You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

Last week when I was pointing out how overpriced Curaleaf is, I mentioned that the ETF MSOS had a redemption on 12/2 and then it had another redemption on 12/4. Shares traded down 1.3% for the week. They are down 3.4% from their peak in mid-November. However, the stock is up 39.6% year-to-date.

The ETF ended the week slightly leveraged, as it was invested in hemp stocks at 102.8% of its NAV, although sales were made this week. While Curaleaf rallied 9.3% after my piece last week, MSOS actually fell 0.5% to $3.67. Looking at the 6 stocks that have more than 5% exposure, it is the only one that is up, while the rest are down at least 2.8% to 6.8%. These six stocks include the five largest ETFs and also the Glass House brands. Here’s MSOS and its six current holdings, which make up 88.5% of the ETF so far in 2025:

I remain very concerned about the high concentration of MSOS to name just a few. The ETF is down 3.5% this year, while the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index is down 11.6%. The top three, led by CURLF at 29.5%, includes Trulieve, which I think is currently overpriced relative to peers at 21.2%, and Green Thumb Industries, which I like relative to peers at 20.9%. There is 71.6% in just three stocks.

If MSOS receives more redemptions, it will likely sell some of its large positions. So far, with MSOS’s shares outstanding down 3.4% since mid-November, sales of its shares have been made. MSOS reduced its exposure to shares of Curaleaf by 3.4%, TCNNF by 3.4% and GTBIF by 3.0%. We are nearing the end of the year and this bad trade could end badly. Of course, MSOS may hold for the next few weeks, but it’s already down 34.1% since closing at its 2025 high of $5.57 on 8/29. Redemptions could lead to a dire sale of his holdings.

The latest repayments are not the first, as there were more significant repayments from late 2022 to early 2023. There were also a few small repayments in early 2025. Given the year-over-year growth of the past two years, it was on the rise in the second half of 2024, likely tied to Florida’s election-legalization hopes. from medical to also for adults.

Currently up nearly 40% over the past year, that’s a high rise that has already had a big impact on MSOS’s price. At its peak in August, it was up 55% over the previous year. The world of cannabis investors has become much smaller, leaving the entire industry, including MSOS and MSOs, less liquid.

A potential reshuffle by the Trump administration has excited traders who like MSOS because it’s one security that trades higher and has options. That play started in mid-August before the big news, as someone started buying MSOS shares in early July. Both the number of shares increased and so did the price, and trading volumes also increased. Despite the rise in shares outstanding, MSOS is down year-on-year, although it could fall much further if the restructuring announced under discussion four months ago does not take place. The latest excitement in MSOS 2024 saw it tumble 70.6% from the close on 11/05/24, when the election took place, to its all-time intraday low of 2.02 set in early April.

How MSOS does will ultimately be up to him 280E tax leaving. Otherwise, expect more Widow-like situations. Last week I discussed Curaleaf’s large amount of debt due in 2026 and this is something to watch.

If 280E stays, it will be bad for all MSOs and this ETF. I keep thinking that some of the Canadian LPs are safer than the MSO’s and they can be collected more. I also see some ancillary firms that would benefit greatly if their clients faced less heavy taxation. MSOS fell 23.4% in Q4, while the Global Hemp Stock Index fell 20.8%. If realignment doesn’t happen, this pressure on hemp stocks, especially on IPOs, could get much worse.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Cannabis sales fell in November

Florida’s medical cannabis market continues to struggle

Capital increase

After paying off the old debt, Trulieve starts a new debt deal

M&A:

Cronos Group to buy Dutch hemp company

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

What a tough month it has been for the cannabis industry so far. While not as bad as last November, the Global Hemp Stock Index is down 16% this month, and at 5.74 it is now down 16.6% year-to-date. I’ve been very cautious with my model portfolio at 420 Investor, which is down 2.6% so far in 2025, and I’ve been cautious here as well.

In August, the market rallied after President Trump said he was considering rescheduling cannabis. There has been no action for more than three months. If cannabis is moved to schedule III, it will disappear 280E tax. I called for it loudly in late 2022 in a newsletter here about essentials for hemp stocks.

I warned in the newsletter after Labor Day that several hemp stocks were in danger of falling significantlyand many have. I shared the Q3 earnings for the 23 stocks that were in the Global Hemp Stock Index at the time. The index now has 28 names, as we detailed back in late September two shares are subtracted and seven are added. In that newsletter from early September, I named 8 stocks that I was very concerned about. Here’s how they’ve performed since then.

