Best of times? Worst of times? … Why not both at once?

The year 2025 will be good for consumers in terms of pricing, stores, selection, home growing, and hash. Prices will be low, more stores will open with more options, cool seeds will flourish, and hash will be everywhere.

But it’s going to be another bear of a year for growers, sellers, and activists. Both Republicans and Democrats love soaking the pot industry with taxes and regulations.  America’s 40 million or so past-month smokers have yet to find their voice and push back.

The wheel of time is set to turn once again. So let’s punch up our annual predictions in the style of asking questions to a Magic 8 Ball. We’ll let you make the pot puns.

Big legislative moves

Will Congress legalize marijuana? My reply is no.

Will the federal government reschedule marijuana? Outlook not so good.

Will Congress further regulate hemp-derived products? Most likely. 

Will the States further regulate hemp-derived products? It is decidedly so.

State legalization in 2025

Will Pennsylvania legalize marijuana? My reply is no.

Will Oklahoma legalize marijuana? My reply is no.

Will Hawaii legalize marijuana? My reply is no.

Will New Hampshire legalize marijuana? Very doubtful.

Will Florida legalize marijuana? My reply is no.

Will more local, state, and federal expungement efforts continue? Outlook good.

Will more local cities and counties decriminalize cannabis? Yes.

Retail

Will more than 100 new dispensaries open in legal US states? It is certain.

Will more delivery, pickup, and drive-through options open up in legal US states? You may rely on it.

Will more lounges open up in legal US states? It is certain.

Will the East Coast states gain stores, farms, and clout in the legal market? Signs point to yes.

Will California cannabis cafe culture hit new heights? As I see it, yes.

Strains & Products

Will blueberry be a hype flavor of 2024? Most likely.

Will Zoap be a hype flavor of 2024? Outlook good.

Will Lemon Cherry Gelato peak? Very doubtful.

Will consumers see a lot more live rosin all-in-one vapes? Yes.

Will consumers see a lot more seeds for sale? Yes.

Will even more of the crop go to fresh-frozen? Most likely.

Will even more of cannabis culture become about hash? As I see it, yes.

Will cannabis prices find their bottom? Don’t count on it.

Will value-added cannabis products like live rosin reach new price heights? Signs point to yes.

Will the home grow movement get bigger? Signs point to yes.

More legislation

Will more cities or states debate and pass THC caps? Most likely.

Will cannabis face continued censorship on social platforms? Better not tell you now.

Will the US government legalize cannabis banking? Unclear, ask again later.

Will cannabis taxes and regulations go up? Signs point to yes.

Will more states try ‘social equity’ laws? Yes.

Will more legal challenges narrow or nullify ‘social equity’ laws? Most likely. 

Will consumers form a big association and find their political voice? Concentrate and try again.

Will Canadian cannabis remain stagnant and over-regulated? Better not tell you now.

See how easy that was? If you don’t like our Predictions, leave one of your own in our survey below. Afterward, get out there and prove us wrong. The future is unwritten. Our fates are what we make it, so go make yours a good one. See you in 2025.

The Thai government is contemplating the relisting of cannabis as a narcotic due to concerns over its recreational use and potential societal harms. This reconsideration comes after cannabis was decriminalized in June 2022, which led to a surge in its availability and use.

Cannabis Conundrum: Thailand Reconsiders Legal Status Amidst Rising Concerns

The recent decriminalization of cannabis in Thailand has ignited a complex debate over its legal status and societal impact. While the policy aimed to boost the medical marijuana industry and provide economic opportunities, the unintended rise in recreational use has sparked discussions about a potential reclassification.

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, a key advocate for the decriminalization, emphasized that the policy was intended to promote medical use, not recreational. However, the current legal framework lacks clear regulations governing recreational use, leading to widespread availability and potential misuse.

The Bhumjaithai Party, led by Anutin, initially pushed for the delisting of cannabis to benefit the medical industry and provide economic opportunities for Thai citizens. However, the subsequent surge in recreational use, particularly among youths, has raised concerns about potential health and social consequences.

Opposition parties have criticized the government for inadequate regulations and are advocating for cannabis to be relisted as a narcotic under the Narcotics Act. They argue that the current situation exposes young people to potential harm and lacks sufficient safeguards.

A recent poll revealed that a majority of Thais support stricter regulations on cannabis use. Concerns have been raised about the potential impact on public health, particularly regarding mental health issues and addiction, especially among youths. Additionally, there are worries about the potential for increased crime and social disorder.

The federal war on marijuana has entered the end game.

today, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) officially moved to re-categorize marijauna as having medical use and a low potential for abuse.

For the first time since 1971, the US federal government is seeking to end cannabis’s designation as a “Schedule I” controlled substance—equivalent to drugs like heroin and PCP. Instead, the US intends to consider marijuana a Schedule III substance—on the same level as codeine.

The Associated Press appears to be the first to report the news, with it being picked up by Marijuana Moment.

