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The End of Big Alcohol Is Coming?

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A recent analysis by TD Cowen’s analyst, Vivien Azer, sheds light on a shift in consumer behavior, highlighting the competition between legal cannabis and alcohol sales.

 

Over the past five years, alcohol sales in states where cannabis is legal have lagged behind by 100-150 basis points, according to Azer.

 

In terms of future growth, Azer’s research, initially reported by the Green Market Report (GMR), predicts a substantial surge in U.S. cannabis sales, reaching $29 billion by 2023. This growth is expected to maintain a robust 7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the next five years.

 

As the first senior Wall Street analyst to cover the emerging cannabis industry in 2014, Azer envisions a paradigm shift, anticipating the cannabis sector to attract 18 million new users while potentially experiencing a decline of 2 million alcohol users.

 

The report highlights Colorado as a leader in evolving consumer preferences, securing an 11% market share for cannabis, a notable increase from a mere 4% five years ago.

 

Azer emphasizes a significant trend, with two-thirds of cannabis consumers admitting to reducing alcohol consumption. In the 18 to 25-year-old demographic, cannabis retention rose to 68%, while alcohol dipped to 74% in 2022.

 

States with legal cannabis access were found to underperform by over 100 basis points, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. The report indicates a 140 basis points difference in select Nielsen states, while the 5-year alcohol volume Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for adult-use cannabis states lagged behind non-cannabis states by 150 basis points in IWSR data.

 

Market opportunities and stock implications align with this transformative trend. Azer suggests short-term resilience for alcohol stocks but warns of potential impacts on beer preferences among recent cannabis users, which have dropped by six points. On a positive note, spirits like tequila and bourbon are expected to thrive in this evolving market.

 

The analysis draws from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, revealing that over 47% of past-month cannabis consumers use cannabis almost daily. Azer notes that past-month cannabis users who drink alcohol are more likely to intentionally abstain from drinking compared to those who have never used cannabis.

 

Azer also points to declining soda consumption and increased scrutiny of energy drinks, creating potential growth avenues and offering investors new entry points into evolving markets.

 

Looking ahead, the cannabis industry is projected to experience an 11% growth in 2023, in stark contrast to the more modest 3% growth expected for alcohol. Azer forecasts total U.S. legal cannabis retail sales to reach $37 billion by 2027.

 

Alcohol Sales Underperform in Legal Cannabis States

 

The comprehensive analysis conducted by TD Cowen analyst Vivien Azer underscores a consistent underperformance of alcohol sales in states where cannabis has achieved legal status, revealing a nuanced clash between these two major consumer industries. Over the past half-decade, Azer’s research indicates a significant lag of 100-150 basis points in alcohol sales within these cannabis-legalized states. This noteworthy trend challenges conventional expectations regarding the relationship between legal cannabis and alcohol consumption, raising questions about the potential impact on the alcoholic beverage industry.

 

The discrepancy in sales figures prompts an exploration of the factors contributing to this underperformance. A variety of elements, including shifting consumer preferences, cultural changes, and evolving societal attitudes toward substances, could be at play. Azer’s findings suggest that as cannabis gains mainstream acceptance, it may be diverting consumer spending away from traditional alcohol purchases. Understanding the nuances of this underperformance is essential for stakeholders in both the cannabis and alcohol sectors, as it hints at a broader shift in consumer behavior that extends beyond mere legal compliance.

 

This trend also opens the door to considerations of regulatory and market dynamics. As legal cannabis becomes more accessible, policymakers and industry players may need to reassess existing regulatory frameworks and marketing strategies within the alcohol sector. The data underscores the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and highlights the potential need for strategic adjustments within the alcoholic beverage industry to remain competitive in the evolving landscape shaped by the legalization of cannabis.

 

A Leader in Cannabis Market Share

 

Colorado emerges as a trailblazer in the evolving landscape of legal cannabis, securing a remarkable 11% market share for cannabis—a substantial leap from a mere 4% just five years ago. This shift positions Colorado as a vanguard in understanding and capitalizing on changing consumer preferences. A closer examination of Colorado’s success offers valuable insights into the factors that contribute to the state’s prominence in the cannabis market.