While not all of them declined, as Village Farms continued to grow, the remaining seven were down at least 12.3%. The eight stocks I alerted readers to fell an average of 18.6%. The Global Hemp Stock Index fell 17.9%, while the MSOS ETF fell 35.1%. It is now down 21.5% year to date and remains too much of a risk for what it is investing in. In fact, there was redemption yesterday, with outstanding shares down 0.7%. Shares of 187.21 million were still up 43.4% year-to-date, with most of the increase coming in the third quarter.

Here is the full list of Global Hemp Stock Index members and their change in Q4 so far:

The 28 stocks fell an average of 25.3%, which is how much the index has fallen since it’s flat, with an average decline of 28.3%. MSOS is down 37.6% so far in the 4th quarter. The eight stocks I warned about in early September have one gainer, Village Farmers, but the other seven are all down more than the index. I’ve written negative articles on Seeking Alpha about several of these, including RYM, SNDL, and TLRY recently.

In my 420 Investor model portfolio, I currently have four stocks that are down more than 30% in Q4 and have gained in each of the positions this week. As it relates to the eight stocks I invited, I am no longer so negative on one of them (Canopy Growth, which I updated in an article published today looking for Alpha). The hemp sector has been very volatile, but it still appears to be in a bear market despite the huge rally from the lows.

Hemp stocks are crashing, but for many of them for good reasons from my perspective. The industry as a whole faces challenges, and there is no progress on two potential catalysts that I called for here three years ago: the elimination of 280E taxation, and large exchanges starting to list US hemp operators. Investors can make money by investing in the industry if 280E taxation is removed and other opportunities remain for companies outside the MSO space. However, investing in cannabis is quite risky.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

A change in Illinois hemp data suggests much lower sales

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El

You are reading this week’s edition of New Cannabis Ventures, a weekly magazine we have published since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve, as well as links to the most important news of the week. We no longer email them like we used to, but post this and all newsletters on our website here.

friends,

A year ago, people were extremely excited about the American hemp industry. President Biden had made his 2022 proposal and was pushing realignment, and it was underway. Also, Florida was on the verge of legalization for adults. The Global Hemp Stock Index closed at 8.22 on 10/31 and is now down 14.7% to close at 7.01 on 10/29, up just 1.9% year-to-date. Big ETF MSOS, which recently closed at 4.52, a premium to net asset value of 4.48, is up 18.6% year-to-date but down 31.5% since the end of October a year ago. Looking at the 5 largest MSOs since then, they have all declined;

In 2025, they all increased except for Green Thumb Industries, which decreased by 14.1%. GTI has the best balance sheet of these five companies. The worst balance belongs to Curaleaf, which is down just 1% since last Halloween and is up a staggering 83.3% in 2025.

In my opinion, things can get very scary. It is not clear to me who is doing this, but someone is playing a big game with MSOS. The ETF has seen its share count grow 44.2% so far in 2025, which is a huge increase. MSOs have very low valuations and have fallen badly in the last almost five years after peaking in early 2021, but if the 280E taxation remains, they could be crushed by their balance sheets and cash flows.

Games are moving out of the MSO space, with many traders rolling the dice on Tilray Brands. Over the past month, the stock has averaged more than 108 million shares in a day’s trading. The stock is up 2.3% in 2025, in contrast to the Global Hemp Stock Index, but it has been volatile. Shares fell 41.4% after hitting a 52-week high after the company reported its fiscal quarter results on 10/9. Even with this big drop, it’s 288% above its all-time low in June. Sales and profits aren’t growing much, but the number of shares is certainly up. Oh, but it’s a collection of memes…

Last week’s newsletter included a table of annual returns for the 28 stocks in the Global Hemp Stock Index. Nine rose more than 20% and six fell more than 20%. A week later, there are still nine that have gained more than 20% (the same nine) and six that are down more than 20% (five previous members and one new member). Looking at the nine big winners, several had a tough week, falling after a more than 0.3% drop in the Global Hemp Stock Index;

Seven of these nine big winners in 2025 were down in October, and five were down more than the Global Hemp Stock Index this month. Trick, friends! Watch out for goblins.

Sincerely,

Alan:

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published last week.

Exclusives

Canadian hemp sales hit record highs in August

Financial:

Verano Q3 revenue down 6%

Follow Alan for real-time updates X.com:. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest group of cannabis investors and entrepreneurs. LinkedIn:.

View: Public Hemp Company Revenue and Earnings Trackingwhich ranks the highest-earning hemp stocks.

Stay on top of the most important communications from public companies by watching what’s coming cannabis investor calendar.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as an online community founder 420 Investorthe first and still the largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. time New Cannabis Ventureshe is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before turning his attention to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst with more than two decades of research and portfolio management experience. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 Looking for Alphawhere he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and frequent source Media including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan. Twitter: |: Facebook |: LinkedIn: |: El