Legalization polls in the 70s, and medical legalization polls in the 90s. Cannabis champion and congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) stated in an email:

“If today’s reporting proves true, we will be one step closer to ending the failed war on drugs. Marijuana was scheduled more than 50 years ago based on stigma, not science. The American people have made clear in state after state that cannabis legalization is inevitable. The Biden-Harris Administration is listening.” 

The rescheduling follows a request that President Biden made to US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra in October 2022 to review the scheduling of marijuana under federal law. (Biden had simultaneously issued pardons for federal prisoners convicted on marijuana charges.)

In January, activists learned the US Dept. of Health and Human Services had recommended to the DEA that marijuana move to Schedule III.

The re-scheduling move carries immense consequences, from research opportunities to tax code reform for cannabis businesses. Yet it’s far from a silver bullet: On its own, rescheduling does not decriminalize or legalize cannabis; nor does it facilitate interstate commerce for the industry.

Read on to learn more about the significance of cannabis rescheduling, what it accomplishes, and what it leaves unsolved.

What was so bad about Schedule 1?

Marijuana’s Schedule I has proved catastrophic over the decades. In 1971, with a hefty push from the hardcore prohibitionist President Richard Nixon, the DEA added cannabis to the nascent list of Schedule 1 Controlled Substances. Authorities deemed it to have no medical value, and high potential for abuse. Schedule 1 drugs include heroin, cocaine, and quaaludes.

Police arrested millions of Americans for marijuana since 1971. Drug arrests became the No. 1 type of arrest police made, and pot became the No. 1 type of drug arrest. You could lose your children, housing, education, job, and more under the Schedule I designation.

Also, scientists could not study cannabis easily. Furthermore, a drug’s Schedule 1 status prevents its legalization; even today, states that allow for recreational or medical marijuana sales are technically in violation of federal law.

What will Schedule III change?

According to the DEA’s own definition, Schedule III substances present “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” Cannabis’ new classification puts it on par with ketamine, Tylenol with codeine, and testosterone.

One of the most potentially consequential impacts of rescheduling is also one of the wonkiest: Thanks to a line in federal tax code referred to as 280e, cannabis businesses pay crippling taxes, sometimes upwards of 65-75%. It also prevents businesses from deducting many of their expenses from their taxes. Thanks to rescheduling, the 280e policy will no longer apply; it could open the door to new growth and investment.

As a Schedule III substance, scientists will have easier access to researching cannabis as well. Furthermore, as Marijuana Moment points out, rescheduling could loosen restrictions around federal employees consuming cannabis.

What does rescheduling leave unfixed?

In short, rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III is just a step toward full legalization. It does not decriminalize personal possession in prohibition states like Texas, nor does it facilitate interstate commerce.

 “It is a rather modest step given the strong support among American voters for comprehensive cannabis reform,” said Matthew Schweich, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, the nation’s leading cannabis policy reform organization.

What’s next?

The DEA’s recommendation for rescheduling now goes up for public comment—likely for several months through the General Election on Nov. 4. President Biden will likely campaign on promises kept. One poll shows the incumbent President receiving an 11 percentage-point bump in voter approval for rescheduling. Medical marijuana polls at 90% approval, while Gallup has legalization polling at 70%.

The rescheduling news offers the chance to increase pressure for bigger change as well, said longtime cannabis tax expert Henry Wykowski. He heads to Washington DC in May to lobby for reform, and said this provides ammo.

“This is good opportunity to keep the pressure up to make sure they really do follow through on it this time,” said Wykowski.

Experts react to the news

Experts applauded the DEA’s rescheduling move, and looked back on the hard-fought win.

Brian Vicente helped lead America into legalization from Colorado and is the founding partner of national cannabis law firm Vicente LLP, which has been actively engaged in the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform. He said the move is a big effing deal.

We have entered a new era of dialogue and policy around this historically maligned plant.”

Brian Vicente, Vicente LLP, Colorado

“This is a remarkable about-face by the DEA, which spent decades denying the true medical value of the cannabis plant. While a strong case can be made for removing cannabis from the federal drug schedules entirely, rescheduling marks a huge step forward for commonsense cannabis policy in our country. This action will have massive impacts, both practically for the cannabis industry and symbolically for the reform movement. We have entered a new era of dialogue and policy around this historically maligned plant.”

Shawn Hauser, partner at Vicente LLP who closely follows the federal scheduling process called ther move, “likely the best outcome possible, given the realities of the federal administrative review process. This historic action by the Biden administration has the potential to embolden Congress to finally pass legislation that federally legalizes and regulates cannabis for medical and adult use.”

The top cannabis tax attorney Wykowski affirmed rescheduling offers relief to embattled cannabis licensees. Their taxes would go down. They would be able to take business deductions for the first time.

“[The tax code section 280E] been a terrible, unfair burden on the whole licensed industry—people who are really trying to comply with the law. It favored people in the illicit market who continued to sell without being licensed, regulated, tested, or taxed.”