 

One key aspect contributing to Colorado’s leading role is its early and comprehensive adoption of legal cannabis measures. Being among the first states to embrace cannabis legalization, Colorado has cultivated a mature and diverse cannabis market that caters to a broad spectrum of consumers. The state’s regulatory framework, licensing structure, and proactive approach to addressing challenges have fostered an environment conducive to the growth of the cannabis industry.

 

Beyond regulatory factors, Colorado’s success can also be attributed to a cultural shift and increased social acceptance of cannabis. The state has become a focal point for cannabis tourism, attracting consumers from across the country. Understanding the unique dynamics at play in Colorado provides valuable insights for other regions considering or undergoing cannabis legalization. As other states explore similar paths, the lessons learned from Colorado’s experiences could shape the future of the legal cannabis market on a broader scale.

 

Bottom Line

 

In essence, Vivien Azer’s analysis illuminates a significant shift in consumer behavior, with legal cannabis impacting alcohol sales in cannabis-legalized states over the past five years. The underperformance of alcohol sales by 100-150 basis points prompts a critical exploration of the factors contributing to this trend, suggesting a potential redirection of consumer spending fueled by shifting preferences and societal attitudes toward substances. Colorado’s remarkable ascent to an 11% cannabis market share stands as a testament to the success of early adoption and comprehensive regulatory measures, offering valuable insights for other regions navigating the evolving cannabis landscape. As the cannabis industry continues to mature, this transformative trend underscores the need for strategic adjustments in regulatory frameworks, marketing strategies, and product offerings within both the cannabis and alcohol sectors, shaping the future dynamics of these closely intertwined markets.

 

THE DECLINE OF DRINKING, READ ON…

CANNABIS TRENDS VS ALCOHOL USE

NO MORE BOOZE IN THE FUTURE? – TRENDS SAY CANNABIS WILL TAKE OVER!



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How Legal is CBD, Really?

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The legality of CBD remains a subject of considerable debate. Despite the fact that many CBD companies[1]  have now existed for more than a decade, the legal context surrounding this non-intoxicating cannabinoid remains muddy for the average shopper. In this guide, we’ll explore the legality of CBD in detail, examining the implications along the way.

History of CBD Laws

Extracts of Cannabis sativa have been widely prepared and sold for centuries beyond count. It’s unclear exactly when human beings and cannabis intersected, but it’s believed cannabis has been a part of daily life at least as long as apples and potatoes.

 

It’s only recently that laws have turned discriminatory toward cannabis. Starting in Europe in the 19th century, this anti-cannabis fervor eventually reached the United States, spurring the “Reefer Madness” craze that ultimately led to cannabis being illegalized with the 1937 Marihuana Tax Act.

 

In 1970, the Controlled Substances Act sealed the deal, and hemp was not grown in considerable acreage until academic pilot programs began resurfacing in the early 2000s. By the early 2010s, legal loopholes were identified at the federal level that allowed CBD commerce to emerge online.

 

In 2014 and 2018, the United States Congress gave CBD the nod with Farm Bills that facilitated hemp cultivation and commerce. Not much has changed in the ensuing years, however, leading to a hemp economy that has begun to stagnate in some sectors.

Recent Developments in CBD Legislation

Cannabis-related measures continue to be proposed at both the state and federal level. Few of them focus specifically on CBD, however, which remains in a gray area loosely delineated by the 2018 Farm Bill and subsequent clarifications from the FDA, DEA, and USDA.

 

It appears the situation with CBD will remain unclear federally for the foreseeable future. There seems to be an “unwritten rule” that upstanding CBD companies will not run afoul of federal agencies as long as their conduct meets a certain unofficial threshold.

 

The FDA continues to issue warning letters to CBD companies that violate the dictates of the 2018 Farm Bill, but enforcement is rare and usually amounts to relatively small fines. At the state level, legislators continue to evolve their stances on CBD and related products, mainly in an effort to siphon tax revenue.

