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No Federal Legalization, No Problem -$71,000,000,000 in Legal Cannabis by 2030 Says NFD?

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Gary Allen, CEO of New Frontier Data, announced the release of the 2023 U.S. Cannabis Report: Market Updates & Projections, which provides insights into the current and future state of the American cannabis market. The report is sponsored by Cannacare Docs and includes information on sales, consumers, supply, and pricing for both adult-use and medical cannabis. Allen predicts a promising future for the industry, citing the emergence of new markets to offset the stabilization of established ones.

 

According to New Frontier Data’s estimates, even with a potential slowdown in new market growth, the industry can expect a healthy compound annual growth rate of nine percent through 2030. In fact, with nine states currently pursuing adult-use legalization and nine more looking to legalize medical cannabis, the market growth could be even more robust.

 

Cannabis Industry Sales Growth Projections

In 2022, strong consumer demand in the latest operational, legal state markets fueled annual legal cannabis sales in the U.S. to an approximate total of $30 billion. These states are projected to experience growth in yearly sales, with estimates exceeding $35 billion in 2023. If state-level legalization efforts continue to outpace federal policy reform, sales are projected to reach a whopping $71 billion by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of 12%.

 

The legal cannabis industry in the U.S. is experiencing significant growth due to several converging factors. Firstly, new legal revenues are generated by state markets that have recently reformed their cannabis laws and established retail markets for high-THC products. Secondly, there is sustained demand growth in legal states as consumers switch from unregulated to legal sources.

 

Lastly, there is an overall increase in cannabis consumption throughout the country as more people recognize the therapeutic benefits of cannabis, and usage becomes more normalized and destigmatized. Additionally, as cannabis is diversified for more medical and wellness uses, it further contributes to the industry’s growth.

The regulatory structure in each market has been a critical driver of size and growth for the legal cannabis industry in states that have legalized adult use on top of an existing medical cannabis program. Some of the crucial distinctions that have had the most significant impact on sales in the legal market include the chosen integration approach for retail access, the availability and accessibility of retail outlets, and the maturity level of the existing medical market.

 

Additionally, effective tax differences between medical and adult-use programs, ease of entry for new participants in medical markets, and product type restrictions between markets are all factors that can impact sales. Lastly, home cultivation/caregiver laws also play a role in the overall success of the legal cannabis industry.

 

The Growing U.S. Cannabis Consumer Base

By 2023, legal and unregulated markets are expected to have around 54 million U.S. adults consuming cannabis at least once. This figure is projected to increase by approximately 4% annually for the next eight years, with an estimated 69 million U.S. consumers by 2030.

 

It is worth noting that among the top 10 states with the highest number of cannabis consumers, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are expected to legalize adult-use markets soon. Moreover, North Carolina and Texas could potentially approve full medical programs by 2025, highlighting the significant market opportunities in these states despite current restrictions on cannabis.

 

Apart from Washington D.C., where possession and use of cannabis for adult use are legal, but there is no legal marketplace or sale, all the states with the highest density of cannabis consumers have operational adult-use markets. As such, there is tremendous potential for legal cannabis to expand into more large consumer markets in the coming years.

 

Increased Competition, Oversupply, and Falling Prices

Newly legal state cannabis markets saw an influx of dollars, pushing total cannabis sales to almost $30 billion in 2022. However, the most established adult-use markets in the country faced stiff regional competition, oversupply, and declining prices throughout the year. For the first time since their legalization in 2014, Washington and Colorado both experienced a drop in annual sales, and the three oldest legal cannabis state markets had double-digit sales declines year-over-year from 2021.

 

Competition in the market, caused by the activation of a new legal market within a dual legal state market as the new adult-use market competes with the existing medical one and between a state’s illicit and legal markets, creates downward pressure on cannabis prices. The speed of the price decline is influenced by the market’s regulatory structure, with prices generally declining more slowly in limited license markets than in unlimited license markets and more slowly in medical markets than in adult-use markets.

 

The effects on the cannabis market are not solely determined by market competition and regulatory structure. Other factors, such as the speed of retail outlet openings following legalization, state tax rates, and the quality and diversity of products available, also play a significant role.

 

Expanding Legalization and the Erosion of the Illicit Market

By 2030, it is expected that about 69 million adults in the U.S. will consume cannabis at least once per year, buying from both illegal and legal markets. Even with solid sales in legal state markets amounting to a combined $30 billion in 2022, most U.S. cannabis demand is still being met by the illicit market, with an estimated $76 billion spent on illegal sources across the country in 2022

 

North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia are the three largest illicit cannabis markets among states without legal medical or adult-use sales. These unregulated markets are estimated to have generated a combined $12.1 billion in 2022 and are projected to reach $18 billion by 2030 if cannabis remains illegal.

