo Growth, that average comes to -0.7%, which is lower, especially after accounting for inflation, and a sign of continued challenges for the hemp industry. Speaking of Vireo, I’ve pointed out how investors didn’t care, and they still don’t. An average of just 375,000 shares traded per day over the past month, and the stock, which closed at $0.415, continues to trade off the level of its late 2024 capital raise and the price at which the company issued shares to make multiple acquisitions.
April was a big month for hemp stocks, but prices fell in May. The NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index rose 8.8% to 5.70 in April, but fell 2.8% to 5.54 in May. The year-to-year change of this index, which now covers 23 stocks, was -15.9%. Since its peak in early 2021, the GCSI is down 94%. Many are excited about the medical cannabis realignment that took place in April, although it remains unclear whether cannabis will be completely overhauled. The Department of Justice will hold hearings in late June to discuss adult-use cannabis, and it could be. If so, 280E tax would be removed, and this would be very good. I’ve written a lot about this since late 2022 when I highlighted it The potential end of 280E as a major catalyst.
The investor base in cannabis stocks has shrunk due to capital losses and fewer people interested in the sector. Institutions were more interested in high prices and maybe they would enter the field. 280E remains a big story, and not only is it being delayed by the limited realignment that’s already been completed, it’s unclear how unpaid taxes from the last few years will be treated.
NCV has stopped publishing most cannabis news, although we continue to update the financial calendar as well as the earnings rankings. After more than 10 years with NCV and more than a dozen years with 420 Investor, I am in the process of moving on. This is probably the last weekly newsletter. I’ve appreciated sharing the news and my views here, and I want to wish everyone the best. Hopefully, 280E taxation will be fully completed and the bear market that began in early 2021 for the hemp sector will be over.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index edged up slightly in May, rising 1.1% to 5.76. Compared to the previous year, it decreased by 12.6%. The index, recalculated as of the end of the first quarter, is up 9.9% so far in the second quarter, lagging the S&P 500’s 12.8% gain. Here are the earnings of the 23 names currently in the index (SMG was dropped in late April after the sale of Hawthorne Gardening):
MSOs are very much higher as the rally approaches the discussion of the big transformation announcements on 4/22 and beyond. There are currently six MSOs and two of them have been promoted. The rest rose, and the average of the six was 38.1%. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) has rallied 48.5% since the end of March and is now up 11.7% year-to-date in 2026. Both GCSI names have fallen sharply, and the index has a total of seven double-digit gains in Q2, with six MSOs and Canopy holding investments. 14 of the 23 names returned less than GCSI.
As readers are probably aware, the US reclassified medical cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III on 4/23, and that will go away. 280E tax for some of the businesses of cannabis companies. The Department of Justice will hold a hearing in late June to determine possible rezoning for adult use. If it passes, all 280E taxation will end, which is a good thing for cannabis companies and their investors, as well as the subsidiaries that serve them. It is not yet known what the outcome will be, and it is not yet known how past 280E taxes that have not been paid but are carried as liabilities (and not debt) will be handled. Also, there is no conclusion yet on SECURITY banking or the possibility of a raise.
NCV has stopped publishing news, although we continue to update the financial calendar as well as the earnings rankings. After more than 10 years with NCV and more than a dozen years with 420 Investor, I am in the process of moving on. I’ve appreciated sharing the news and my views here, and I want to wish everyone the best. Hopefully, the 280E taxation will end and the bear market that started in early 2021 for the hemp sector will come to an end.
Sincerely,
Alan:
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.
Massachusetts hemp production equipment for sale
On May 12, Middlesex Integrative Medicine, Inc.’s equipment is being auctioned online in Leominster, Massachusetts at 10:00 a.m. ET. All applications must be submitted online. Learn more Of the secured party’s sale of all assets of this cultivation equipment.
Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 2 weeks.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El
You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.
friends,
Hemp stocks peaked in early 2021 after a rally in 2020, but have been on a downward trend since then. That 2020 rally was pretty big from the depths of the post-pandemic lows, but the Global Hemp Stock Index is up just 5.2% that year overall. Since then, it has fallen from 44.39 on 12/31/20 to 5.26 currently, a decline of 88.2%. The index was at 100 as of 12/31/12 and has fallen over 94% since then. Only in 2026, the decline was 20.2% year-on-year. What a terrible storm this has been.
I wrote about 280E tax at the end of 2022, naming its potential elimination as one of them two great cannabis catalysts potentially, and another could be exiting the OTC for US hemp companies. Although none of these have happened, the 280E taxation could be abolished if the hemp reclassification takes place. The president issued a decree, but there is no timetable.
These stocks have risen over the past year, but they have fallen significantly since the 2024 election. Hemp stocks certainly look cheap by most standards, but for some, the risk remains that their balance sheets will be left in a very bad shape. A number of companies have already surrendered to debt holders, such as 4Front, Ayr Wellness, Cannabist, Gold Flora, MedMen, Schwazze and Tilt Holdings, but others will have to refinance their debt. I have called Curaleaf out on their massive debt and they have recently extended some of it, although the debt level remains quite high. There are other MSOs that are also facing challenges with their debt.
280E taxation remains a big issue for US hemp operators, but it’s not really a problem for Canadian LPs operating in Canada or around the world. Not only are they not subject to 280E taxation, they trade on NASDAQ and not OTC. However, these stocks are also in a bear market. My model portfolio of 420 Investor currently has 42.8% exposure to Canadian LPs and only 10.3% exposure to MSOs. The Global Hemp Stock Index, recently recalculated on 3/31, currently has 25.8% exposure to MSOs and 29.1% exposure to Canadian LPs.
What I like about Canadian LPs is that they have potential exposure in Europe and Australia, as Canada is a fairly mature market. Canada, which does not have a 280E tax, has a very high tax on cultivation. Maybe that will change. In any case, that market has started to consolidate, with acquisitions and license cuts. However, there are many outstanding licenses (1,002, including 110 pending removal due to suspension, cancellation or expiration). These stocks trade at or below tangible book value. Some of them are subject to 280E end of taxation through their investments.
Here’s the past half-year’s action in the seven Canadian LPs currently in the Global Hemp Stock Index:
All have fallen and two have lost more than half their value. During this period, MSOS is down 23.2%, and the Global Cannabis Stock Index is down 31.5%.
US hemp stocks have been linked to potential realignments and possible elimination of 280E taxation, but those may not happen. Cannabis-backed companies would benefit from helping their clients, but most Canadian LPs are not subject to the US. Hopefully this bear market will end soon. Happy Easter and Passover everyone!
Sincerely,
Alan:
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by the Paul E. Saperstein Co.
Michigan Uniform Commercial Code (“UCC”) Article 9 Sale
On April 7, Monster Holdings Group’s equipment will be auctioned at the Jackson County Circuit Court in Jackson, Michigan at 9:00 a.m. ET. All applications must be submitted online. Learn more Article 9 of the sale of all assets of this mining company.
Interested parties may contact Paul Cotto at 617-227-6553 or email pcotto@pesco.com:.
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we have published in the last 3 weeks.
Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.
Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El