Potential Future CBD Regulations

Over time, the slew of largely unrelated hemp and cannabis laws continuously being produced by Congress may begin to amount to a comprehensive federal stance on cannabinoids. At this current juncture, however, cannabinoid regulations ever more commonly have less to do with the shopper’s interests and more to do with securing government revenue.

 

The ideal solution that hemp proponents have expounded for years, namely that CBD be judged an over-the-counter substance, appears further and further away as time goes by. At present, it seems the de facto approach is to not address the underlying legality of cannabinoids but to instead determine how best they should be taxed.

 

It might not be an ideal situation, but for the average CBD producer, this is still good news. There was a time in the not-so-distant past when it seemed the federal government was on the verge of attempting to ban CBD products outright. Though the current circumstances may remain muddy, at least there’s no longer any indication that the federal government is antithetical to hemp and CBD overall.

CBD Legality: The Bottom Line

As we finish up, it’s important to carefully address a few final points:

CBD regulations vary by state

For most intents and purposes, CBD can be considered federally legal. Each state has its own laws and regulations pertaining to CBD and other cannabinoids, however, some of which are more restrictive than others. CBD laws can be restrictive both in states that are firmly anti-cannabis and in those that have newer adult-use cannabis industries that suffer from direct competition with online CBD vendors.

No medical claims

CBD is certainly not legal when it is advertised as offering medical benefits. It’s fine to reference evidence that CBD might be useful for a particular ailment. To outright say that CBD treats or cures a medical condition, is tantamount to asking for the scrutiny of the federal government.

Professionalism first

The CBD companies that are currently succeeding are those that go above and beyond. Clean products, transparent communication, impeccable certification: these are the hallmarks of the future’s top CBD brands. Focusing on quality will make it less likely to flub regulations.

Respect CBD

CBD is a powerful compound, and it comes from a plant that has an amazing power to heal. Put CBD’s benefits first and foremost, and you’ll find that your company naturally begins to fit the parameters that both shoppers and regulators approve of most.



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California Cities: Prohibition Doesn’t Work

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California has a population of nearly 40 million, six years of cannabis licensing, but only has about 1,200 licensed dispensaries. These stores are mostly spread out in highly populated areas like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and so on. The problem is that many California cities still prohibit cannabis licensing, even in places where a majority of the locals approved the state’s recreational cannabis program in 2016. This is a massive problem and is one of the key reasons the illegal market thrives. Let’s look at why that is the case and what these cities can do to change it.

Why prohibition doesn’t work

When the government prohibits something, there is an existing market for that thing, and a fear on the part of the government (justifiable or otherwise) that failure to prohibit it would lead to some kind of societal harm. Because there is an existing market for the thing, there is necessarily some kind of demand for it. If the government bans the thing, some people will realize that the potential cost (prison, fines, stigma, etc.) outweighs the benefit, and demand will go down.

But others will find that the benefit outweighs the potential cost, no matter how high it is — which is why people still roll the dice in countries like Singapore that will execute drug traffickers. So while prohibition may decrease demand, it won’t end it. And so long as there is some demand, again, some people will roll the dice.

This is exactly what has happened in the decades since cannabis was prohibited. If prohibition were an effective deterrent, then you would expect there not to be a high level of use or incarceration. But we’ve seen the opposite. There have been millions of people arrested and incarcerated for violating the Controlled Substances Act and state-law counterparts. It’s pretty clear then that these laws don’t have their intended effects, which brings me to the next point.

What problems are California cities creating?

When California voters passed the state’s flagship recreational licensing law in 2016, California cities were given an immense amount of control over the new industry. Perhaps realizing the initiative would face strong opposition if it took power away from cities, the drafters included provisions that allowed California cities to completely ban cannabis activities within their limits. These provisions led to local bans in vast swathes of the state.

While cities have slowly “come online” over the years, there are still vast swathes of the state without legal access to cannabis. In fact, many cities even sued the state when it tried to officially sanction statewide delivery rules. What this means is that there are still many California cities that prohibit cannabis.