 

However, legalization efforts have successfully disrupted illicit markets, and legal medical and adult-use needs are increasingly expected to meet demand previously served by illegal sources. In 2022, 28% of U.S. cannabis sales were from legal channels, but by 2030, it’s expected to reach 48%. If all 18 potential markets legalize within their expected timelines, the legal market could meet almost 60% of the total cannabis demand by 2030.

 

Conclusion

The cannabis market in the US is expanding and changing as more people become interested in it and it becomes legal in more states. While the illicit market currently dominates, the trend toward legalization is upsetting the criminal economy and contributing to the rising demand for legal cannabis.

 

Cannabis legalization will increase market share as additional states legalize it, potentially reaching 60% of global demand by 2030. The legal cannabis industry has a promising future overall, but issues such as regulatory barriers, regional competition, and oversupply remain to be resolved.

 

CANNABIS MARKET SIZE, READ ON…

CANNABIS MARKET SIZE

HOW BIG WILL THE MARIJUANA GET BY THE END OF THE DECADE?



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Arizona Cannabis Sales Go Beyond $1.4 Billion

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Arizona’s record-breaking cannabis market

In the landscape of booming and busting cannabis markets, Arizona emerges as a standout success story. A naturally beautiful state that attracts a sizeable group of tourists every year, Arizona skyrocketed past $1 billion in total cannabis sales for 2023. Unlike its northern neighbor of Nevada, Arizona has exceeded $1 billion in sales for three consecutive years, with 4.9% increase from ‘22 to ‘23 to boot. (Nevada, conversely, suffered from a nearly $115 million shortfall from FY 2022 to 2023 despite several millions more tourists than Arizona.)

Cannabis taxation and market comparisons

Compared to other states with recreationally legal cannabis, Arizona packs a considerably lower tax rate, levied as a 16% excise levy. Compare:

  • Nevada levies a 25% tax rate, combining both wholesale and retail excise taxes
  • Washington has an absurdly high 37% retail excise tax rate
  • Montana taxes recreational cannabis sales at 20%

As of FY 2022, the per capita rate for excise taxes is also incredibly lower in Arizona than other recreationally legal states, at only $18. The only two states as of FY 2022 that had a lower per capita rate were both Maine and Michigan. Ironically, the two states with the highest per capita rate are also the first two states to legalize cannabis recreationally, Colorado and Washington, which have rates of $61 and $67 respectively.

Shift towards recreational cannabis sales

Recreational sales have become the life blood of the Arizona cannabis industry. Medical cannabis sales and the number of registered patients in the process are in decline. Whereas recreational sales accounted for only 45% of sales during the first year of retail sales in 2021, adult-use sales then increased to 70% in 2022. In 2023, recreational cannabis sales reached 72%, almost 30% larger than two years prior. Every month since July of 2022, the Arizona cannabis industry has exceeded $80 million in total retail sales.

Impact of regulatory environment on market performance

Like Nevada, Arizona cannabis retail stores benefit from rules that allow cannabis sales after midnight, and allow dispensaries to operate 24/7. Interestingly, unlike e.g. Montana or Minnesota, Arizona doesn’t benefit from any geographic advantage and is mostly surrounded by states with recreationally legal cannabis. This means that out-of-state visitors and business that Arizona receives from Utah certainly wouldn’t be as much as what Nevada draws in its two biggest cities. Yet, the Arizona cannabis industry is outperforming their northern neighbor, despite not possessing all the glitz and glamor of Las Vegas.

While cannabis professionals in the not so prosperous states of California and Oregon are watching some of the biggest juggernauts of business fully exit from their respective states, the billion-dollar Arizona market is seeing no such industry exodus. In particular, Curaleaf has become the best known example of a multi-state operator exiting a state completely, announcing their departure of “the majority of its operations” in California, Oregon and Colorado in 2023 and other East Coast states as well. Yet, that same MSO company has found thriving success in the Arizona market.

“Arizona has been a strong success story for us, and has become one of the top markets in the country for Curaleaf.” explained Curaleaf Vice President of Real Estate Luke Flood. “Uniquely, Arizona offers one of the lowest prices per gram at the retail level in the country.”

Allocation of Arizona cannabis tax revenue

Unlike other states which keep cannabis tax revenue allocations vague, Arizona specifically provides which causes and projects will benefit from the $172.8 million in 2023 excise tax revenue, and at what percentages.

