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No Federal Legalization, No Problem -$71,000,000,000 in Legal Cannabis by 2030 Says NFD?

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Gary Allen, CEO of New Frontier Data, announced the release of the 2023 U.S. Cannabis Report: Market Updates & Projections, which provides insights into the current and future state of the American cannabis market. The report is sponsored by Cannacare Docs and includes information on sales, consumers, supply, and pricing for both adult-use and medical cannabis. Allen predicts a promising future for the industry, citing the emergence of new markets to offset the stabilization of established ones.

 

According to New Frontier Data’s estimates, even with a potential slowdown in new market growth, the industry can expect a healthy compound annual growth rate of nine percent through 2030. In fact, with nine states currently pursuing adult-use legalization and nine more looking to legalize medical cannabis, the market growth could be even more robust.

 

Cannabis Industry Sales Growth Projections

In 2022, strong consumer demand in the latest operational, legal state markets fueled annual legal cannabis sales in the U.S. to an approximate total of $30 billion. These states are projected to experience growth in yearly sales, with estimates exceeding $35 billion in 2023. If state-level legalization efforts continue to outpace federal policy reform, sales are projected to reach a whopping $71 billion by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of 12%.

 

The legal cannabis industry in the U.S. is experiencing significant growth due to several converging factors. Firstly, new legal revenues are generated by state markets that have recently reformed their cannabis laws and established retail markets for high-THC products. Secondly, there is sustained demand growth in legal states as consumers switch from unregulated to legal sources.

 

Lastly, there is an overall increase in cannabis consumption throughout the country as more people recognize the therapeutic benefits of cannabis, and usage becomes more normalized and destigmatized. Additionally, as cannabis is diversified for more medical and wellness uses, it further contributes to the industry’s growth.

The regulatory structure in each market has been a critical driver of size and growth for the legal cannabis industry in states that have legalized adult use on top of an existing medical cannabis program. Some of the crucial distinctions that have had the most significant impact on sales in the legal market include the chosen integration approach for retail access, the availability and accessibility of retail outlets, and the maturity level of the existing medical market.

 

Additionally, effective tax differences between medical and adult-use programs, ease of entry for new participants in medical markets, and product type restrictions between markets are all factors that can impact sales. Lastly, home cultivation/caregiver laws also play a role in the overall success of the legal cannabis industry.

 

The Growing U.S. Cannabis Consumer Base

By 2023, legal and unregulated markets are expected to have around 54 million U.S. adults consuming cannabis at least once. This figure is projected to increase by approximately 4% annually for the next eight years, with an estimated 69 million U.S. consumers by 2030.

 

It is worth noting that among the top 10 states with the highest number of cannabis consumers, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are expected to legalize adult-use markets soon. Moreover, North Carolina and Texas could potentially approve full medical programs by 2025, highlighting the significant market opportunities in these states despite current restrictions on cannabis.

 

Apart from Washington D.C., where possession and use of cannabis for adult use are legal, but there is no legal marketplace or sale, all the states with the highest density of cannabis consumers have operational adult-use markets. As such, there is tremendous potential for legal cannabis to expand into more large consumer markets in the coming years.

 

Increased Competition, Oversupply, and Falling Prices

Newly legal state cannabis markets saw an influx of dollars, pushing total cannabis sales to almost $30 billion in 2022. However, the most established adult-use markets in the country faced stiff regional competition, oversupply, and declining prices throughout the year. For the first time since their legalization in 2014, Washington and Colorado both experienced a drop in annual sales, and the three oldest legal cannabis state markets had double-digit sales declines year-over-year from 2021.

 

Competition in the market, caused by the activation of a new legal market within a dual legal state market as the new adult-use market competes with the existing medical one and between a state’s illicit and legal markets, creates downward pressure on cannabis prices. The speed of the price decline is influenced by the market’s regulatory structure, with prices generally declining more slowly in limited license markets than in unlimited license markets and more slowly in medical markets than in adult-use markets.

 

The effects on the cannabis market are not solely determined by market competition and regulatory structure. Other factors, such as the speed of retail outlet openings following legalization, state tax rates, and the quality and diversity of products available, also play a significant role.

