You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

The hemp industry ended 2025 with a slight decline. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which started at 100 at the end of 2012, has fallen 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th consecutive annual decline.

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS ) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it’s down a lot since late 2020 when it was at $36.50. The 5-year yield at $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 85.2 percent, just shy of a recession.

So far in 2026, the global hemp stock index is unchanged. MSOS, which rose in December, fell 3.0% to $4.58. After last year’s big jump, investors probably aren’t too worried just yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t have, because the realignment is still in progress, and if it passes, it’s very incremental because of the elimination 280E tax. Of course, it remains to be seen whether a realignment will actually happen, and if so, when it will happen.

Investors or traders have rushed to MSOS over the past few years in hopes of a reshuffle. The lift in late December had massive volume, surpassing the volume in August when rumors of a possible realignment under Trump first surfaced. It was also heavier than when the MSOS fell after the last election in 2024. So far in 2026, volume has been fairly low, as seen in this six-month chart:

MSOS is still trading above the 12/11 price, as are most of its stocks. It’s also trading up more than 100% from near its all-time low of $2 set last year. To me, while the stock has fallen well from its recent peak, down 36.8% from its 12/18 intraday high, it looks like it could continue to decline. The recent downturn has not spurred buyers. In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I have very little exposure to MSOs compared to the Global Hemp Stock Index, just 6.6% in both MSOs compared to 25.9%.

The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I’ve discussed before: Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF ) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF ) at 67.7% MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a major debt challengeso far in 2026, it has fallen by 1.4% and moved from the second largest position to the third. Trulieve, the current largest holding, fell 5.6%, while GTI, now the second largest, rose 2.0%. MSOS has not purchased or sold shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.

I have watched MSOS since its day 1 which was in late 2020. Although I was and continue to be highly critical of the way it was run, I commended them for their early efforts. Unfortunately, there are no cannabis investment funds, including ETFs, that come close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share count dramatically over the past year, despite a recent small drawdown. Investors should understand that if it hits redemptions, it could put pressure on the MSO subsector and the price of MSOS.

It is very possible that hemp will be reclassified with the end of 280E taxation. It is also possible that large MSOs will not have to pay past 280E taxes that they did not pay. If 280E goes away and the previous liabilities go away, it will be very positive for MSOs and it will likely eliminate potential MSOS repayments. Of course, if 280E holds, traders stacked in MSOS will have trouble finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of the 280E.

I continue to recommend that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times, as well as recently, that hemp REITs make more senseand I have a lot of exposure to both of them in my modeling portfolio. There are other supporting names that should have upside if the 280E goes away for their customers, but less downside if it stays. Canadian LPs might also make sense. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to suggest that it will.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Growth in cannabis sales was slow in December

Florida’s medical cannabis market is shrinking

Capital increase

Umbrella growth recapitalizes the balance sheet

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

I warned about it here four weeks ago Curaleaf is overrated compared to his peers. Shares had closed at $2.44 and immediately more than doubled two weeks later to a high of $5.05 in 12/18 trading, after closing at $4.70 the day before. On December 12, President Trump’s move to issue an Executive Order to regulate hemp fueled this wild price increase.

Although the conclusion of the 12/4 newsletter was very wrong at first, it turned out as I expected in less than a month. Curaleaf garnered just 3.3%, while the other four major MSOs garnered 25.2% to 50.8%. MSOS, which has a lot of Curaleaf in it, scored 27.9%.

Of course, Curaleaf stock has had a fantastic year, up 61.5% in 2025. Since 11/05/24 (election), it’s down 19.2%, the smallest decline of the five largest MSOs. Looking at the action since 4/30/24, the peak of the cannabis sector and the day the DEA said it was moving forward with the reclassification process, it took out the second of the five largest MSOs. Compared to its two peers, which join CURLF and represent 67.8% of MSOS, it fared the worst and performed slightly worse than MSOS’ decline of 58.1%.

Curaleaf has a worse balance sheet than its peers, and the company was unable to refinance its 2026 debt. At the end of the third quarter, Curaleaf had $456.8 million due on 12/15/26, and suggested on the Q2 conference call in August that it would refinance by the end of the year.

I would like to provide an update on our upcoming debt refinancing. Over the past few months, we have partnered with a wide range of investors, including public and private credit funds, as well as regional banks. Initial feedback has been very encouraging, with strong indicative interest and constructive dialogue.

Boris Jordan, President and CEO of Curaleaf

We remain focused on securing the most favorable outcome for Curaleaf consistent with our long-term capital strategy. We are on track to complete the refinancing by the end of the year and are confident that it will increase our financial flexibility and support our growth priorities.