  • 33% will be allocated to community college and provisional community college districts.
  • 25% will be sent to the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund.
  • 10% will go to the justice reinvestment fund, a program focused on providing health services and other social services, as well as job training for those unfairly impacted by previous cannabis prohibition.
  • 10% will go to the justice reinvestment fund, a program which focuses on providing health services and other social services as well as job training for those unfairly impacted by previous cannabis prohibition.
  • 10% will go to the justice reinvestment fund, a program which focuses on providing health services and other social services as well as job training for those unfairly impacted by previous cannabis prohibition.
  • 3% will go to public safety, which means all branches of first responders.

Arizona’s cannabis industry outlook

Arizona’s cannabis industry stands as a beacon of success, breaking records and showcasing sustainable growth. The politically diverse state’s ability to surpass the $1 billion mark in sales for three consecutive years, despite having less tourists than adjacent Nevada, demonstrates the industry’s robustness. The state’s comparatively lower tax rates have also contributed to its success, making it an attractive market for both consumers and businesses. Finally, Arizona’s strategic location and regulatory environment have allowed it to thrive, even without the glitz and glamor of Las Vegas.

As the Arizona cannabis industry continues to evolve and expand, it will be fascinating to observe its future trajectory and impact on the broader cannabis landscape. Stay tuned.



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Hemp Bioplastics to End Forever Chemicals and PFAS Molecules?

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hemp bioplastics for forever chemicals

Ohio Hemp Company, based in Dayton, has signed a substantial deal with Heartland Industries, headquartered in Detroit. According to this new deal, the Ohio Hemp business will supply hemp fibre to aid the development of bioplastic, which will then be used in the fabrication of automobile components by a Belgian business.

 

Following the federal legalization of hemp under the 2018 Farm Bill, Ohio Republican Governor Mike DeWine supports the state’s legalization of the substance in 2019. TJ Richardson and Justin Helt, proprietors of Ohio Hemp Company, were among the first farmers in Ohio to produce hemp. They began a planting effort in 2020 with 11,000 cannabinoid hemp plants in an attempt to capitalize on the then-growing CBD business.

 

Through this partnership, Ohio Hemp Company increases its customer base to include a processor in Michigan, marking a significant new milestone. The company’s position in the market is strengthened by this strategic collaboration, which allows it to source raw hemp material to create bioplastics.

 

Shifting Focus: Transitioning to Hemp for Grain and Fiber Production

 

Following the downturn in the CBD market, Richardson and Helt shifted their focus to cultivating hemp plants optimized for grain and fibre production rather than CBD and other cannabinoids. Recognizing the versatility of hemp, the company continued to explore various opportunities within the crop.

 

Helt shared insights with agricultural news outlet Farm and Dairy, citing his grandfather’s belief that hemp represents a significant development in agriculture akin to the emergence of soybeans in the 1950s. This perspective underscores the potential growth trajectory for hemp within the state.

 

From the inception of their venture, Richardson and Helt understood the manifold applications of hemp. Transitioning away from CBD-centric hemp cultivation, they sought out local businesses in Ohio utilizing hemp in their products. This quest led them to Heartland Industries, a Detroit-based hemp processing facility established in 2020. In 2022, a partnership was forged between Heartland Industries and Ravago, a Belgian bioplastics manufacturer, wherein hemp fibre supplied by the former would be utilized.

 

Tim Almond, chairman and co-founder of Heartland Industries, acknowledged the challenges faced by his company and collaborating farmers in navigating the cultivation and processing of hemp. With decades of prohibition, much of the knowledge and equipment associated with hemp had either been lost or redirected to other crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. Consequently, there was a learning curve in reacquainting themselves with hemp cultivation techniques and technology.

 

Heartland Industries utilizes hemp fibre sourced from Ohio Hemp Company and other Midwest farmers to produce small hemp pellets known as nurdles. Following this initial processing stage, the nurdles are dispatched to Ravago, where they are blended with plastic nurdles to create a bioplastic comprising 70% plastic and 30% hemp fibre. This bioplastic is subsequently employed in the fabrication of automotive parts.

 

Almond emphasized the importance of environmental considerations in product development, highlighting the challenges of balancing environmental benefits with cost and performance factors. He noted that Heartland Industries has achieved a harmonious equilibrium within the plastic manufacturing realm, incorporating hemp as a 30% ingredient in the recipe. This approach not only yields cost savings and weight reduction but also maintains performance standards while significantly reducing the carbon footprint.

 

Expansion and Innovation: Ohio Hemp Company’s Growth Strategy

 

Initially, Heartland Industries established partnerships with farmers in Michigan to streamline its hemp sourcing and enhance operational efficiency. However, as the hemp fiber market expanded, the company extended its collaborations to include growers from neighboring states such as Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.