 

Expanding Legalization and the Erosion of the Illicit Market

By 2030, it is expected that about 69 million adults in the U.S. will consume cannabis at least once per year, buying from both illegal and legal markets. Even with solid sales in legal state markets amounting to a combined $30 billion in 2022, most U.S. cannabis demand is still being met by the illicit market, with an estimated $76 billion spent on illegal sources across the country in 2022

 

North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia are the three largest illicit cannabis markets among states without legal medical or adult-use sales. These unregulated markets are estimated to have generated a combined $12.1 billion in 2022 and are projected to reach $18 billion by 2030 if cannabis remains illegal.

 

However, legalization efforts have successfully disrupted illicit markets, and legal medical and adult-use needs are increasingly expected to meet demand previously served by illegal sources. In 2022, 28% of U.S. cannabis sales were from legal channels, but by 2030, it’s expected to reach 48%. If all 18 potential markets legalize within their expected timelines, the legal market could meet almost 60% of the total cannabis demand by 2030.

 

Conclusion

The cannabis market in the US is expanding and changing as more people become interested in it and it becomes legal in more states. While the illicit market currently dominates, the trend toward legalization is upsetting the criminal economy and contributing to the rising demand for legal cannabis.

 

Cannabis legalization will increase market share as additional states legalize it, potentially reaching 60% of global demand by 2030. The legal cannabis industry has a promising future overall, but issues such as regulatory barriers, regional competition, and oversupply remain to be resolved.

 

CANNABIS MARKET SIZE, READ ON…

CANNABIS MARKET SIZE

HOW BIG WILL THE MARIJUANA GET BY THE END OF THE DECADE?



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Legal Cannabis Sales in America Totalled How Much in 2024? A. $15 Billion B. $24 Billion C. $30 Billion D. $41.3 Billion

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Legal Cannabis Sales in the US Hit $30 Billion in 2024 in the USA!

 

The legal cannabis industry in the United States achieved a groundbreaking milestone in 2024, with total sales surpassing $30 billion. This remarkable achievement underscores the rapid growth and normalization of cannabis as both a medical and recreational product, reflecting shifting societal attitudes, legislative reforms, and an evolving consumer market. The $30 billion figure represents a significant leap from previous years and highlights the immense potential of this burgeoning industry. 

 

As more states embrace legalization and consumers increasingly turn to cannabis for both therapeutic and recreational purposes, the Industry is poised for continued expansion. This article delves into the factors driving this growth, the challenges facing the sector, and what the future holds for cannabis in the United States.

The Growth Trajectory of Legal Cannabis

 

The cannabis industry has experienced exponential growth over the past decade. In 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize recreational cannabis use, setting the stage for a wave of legalization efforts across the country. By 2024, 23 states had legalized adult-use cannabis, while 38 states had approved medical marijuana programs. This expanding legal framework has created a robust market that continues to attract consumers and investors alike. 

 

In 2024 alone, legal cannabis sales grew by an estimated 14% year-over-year, driven by several key factors: 

 

  • State-Level Legalization: New markets such as New York, Maryland, Missouri, and Connecticut launched adult-use sales in 2023 and 2024, contributing significantly to overall revenue. These states joined established markets like California, Colorado, and Illinois in generating billions of dollars in annual sales. 

  

  • Consumer Demand: According to data from New Frontier Data, approximately **38.4 million U.S. adults** used cannabis in 2024, with many consuming it regularly. The growing acceptance of cannabis as a mainstream product has led to increased demand for diverse products such as edibles, beverages, tinctures, topicals, and vape cartridges. 

 

  • Medical Market Growth: The medical cannabis sector remains a cornerstone of the industry. In 2024, medical marijuana sales accounted for a substantial portion of total revenue, with projections suggesting they could reach $13.1 billion by 2025. Patients use medical cannabis to manage conditions such as chronic pain, anxiety, epilepsy, and multiple sclerosis. 

 

  • Innovation in Product Development: Cannabis companies have invested heavily in research and development to create innovative products that cater to various consumer preferences. For example, low-dose edibles and CBD-infused wellness products have gained popularity among health-conscious consumers seeking alternatives to traditional pharmaceuticals or recreational substances like alcohol.

 

Economic Impact of Legal Cannabis

 

The $30 billion milestone is not just a win for cannabis companies—it also represents a significant economic boon for local and state governments. The legal cannabis industry has become a major source of tax revenue, job creation, and business opportunities across the United States.