Curaleaf announced a new debt deal in October, increasing its revolving credit facility with Needham Bank by $60 million to $100 million. Its third-quarter SEDAR filings showed cash of $107.5 million and total borrowings of $551 million. The uncertain tax position of 510.7 million dollars is not included in the loans. Taking all its assets and liabilities into account, Curaleaf reported equity of $814.8 million, but intangible assets of $1.03 billion and goodwill of $634.0 million. Taking these into account equity, Curaleaf had tangible equity of -$853.6 million. It’s unclear why Curaleaf hasn’t announced a 2026 extension of this large debt, but perhaps lenders were concerned about the balance sheet. Of course, it may have been refinanced, but it has not been announced yet. Also, maybe the company is waiting because the realignment, if it goes through, will do away with 280E taxation. Investors, however, should be prepared for a decline in the current ratio. At the end of Q3, Curaleaf had current assets of 1.5X current liabilities, but the ratio will be well below 1X in Q4. This may alarm investors.

As I said, maybe they have dealt with the issue of debt and haven’t announced it yet, or maybe they will soon. If the reshuffle doesn’t go through, this could be a big challenge for Curaleaf. Its peers have done a decent job of extending their debt maturities. If Curaleaf cannot find a lender, it may sell shares to raise funds. The company reported 772.2 million shares outstanding in early November, and I estimate 803.1 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted cash basis. If they sold 200 million shares at $2.52, that would pay off the debt and leave the balance sheet in much better shape. The stock is well off its all-time low of $0.68 set earlier this year, and it looks very expensive relative to its peers, currently trading at an enterprise value of 8X forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

I hope the 280E taxation goes away, and this would be great for Curaleaf if it does, but investors should be aware of the potential risks of the stock. Investors looking to buy an MSO have better options than Curaleaf, which is quite risky.

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Hemp stocks increase in December, but end 2025 and decrease again

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

Hemp stocks, as measured by the Global Hemp Stock Index, were quite volatile in 2024 and then again in 2025 as well. The index fell 7.5% in December last year to close 15.2% lower for the year, and it was also a poor start to 2025. It hit a new all-time high of 4.97 on the last day of March, before falling back in early April. The index gained 11.5% in April, but ended the second quarter from there, closing at 5.02. Q3 was strong with increases in July and August, and September, which started with a pullback, ended with another increase before pulling back on the last day. The index ended September down just a little, before falling in October and even lower in November. It rose sharply in December, rising 8.4% to 6.59. While stocks rose, 13 of the index’s 28 names declined for the month.

After collapsing 21.8% in late 2024 to 6.88 in Q4, the index fell heavily in Q1 and then marginally in Q2. The global hemp stock index, which now has 28 members, fell 27% year-to-date in June. After a 53.0 percent rally in the third quarter, the index increased by 11.6 percent compared to last year. It fell 14.2% in the 4th quarter and was down 4.2% for the full year.

Since its peak in February 2021, the global hemp stock index is down 92.9% from a closing high of 92.48.

The 3 strongest names in December, each an MSO, are all up more than 58%;

Each of these stocks were significantly up year-over-year, and Q4 earnings were positive for Trulieve.

December’s 3 weakest names are all down more than 8%;

All of these stocks were down year-over-year, and Q4 was brutal for each.

The index has been recalculated as of the close of 12/31/31 and is based on data as of 12/23/23. For Q1, the index will have 27 names, down from 28 names, with three removals and two additions. AFCG, LIEN and SHFS are excluded from the index. Akanda (AKAN) and cbdMD (YCBD) are rejoining the index.

We will summarize the performance of the index again in a month. In April, we historically combined the two articles, and we update here the other indexes that New Cannabis Ventures continues to maintain: the American Cannabis Operator Index, the Ancillary Cannabis Index, and the Canadian Cannabis LP Index.

American Hemp Operator Index

ACOI rallied in December, rising 43.7% to 13.18. It rose 123.6% to 12.99 in the third quarter and ended the year up 57.7% year to date from 8.36. The large AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ) was a big laggard, up 23.9%.

December’s strongest stock was Trulieve, which gained 61.2%. The weakest, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA ), rose 10.4%.

In January, the index will have eleven members, with the additions of Ascend Wellness (OTC: AAWH ), Grown Rogue (GRUSF ), and Vireo Health (OTC: VREOF ).

Auxiliary cannabis index

Ancillary commodities rose 2.4% in December as the index reached 11.09. The index, which rose 14.5% to 12.72 in the third quarter, fell 12.8% in the fourth quarter. It decreased by 19.5% from 13.77 in 2025.

The strongest performing stock in December was NewLake Capital (OTC: NLCP ), which rose 24.1%. The weakest, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (NASDAQ: REFI ), fell 3.9%.

In January, the index will have the same eight members and two that are returning: iPower (NASDAQ: IPW ) and Chicago Atlantic BDC (NASDAQ: LIEN ).

Canadian Hemp LP Index

Canadian LPs rose 5.4% in December as the index fell to 59.01. The index, which increased by 78.4% in the third quarter, reaching 73.56. Declined 19.8% in Q4, but rose 17.8% in 2025 from 50.11.

The strongest Canadian LP in December was MTL Cannabis (CSE: MTL ), which jumped 62.5% after receiving a buy order. The weakest performer was Aurora Cannabis, down 10.3%.

In January, the index will have the same thirteen members.