If those cities are trying to eliminate local cannabis markets, I’ve got a bridge to sell them. Prohibition didn’t work before the state legalized cannabis, and it certainly won’t work when the state won’t lift a finger on enforcement. California cities that keep their bans alive are only bolstering their illegal markets and making it more difficult for the legal market to survive.

What California cities should be doing to combat the illegal market

I recently corresponded with Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy, who believes that the state needs 4,000 to 5,000 dispensaries to carry the legal market. And those dispensaries shouldn’t just be in Los Angeles or San Diego. They’d need to be dispersed across the state so that people have access and the legal dispensaries could compete with the illegal ones (and ideally put them out of business). If more California cities don’t end prohibition, illegal dispensaries and delivery services will continue to operate whether they like it or not.

That said, there are other things that California cities can do to combat the illegal market without allowing brick-and-mortar sales. One big one would be to allow outside delivery services to deliver into their borders. While the state did pass a law attempting to expand statewide access to medical cannabis deliveries, that fails to include the much larger recreational market. It also likely excludes potential medical cannabis purchasers who don’t want to or don’t have the resources to obtain a physician’s recommendation or medical marijuana ID card (MMIC).

Expanding retail deliveries would be a win-win for the legal market and cities alike. Yet for some reason, California cities fought it tooth and nail. While those cities may have thought they won, the real victory belonged to the illegal market, which continues to grow and grow.


If the legal market is to survive, California cities are going to have to make compromises when it comes to cannabis prohibition. After all, cannabis is still being sold within their borders. For some of my thoughts on California’s problematic illegal market, check out these posts:





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The Good ‘Dirty Little Secret’ about Weed

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You may remember that Justin Timberlake once said, “Some people are just better on weed”. Well, if he was referring to people with ADHD or ADD, he may be right.  While many studies on marijuana for ADD or ADHD show great results to help people with “scatter” brain start to focus, UFC Sean O’Malley is the latest person to preach the plants’ benefits for focus.

Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley breaks the stereotype associated with marijuana users. At 29, he incorporates marijuana into his training regimen to achieve a state of intense focus, which appears to yield positive results.

 

In an interview with Demetrious Johnson, O’Malley clarified misconceptions about his marijuana use: “Contrary to popular belief, I don’t consume as much as people assume.” Asserting his professionalism as an athlete, he claims to excel in managing his recovery compared to others in the UFC, attributing it to his disciplined habits and routines.

 

Recognizing the potential drawbacks of smoking on lung health and conditioning, O’Malley adopts measures to safeguard his fitness standards. He opts for vaporizing marijuana, particularly during training camps, using a high-quality vaporizer once daily instead of traditional methods like joints, bongs, pipes, or dabbing.

 

O’Malley reveals that during specific training sessions, such as longer, lower-intensity workouts lasting up to 60 minutes, he trains while under the influence, leveraging marijuana to enhance his focus. However, he acknowledges the importance of using it as a tool responsibly, cautioning against falling into unproductive habits like aimlessly watching YouTube while high.

 

The upcoming UFC 299 main event on March 9 sees O’Malley defending his 135-pound championship title for the first time against his rival, Marlon “Chito” Vera. Seeking redemption for his only career loss, which Vera inflicted upon him at UFC 252 in August 2020, O’Malley is determined to emerge victorious.

 

The Science Behind O’Malley’s Approach

 

Sean O’Malley’s use of cannabis to increase concentration during training begs interesting concerns concerning the relationship between marijuana use and athletics. Cannabis includes chemicals like THC and CBD that interact with the brain’s endocannabinoid system to influence a variety of physiological activities, despite being frequently linked to relaxation and altered perception.

 

Studies suggest that low to moderate doses of THC may improve focus, creativity, and cognitive performance in some individuals, potentially explaining O’Malley’s reported ability to “hyper-focus” during workouts. Additionally, CBD, another prominent compound in cannabis, has been linked to reduced anxiety and improved recovery, which could complement O’Malley’s training regimen.