States with legal cannabis programs have reaped substantial tax benefits from sales. In California alone—the largest cannabis market in the U.S.—the state collected over $1 billion in tax revenue from cannabis sales in 2024. These funds are often allocated toward public services such as education, healthcare programs, infrastructure development, and social equity initiatives aimed at addressing the harms caused by decades of prohibition.

 

Other states with thriving markets, including Illinois and Colorado, have reported similar financial windfalls. Illinois generated nearly $500 million in tax revenue, while Colorado surpassed $450 million, demonstrating how legalized cannabis can serve as an economic engine for state governments.

 

The cannabis industry has also become one of the fastest-growing sectors for employment in the U.S., supporting over 500,000 full-time jobs by the end of 2024. These jobs span various roles across cultivation facilities, dispensaries, manufacturing plants, marketing firms, and compliance departments.

As new states continue to roll out their programs and existing markets mature, job opportunities are expected to grow further. According to Leafly’s annual jobs report, the industry could support over 700,000 jobs by 2030 if federal legalization occurs.

 

Challenges Facing the Cannabis Industry

 

Despite its impressive growth trajectory, the U.S. cannabis industry faces several challenges that could impact its future development:

 

Cannabis remains illegal at the federal level under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), creating significant hurdles for businesses operating within this space. Federal prohibition restricts access to banking services and capital markets while imposing burdensome tax obligations under Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code.

 

While there have been efforts in Congress to pass legislation such as the SAFE Banking Act—which would provide cannabis businesses with access to financial services—progress has been slow due to political gridlock.

 

In some mature markets like California and Oregon, oversupply has led to price declines that have squeezed profit margins for producers and retailers. Additionally, competition from illicit markets continues to pose challenges for legal operators who must comply with strict regulations and higher operating costs.

 

While legalization has created economic opportunities for many entrepreneurs, critics argue that communities disproportionately impacted by past drug enforcement policies have not benefited equitably from the industry’s growth. Social equity programs aimed at addressing these disparities have faced implementation challenges in several states.

Consumer Trends Shaping the Market

 

As consumer preferences evolve, several trends are shaping the future of legal cannabis:

 

  • Health and Wellness Focus: Many consumers are turning to cannabis as part of their wellness routines. Products containing cannabidiol (CBD) or low levels of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) are particularly popular among those seeking relaxation or relief without intoxication.

  • Sustainability Concerns: Environmentally conscious consumers are demanding sustainable practices within the cannabis supply chain. Companies are responding by adopting eco-friendly cultivation methods and biodegradable packaging solutions.

  • Technology Integration: From online ordering platforms to AI-powered cultivation systems, technology is playing an increasingly important role in streamlining operations and enhancing customer experiences.

The Path Forward: Federal Legalization on the Horizon?

 

One of the most significant questions facing the U.S. cannabis industry is whether federal legalization will become a reality in the near future. Advocates argue that removing federal restrictions would unlock new opportunities for growth by enabling interstate commerce, international trade partnerships, and broader access to capital.

 

While bipartisan support for reform has grown in recent years—particularly among younger generations—federal legalization remains uncertain due to political divisions on Capitol Hill.

Global Implications of U.S. Cannabis Growth

 

The success of the U.S. cannabis market has also had ripple effects globally. Countries such as Canada (which legalized recreational use nationwide in 2018) are closely watching developments south of their border as they seek to refine their own policies.

 

Meanwhile, European nations like Germany are exploring legalization frameworks inspired by U.S.-style state-level programs—a testament to America’s influence on global drug policy reform efforts.

Conclusion

 

The $30 billion milestone achieved by legal cannabis sales in 2024 represents more than just a financial achievement—it symbolizes a cultural shift toward acceptance and normalization after decades of prohibition stigma.

 

As new markets emerge across states like Florida or Pennsylvania (both expected contenders for future adult-use legalization), coupled with advancements like federal reform possibilities—the next decade looks promising!

 

HEMP DERIVED THC PRODUCTS ARE HURTING CANNABIS SALES, READ ON…

DELTA-8 CANNABIS SALES IN AMERICA

DELTA-8 CANNABIS SALES HIT $2 BILLION IN AMERICA? ALL FROM HEMP?



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Does Derek Maltz at the DEA Now Kill All Cannabis Legalization and Rescheduling Hopes?