 

In 2022, Ohio Hemp Company embarked on cultivating and researching dual-purpose hemp varieties capable of yielding both fiber and grain. With the successful cultivation of 100 acres of this crop last year, the company is poised to double its efforts, aiming to plant 200 acres of dual-purpose hemp this year, fueled by the recent contract with Heartland Industries.

 

This new agreement between the hemp grower and Heartland Industries constitutes a purchase contract, operating on a non-binding, year-to-year basis, ensuring a steady supply of hemp fiber. Ohio Hemp Company is actively expanding its infrastructure to accommodate its growing operations, investing in a new processing and storage facility while also researching innovative hemp varieties.

 

Helt expressed enthusiasm regarding the contract with Heartland Industries and other developments within his company, emphasizing the burgeoning demand for hemp in the region. He remarked on the significance of having a major processor with substantial demand, noting that all the elements necessary for building a comprehensive hemp industry—from cultivation to consumer products—are finally falling into place, heralding a promising future for the sector.

 

Cultivating Sustainable Solutions: Ohio Hemp Company’s Commitment to Environmental Stewardship

 

Ohio Hemp Company is still very much devoted to environmental stewardship even as it grows and develops strategic alliances. The organization has adopted a concept of sustainability that goes beyond just profitability, realizing the ecological advantages inherent in hemp growing. Ohio Hemp Company responds to the changing market conditions while staying true to its fundamental principles of supporting sustainable farming methods by giving priority to the growing of hemp optimized for grain and fiber production rather than CBD-centric variants.

 

Ohio Hemp Company is involved in the development of bioplastics, a viable substitute for traditional plastics with a far lower environmental effect, in partnership with Heartland Industries and other local farmers. This collaboration enables hemp fiber to be used as a vital component in the production of bioplastics, providing the automobile sector with an environmentally responsible and sustainable option. This dedication to using hemp to produce bioplastics is a reflection of Ohio Hemp Company’s proactive approach to tackling environmental issues while promoting regional economic development and innovation.

 

Ohio Hemp Company is firmly establishing itself as a pioneer in sustainable agriculture as it expands its hemp crop to include dual-purpose varieties capable of producing both fiber and grains. The company positions itself at the forefront of the expanding hemp sector by investing in infrastructure and research, enabling it to meet the growing demand for environmentally friendly alternatives. Ohio Hemp Company is dedicated to innovation and environmental stewardship, and it aims to guide the industry and agricultural sectors towards a more sustainable future.

 

Bottom Line

 

Ohio Hemp Company’s partnership with Heartland Industries marks a significant step forward in the development of sustainable solutions within the hemp industry. By prioritizing environmental stewardship and innovation, Ohio Hemp Company not only navigates market shifts but also drives positive change in agriculture and industry. Through strategic alliances, research initiatives, and a commitment to sustainability, Ohio Hemp Company is poised to lead the way towards a more environmentally responsible and economically viable future for the hemp sector and beyond.

 

HEMP BIOPLASTICS, READ ON…

WHY AREN'T WE USING HEMP PLASTIC

WAIT, WHY ARE WE NOT USING HEMP PLASTICS YET? READ THIS!

 



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How Worried Should You Be about Heavy Metals in Your Rolling Papers?

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heavy metals rolling papers

Inhaling dangerous metals from rolling papers is a possible health risk for cannabis users, according to a recent study published in ACS Omega. These studies had high concentrations of heavy metals such as copper, chromium, and vanadium, which alarmed researchers since they may pose health problems.

 

The investigation delved into the metal composition of 53 varieties of rolling papers and cones widely used in the cannabis industry. The findings should serve as a warning to both occasional and frequent cannabis consumers alike.

 

Uncovering Significant Findings and Associated Health Risks

 

The investigative team at Michigan’s Lake Superior State University embarked on a thorough examination of 53 different types of rolling papers and cones utilized within the cannabis industry. Their findings, published in ACS Omega, revealed a startling discovery: approximately one-quarter of the tested products surpassed established safety thresholds for metal inhalation, with copper levels being particularly noteworthy. These heightened concentrations were notably prevalent in papers featuring colorful designs or metallic embellishments, often favored for their aesthetic appeal by consumers.

 

Of grave concern to researchers was the potential neurological impact of these metals, especially when present in colored papers. The study underscores the alarming prospect of neurotoxic effects linked to prolonged exposure, potentially implicating a heightened risk of neurodegenerative diseases. Derek Wright, co-author of the study, expressed dismay at the lack of governmental oversight, particularly in states where regulations for cannabis flowers do not extend to rolling papers. This regulatory gap underscores the urgency for comprehensive oversight to safeguard consumers, especially those relying on cannabis for therapeutic purposes.