 

However, the effects of cannabis on athletic performance remain complex and multifaceted. While some athletes may experience benefits in terms of concentration and relaxation, others may encounter impairments in coordination, reaction time, and cardiovascular function. Furthermore, individual responses to cannabis can vary widely based on factors such as dosage, method of consumption, and personal tolerance levels.

 

Experts caution that while cannabis may have its place as a performance-enhancing tool for certain athletes, careful consideration must be given to its potential drawbacks, including the risk of dependence, negative effects on lung health, and legal implications, particularly in professional sports settings.

 

O’Malley’s method offers as an engaging case study for negotiating the complex link between cannabis use and sports performance as researchers continue to investigate the physiological and psychological impacts of cannabis. O’Malley starts a wider discussion about the place of cannabis in contemporary sports training and competition by illuminating the science underlying his unorthodox training techniques.

 

Managing Marijuana Use in Professional Athletics

 

Navigating the use of marijuana in professional athletics involves a delicate balance between personal choice, regulatory compliance, and performance optimization. Despite evolving attitudes toward cannabis, organizations like the UFC maintain stringent anti-doping policies, prohibiting its use above specified thresholds during competition periods. Athletes such as Sean O’Malley must therefore carefully manage their marijuana consumption to ensure adherence to these guidelines while still leveraging its potential benefits for training and recovery.

 

For O’Malley and others incorporating cannabis into their routines, managing marijuana use requires strategic planning and adherence to regulatory standards. This involves selecting consumption methods and timing consumption to minimize the risk of exceeding allowable THC thresholds during testing. O’Malley’s transparency about his usage patterns and advocacy for responsible consumption practices set a precedent for athletes navigating the complex landscape of drug policy in professional sports.

 

Professional sports may see more changes in policies and attitudes as talks about decriminalizing and legalizing cannabis continue. Athletes who are willing to share their personal stories and advocate for more nuanced approaches to drug policy, such as O’Malley, are vital in influencing this conversation. Going forward, managing the changing link between cannabis usage and sports performance will need constant communication and cooperation between players, coaches, and regulating authorities.

 

O’Malley’s Training Rituals: Balancing Intensity and Recovery

 

Gain insight into Sean O’Malley’s methodical strategy to integrating cannabis into his routine while striking a balance between intensity and recuperation by learning about his training rituals. To maximize effectiveness in the octagon, O’Malley’s training regimen combines focused rest times with intense sessions in a calculated manner.

 

The understanding that efficient recuperation is equally as important as intense exercise is at the heart of O’Malley’s training philosophy. O’Malley makes sure that his body can adjust and get stronger in response to the demands of his training routine by using restorative habits like healthy eating, drinking enough of water, and getting enough sleep. When utilized responsibly, cannabis is another weapon in O’Malley’s toolbox that he can employ to improve concentrate during longer, lower-intensity sessions without jeopardizing his recuperation.

 

O’Malley is a perfect example of the value of an all-encompassing approach to sports training as he strikes a balance between effort and recuperation. O’Malley reduces the chance of injury and fatigue while simultaneously optimizing his performance capacity by placing equal emphasis on restorative techniques and physical activity. O’Malley’s training regimens are always being improved, and his techniques are proof of the need of smart, individualized approaches to physical preparation for success in the UFC and other competitions.

 

Bottom Line

 

Sean O’Malley’s pioneering approach to incorporating cannabis into his training regimen challenges stereotypes and opens up discussions about its potential benefits and drawbacks in professional athletics. His transparency and advocacy for responsible usage set a precedent for athletes navigating complex drug policies while seeking performance optimization. As attitudes toward cannabis continue to evolve, ongoing dialogue and collaboration among athletes, coaches, and governing bodies will be crucial in shaping policies that balance regulatory compliance with individual health and performance goals. O’Malley’s dedication to balancing intensity and recovery underscores the importance of personalized, holistic approaches to training, serving as a blueprint for athletes striving for success in high-level competitions like the UFC.

 

CANNABIS AND ADD/ADHD, READ ON…

CANNABIS USER HAVE ADHD

50% OF CANNABIS USERS SUFFER FROM ADD OR ADHD? WHAT?



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