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Is There Hope For Cannabis Rescheduling With Maltz In Office?

 

In January, fear spread across the nation when Derek S. Maltz was appointed as the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA)’s Acting Administrator.


On January 21st, 2025, he took office, but we’re yet to find out if he’s the great threat to cannabis rescheduling that we think he is. Having Maltz in the DEA office could quite literally be a cannabis prohibitionist’s dream: he has all the right ingredients in place to keep cannabis illegal and stop it from progressing. Rescheduling? Don’t even think about it.

 

NORML Deputy Director Paul Armentano even commented on the appointment, saying: “The new acting DEA Administrator is a lifelong drug war hawk whose outdated attitudes toward cannabis are out of step with those of most Americans. At a time when most Americans are demanding long overdue changes in federal cannabis policy, Derek Maltz epitomizes the failed policies and approaches of the past.”

 

You see, Maltz has long been vocal about his skepticism surrounding cannabis, including the benefits it can provide if rescheduled. And while the DEA press release describes Maltz as a “champion” when it comes to fighting global drug trafficking as well as terrorism, he’s not so hot about rescheduling cannabis.

 

Yes, even if Trump showed support for rescheduling weed! Just last September 2024, Trump posted on his social media site, Truth Social: “As a Floridian, I will be voting YES on Amendment 3 in November.”

 

“As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a Schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common sense laws, including safe banking for state authorized companies, and supporting states rights to pass marijuana laws, like in Florida, that work so well for their citizens,” he said.

 

However, Maltz openly doubted the legitimacy of government efforts to reclassify cannabis, saying that under Biden, the government was “placing politics above public safety.”


As reported by Marijuana Moment, Maltz also put cannabis in a negative light and said it causes psychosis, during an NTD interview last year during a Turning Point USA event. “Marijuana is not the marijuana from the 70s or the 80s or the 90s. This is higher, pure-THC marijuana,” Maltz said.

“I’ve even talked to doctors about this. It’s actually causing psychosis, schizophrenia, depression, anxiety – so it’s really a gateway drug for these kids that don’t know any better,” Maltz said. “The mental illness – the depression and anxiety – is off the chats in America. So these kids are turning to drugs for help,” he was quoted as saying.

 

How Else Is Maltz A Threat To Cannabis Legalization?

 

In addition, Maltz’ decorated career in law enforcement, particularly his strict stance on organized crime and drug trafficking, may influence his positions when it comes to marijuana regulations and the businesses in the industry.


If Maltz continues his focus on policing, this could seriously hurt profits and the industry as a whole. There is no doubt that the political climate is turbulent at best, and with Maltz at the helm, with his claims of focusing on public safety and fighting against drugs, the pro-cannabis camp is more worried than ever. It does not help that the hearings initially scheduled to debate cannabis rescheduling was delayed; it should have pushed through in order to assess the rescheduling proposals so that cannabis may have been on its way to be listed as a Schedule III substance.

Unfortunately, the unstable and chaotic political climate as of late did nothing but delay these discussions.


Furthermore, Maltz might be spending a lot of time, money, and effort on capturing these so-called narco-terrorists during his time in the Drug Enforcement Agency. According to him, traffickers and drug cartels still rule the marijuana markets. This isn’t good if it happens, since this could cause more DEA raids or random, unnecessary investigations in legal cannabis markets. Besides, Maltz thinks that the cartels fuel the black market in America today. Maltz even said: “People aren’t going to pay for marijuana, for example, with these high taxes in these states that have legalized. They’re going to get it from the cartels, and that’s just reality.”


Conclusion


Trump’s stance on marijuana has continued to confuse people; it’s been mixed over the past few years. While Trump himself says supports rescheduling, his administration can quite literally make the decision to stop the rescheduling process completely. After all, administrative law states that if a federal agency hasn’t made a final decision before a new government takes place in the White House, then the appointed president has the freedom to direct that the rules be completely withdrawn.

 

On that note, we’d need a strong DEA head to change things. Things are hard enough as it is, the last thing we need is an obstacle in the government.

 

It’s truly unfortunate that we have Maltz in office; with him in leadership, any hopes for progressing on federal cannabis reform might go back to being just a dream. What he does over the next few months could create a serious divide between federal enforcement as well as state legalization efforts, and instead increase the hardships faced by businesses and public health.