 

Wright’s observations illuminate a disconcerting reality: many consumers assume that regulatory bodies oversee the safety of products associated with cannabis consumption. However, the absence of stringent regulations surrounding rolling papers poses a tangible threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Individuals leveraging cannabis for medicinal purposes, often grappling with pre-existing health conditions, could unknowingly expose themselves to further harm through the inhalation of toxic metals.

 

In essence, the study’s revelations serve as a clarion call for swift action within the industry and regulatory spheres. Strong supervision procedures must be put in place as soon as possible, and safety regulations must be strictly followed in all areas of cannabis use. In addition to endangering customer safety, delaying the resolution of these issues damages the legitimacy and long-term viability of the emerging cannabis industry.

 

Advocating for Industry Response and Regulatory Reform

 

The cannabis business and regulatory agencies have both loudly called for action in response to the release of these data. Concerned about the study’s ramifications, experts stress the urgent need for stricter laws and a radical change to safer production methods. Co-author of the research Derek Wright emphasizes how crucial it is to pinpoint the origins of potentially dangerous compounds in order to facilitate the creation of safer goods.

 

Daniel Curtis, an analytical and atmospheric chemist consulted on the matter, underscores the importance of future research endeavors. He advocates for a deeper understanding of how metals transfer from rolling papers through the combustion process. Such insights could inform targeted interventions aimed at mitigating exposure risks and enhancing consumer safety. With cannabis consumption on the ascent, the imperative to identify and address sources of toxic chemicals grows ever more urgent.

 

The study’s consequences go well beyond the confines of scholarly research and have a significant impact on the hallways of industry. In order to put consumer welfare first and enact evidence-based reforms, stakeholders must work together in a coordinated effort. Regulatory agencies may protect the public’s health and promote innovation by establishing a culture of openness and responsibility. In order to overcome these obstacles and reach its full potential as a catalyst for responsible growth, the cannabis sector will need to work together and demonstrate unshakable dedication.

 

Pioneering Safer Smoking Solutions: Innovations Towards Harm Reduction

 

As worries about the safety of rolling papers grow, forward-thinking businesses are leading campaigns to reduce dangers and encourage safer smoking environments. Leading the pack of these innovators is RAW, which is well-known for its dedication to transforming the cannabis industry. In their most recent project, RAW presents a novel rolling paper designed to reduce any impurities while highlighting the organic tastes found in cannabis. With a focus on the health and happiness of the customer, this invention signifies a paradigm change in product design.

 

The foreword to RAW’s groundbreaking study highlights the industry’s increasing realization of how important it is to give damage reduction methods top priority. RAW is working to raise the bar for cannabis accessory safety and purity by using state-of-the-art manufacturing methods and strict quality control procedures. The notably thinner paper not only makes smoking more enjoyable, but also demonstrates RAW’s ongoing commitment to customer welfare.

 

Beyond product innovation, RAW’s mission represents a larger culture of business responsibility and social concern. By promoting safer smoking options, the firm hopes to provide customers with educated choices and build a harm-reduction culture within the cannabis community. Furthermore, RAW’s proactive strategy establishes a precedent for industry-wide collaboration and responsibility, igniting a collective effort to solve systemic concerns while maintaining the greatest levels of safety and integrity.

 

Customer safety must continue to be the priority as the cannabis business develops and diversifies. RAW’s creative efforts are a ray of hope, encouraging other industry participants to take the lead in damage reduction. Through leveraging innovation and teamwork, the cannabis sector may steer towards a more secure and sustainable future where the welfare of users is the top priority.

 

Bottom Line

 

The study’s findings underscore the urgent need for regulatory reform and industry response to address the presence of toxic metals in commercially available cannabis rolling papers. With significant health risks posed by inhaling heavy metals such as copper, chromium, and vanadium, consumers, especially those using cannabis for therapeutic purposes, are at risk. The absence of stringent regulations governing rolling papers highlights a critical gap in oversight, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive safety measures to safeguard public health. Advocacy for safer production practices and innovative solutions, exemplified by initiatives like RAW’s pioneering rolling paper, is essential to mitigate risks and promote harm reduction within the cannabis community. Ultimately, prioritizing consumer safety and implementing evidence-based reforms are paramount for the sustainable growth and legitimacy of the emerging cannabis industry.

 

TOXIC METAL LEVELS IN CANNABIS, READ ON…

TOXIC METAL LEVELS IN CANNABIS USERS BLOOD AND URINE

WHY ARE HEAVY METALS TESTING OUT SO HIGH IN CANNABIS USERS BLOOD?



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