While the future seems bleak, we have to keep a close eye on how political negotiations in the Trump Administration will fare in the near future. That said, we must never give up and continue to fight for legalization however we can.

 

DEA JUDGE STALLS ON CANNABIS, READ ON…

DELAY IN CANNABIS RESCHEDULING

DEA CANCELS CANNABIS HEARING FOR 90 DAYS, NOT A DONE DEAL NOW!

 



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Why Don’t More U.S. Investors Look Abroad for Marijuana Investment?

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With ongoing tensions between U.S. state and federal marijuana laws, U.S. marijuana investments present significant legal and logistical challenges. This is especially true for investors with ties to federally regulated businesses. While some investors have accepted the risks of U.S. marijuana, others are waiting for major federal reforms. But what if there was a way to invest in marijuana without the looming threat of federal enforcement?

International marijuana operators might offer just that opportunity. Marijuana remains a Schedule I controlled substance within the U.S. (See Thoughts on the Terrible Pageant of Marijuana Rescheduling) Even if marijuana is moved into Schedule III, it will still be illegal to buy and sell interstate without a DEA license, and state markets won’t fundamentally change. This opens the door for investment and operational partnerships in legal marijuana markets abroad — without many of the risks associated with U.S. marijuana operators.

Some U.S. Code provisions relevant to investing in international marijuana markets

21 USC § 841(a)

Makes it illegal to manufacture, distribute, or possess with intent to distribute a controlled substance within the U.S.

21 USC § 959

Extends the reach of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), criminalizing the intent to import a Schedule I substance into the U.S. This explicit reference to unlawful importation shows that Congress anticipated extraterritorial application of the CSA for certain sections (e.g. § 959) and not others (e.g. § 841(a)).

18 USC § 1956

Criminalizes monetary transactions involving proceeds from “specified unlawful activity”, including violations of the CSA. Unless a foreign investment or operational partnership resulted in the import of marijuana into the U.S., it would not rise to the level of a “specified unlawful activity.”

21 USC §§ 846; 18 USC 371; & 18 USC 2

Both conspiracy and aiding and abetting confer extraterritorial jurisdiction to the same extent as the underlying offense. Therefore, unless the foreign investment resulted in marijuana being imported into the U.S., such investment would not trigger these violations.

Key judicial interpretations on investing in international marijuana markets

The CSA does not speak specifically to foreign investment into an operation that would otherwise be illegal in the U.S. As such, we must look to judicial precedent.

The Supreme Court has emphasized that unless Congress speaks to the extraterritorial application of a law, then it does not generally apply to foreign activities. The relevant issue here centers on whether the foreign activity is intended to, or could reasonably be expected to, result in a violation on U.S. soil. For example, investing in a foreign operator that intends to illegally export marijuana into the U.S., would trigger a CSA violation. However, investing in a foreign operator that intends only to manufacture and sell marijuana outside of the U.S., would not trigger a CSA violation (ensuring robust SOPs and internal oversight policies is also critical).

The leading case on this topic is United States v. Lopez­Vanegas, which relied on Supreme Court precedent on extraterritorial application of U.S. law. The Eleventh Circuit held that where “the object of the conspiracy was to possess controlled substances outside the United States with the intent to distribute outside the United States” the CSA does not apply to those foreign activities. The Court noted that it did not matter whether the alleged conspirators planned some of the operations from within the U.S. The key to a CSA violation centered around whether the conspirators intended to possess or distribute a controlled substance inside the U.S.

Courts in the First Circuit, Fifth Circuit, D.C. Circuit, and the Eastern and Northern District (States v. Daniels, 2010 WL 2557506 (N.D. Cal. June 21, 2010)) have either cited Lopez-Vanegas or reached similar conclusions in cases with both similar and differing circumstances.

What does this mean for international marijuana investment?

These judicial interpretations show that investing in or providing operational support to legal foreign marijuana operators does not pose a risk of violating U.S. law— provided that the investment does not involve importing marijuana into the U.S. While some U.S. banks may remain cautious, these concerns can often be alleviated with a well-supported legal memorandum or opinion.

If you or your team are interested in exploring opportunities to support legal marijuana operations abroad (e.g. Canada, Germany, Thailand, Colombia, Portugal, etc.), please reach out for a free consultation.



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